Joe Eastman PhD
@jlerollblues.bsky.social
Covid modeler/research, @TheWHN volunteer, free pathogen newsletter at josepheastman.substack.com, former NASA scientist, renewable energy scientist, atmospheric scientist, ecologist, and modeler of about any system https://substack.com/@josepheastman
I hope to have a MAPS forecast ready early next week. However my old forecast issued on 6-21 is still exhibiting good agreement. I will update the graph with the latest wastewater tomorrow. Thank you for your time. Please DM me with any feedback. 🧪
August 29, 2025 at 2:41 AM
I hope to have a MAPS forecast ready early next week. However my old forecast issued on 6-21 is still exhibiting good agreement. I will update the graph with the latest wastewater tomorrow. Thank you for your time. Please DM me with any feedback. 🧪
weekly basis. You can also access our wastewater data there by clicking on the data tab. Here is the latest wastewater derived New Daily Infections (NDIs). Displayed is the range of estimated infections from wastewater data, with the “Min” curve representing a scenario based on 🧪
August 29, 2025 at 2:41 AM
weekly basis. You can also access our wastewater data there by clicking on the data tab. Here is the latest wastewater derived New Daily Infections (NDIs). Displayed is the range of estimated infections from wastewater data, with the “Min” curve representing a scenario based on 🧪
Here is a sample from our (@TheWhn, @ZurNull) latest variant proportions product. We still need to automate it , and it will be put out weekly. Currently it includes 568 variants. Coincidently, my MAPS forecasts will also be put on our website, whn.global, on a 🧪
August 29, 2025 at 2:41 AM
Here is a sample from our (@TheWhn, @ZurNull) latest variant proportions product. We still need to automate it , and it will be put out weekly. Currently it includes 568 variants. Coincidently, my MAPS forecasts will also be put on our website, whn.global, on a 🧪
From @alexander_tin on X: The @CDCgov's airport screening program with @Ginkgo has now detected multiple cases of the new COVID-19 variant NB.1.8.1, which has been linked to a recent surge in China. 50% higher RGA. Summer is likely.
May 23, 2025 at 3:07 AM
From @alexander_tin on X: The @CDCgov's airport screening program with @Ginkgo has now detected multiple cases of the new COVID-19 variant NB.1.8.1, which has been linked to a recent surge in China. 50% higher RGA. Summer is likely.
smaller states, 39 in total. The graphs indicate even more temporal variability, and the peaks are separated even more than in the larger states. It is also apparent that the curves are much noisier. There are several reasons for this that I will go into in my next substack. This 🧪
February 28, 2025 at 3:57 AM
smaller states, 39 in total. The graphs indicate even more temporal variability, and the peaks are separated even more than in the larger states. It is also apparent that the curves are much noisier. There are several reasons for this that I will go into in my next substack. This 🧪
a little closer at the state level. I separate them by population size. Those >6 million and those less than 5 million. On the left is the larger states. What should be clear is that they all have different temporal distributions in terms of onset and peak. Now, let's look at the 🧪
February 28, 2025 at 3:57 AM
a little closer at the state level. I separate them by population size. Those >6 million and those less than 5 million. On the left is the larger states. What should be clear is that they all have different temporal distributions in terms of onset and peak. Now, let's look at the 🧪
When you look at graphs of new daily infections nationally, what you see is not the entire picture. For instance, here is the most recent MAPS forecast for the next four months. It appears to be a fairly smooth curve. However, that is not the entire picture. Let's look 🧪
February 28, 2025 at 3:57 AM
When you look at graphs of new daily infections nationally, what you see is not the entire picture. For instance, here is the most recent MAPS forecast for the next four months. It appears to be a fairly smooth curve. However, that is not the entire picture. Let's look 🧪
Today on
@mattmcneilshow.bsky.social
he interviews Chris Kluwe at 3:03 CT. Chris is a hero in my eyes, see below. He once debated empty chairs because the same sex marriage opponents would not show up. This should be good! You see that here:https://youtu.be/vt7Nx5XzJ_c
@mattmcneilshow.bsky.social
he interviews Chris Kluwe at 3:03 CT. Chris is a hero in my eyes, see below. He once debated empty chairs because the same sex marriage opponents would not show up. This should be good! You see that here:https://youtu.be/vt7Nx5XzJ_c
February 20, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Today on
@mattmcneilshow.bsky.social
he interviews Chris Kluwe at 3:03 CT. Chris is a hero in my eyes, see below. He once debated empty chairs because the same sex marriage opponents would not show up. This should be good! You see that here:https://youtu.be/vt7Nx5XzJ_c
@mattmcneilshow.bsky.social
he interviews Chris Kluwe at 3:03 CT. Chris is a hero in my eyes, see below. He once debated empty chairs because the same sex marriage opponents would not show up. This should be good! You see that here:https://youtu.be/vt7Nx5XzJ_c
Here is an updated graph of the yearly comparisons of New Daily Infections (NDIs) derived from wastewater data. The graph is the same but by variant. Look at the "thinning" of variants after the KP.3.1.1 crushed the others 🧪
January 3, 2025 at 3:52 AM
Here is an updated graph of the yearly comparisons of New Daily Infections (NDIs) derived from wastewater data. The graph is the same but by variant. Look at the "thinning" of variants after the KP.3.1.1 crushed the others 🧪
Thank you. It is looking like a late March early April wave is coming 😞 keeping my eye on LP.8.1 and XE* what a strange winter surge (see below) I’m updating the graph right now and will share it soon. Kp.3.1.1 has crushed the other variants. Here is my last forecast
January 3, 2025 at 2:21 AM
Thank you. It is looking like a late March early April wave is coming 😞 keeping my eye on LP.8.1 and XE* what a strange winter surge (see below) I’m updating the graph right now and will share it soon. Kp.3.1.1 has crushed the other variants. Here is my last forecast
As a scientist and COVID modeler, you can continue doing that for quite a bit longer. Here is a partial forecast from my model, MAPS, with an April horizon. The other is what is currently going on compared to past years. 🧪
December 11, 2024 at 9:41 PM
As a scientist and COVID modeler, you can continue doing that for quite a bit longer. Here is a partial forecast from my model, MAPS, with an April horizon. The other is what is currently going on compared to past years. 🧪
A little perspective on what we are seeing this year compared to the previous 3 years. LP.8.1 will likely not impact the coming month. Typical when a future dominant variant hits 1% nationally we will see it take off. LP.8.1, if that happened to be what you see, will still have
December 10, 2024 at 10:16 AM
A little perspective on what we are seeing this year compared to the previous 3 years. LP.8.1 will likely not impact the coming month. Typical when a future dominant variant hits 1% nationally we will see it take off. LP.8.1, if that happened to be what you see, will still have
with N95's we could really put a dent in the NDI's. Stay tuned. I will get the forecast out ASAP. I will add a couple variants I think might make waves but they will not be here before the end of the year. This includes XEC.4 and LP.8.1. We might be entering another recombinant phase like before.🧪
December 7, 2024 at 11:30 PM
with N95's we could really put a dent in the NDI's. Stay tuned. I will get the forecast out ASAP. I will add a couple variants I think might make waves but they will not be here before the end of the year. This includes XEC.4 and LP.8.1. We might be entering another recombinant phase like before.🧪
with MAPS. Turns out nothing was wrong. You will likely see a minimal bump at the end of the year to. Finally,XEC has replaced KP.3.1.1 as the top dog. Nothing startling on the horizon. Now would be a great time to mask up. As the model has demonstrated getting 15-20% compliance (old forecast shown)
December 7, 2024 at 11:30 PM
with MAPS. Turns out nothing was wrong. You will likely see a minimal bump at the end of the year to. Finally,XEC has replaced KP.3.1.1 as the top dog. Nothing startling on the horizon. Now would be a great time to mask up. As the model has demonstrated getting 15-20% compliance (old forecast shown)
Here is the most up-to-date wastewater data we "trust" (whn.global/estimation-o...). We are inclined to believe it lies closer to the maximum calculation (see webpage). The right-hand panel shows what MAPS had forecast three weeks ago. I am working on a new forecast with today's 🧪
December 7, 2024 at 11:30 PM
Here is the most up-to-date wastewater data we "trust" (whn.global/estimation-o...). We are inclined to believe it lies closer to the maximum calculation (see webpage). The right-hand panel shows what MAPS had forecast three weeks ago. I am working on a new forecast with today's 🧪
Many of us at the @TheWHN worked many hours on this PSA and it has began getting a lot of attention. Thanks! whn.global/public-servi...
December 4, 2024 at 10:52 PM
Many of us at the @TheWHN worked many hours on this PSA and it has began getting a lot of attention. Thanks! whn.global/public-servi...
Here is the latest MAPS Forecast. Keep in mind I have not had a chance to evaluate my new state-by-state initialization. I surmised we would have a small holiday/winter wave nearly two months ago, did not think it would be this small though. MAPS does not have XEC overtaking until mid-December …
November 23, 2024 at 5:23 AM
Here is the latest MAPS Forecast. Keep in mind I have not had a chance to evaluate my new state-by-state initialization. I surmised we would have a small holiday/winter wave nearly two months ago, did not think it would be this small though. MAPS does not have XEC overtaking until mid-December …
KP.3.1.1 until mid-December. All said I would not be surprised if the holiday/winter wave is 15-20% larger. Much better than last year! I will work on a new forecast this weekend with the new variant analysis. Nothing new on the horizon, MC.1 is creeping, JN.1.16.1 is rising.
November 23, 2024 at 5:19 AM
KP.3.1.1 until mid-December. All said I would not be surprised if the holiday/winter wave is 15-20% larger. Much better than last year! I will work on a new forecast this weekend with the new variant analysis. Nothing new on the horizon, MC.1 is creeping, JN.1.16.1 is rising.
Here is the latest MAPS Forecast. Keep in mind I have not had a chance to evaluate my new state-by-state initialization. I surmised we would have a small holiday/winter wave nearly two months ago, did not think it would be this small though. MAPS does not have XEC overtaking until mid-December
November 23, 2024 at 5:19 AM
Here is the latest MAPS Forecast. Keep in mind I have not had a chance to evaluate my new state-by-state initialization. I surmised we would have a small holiday/winter wave nearly two months ago, did not think it would be this small though. MAPS does not have XEC overtaking until mid-December
Here is a quick study using the model ensemble forecast as the baseline with a 2.5% masking compliance rate employing N95’s (78% eff) I increased compliance from 5-95% in 10% increments and repeated the forecast. Just getting the public to 15% would make a huge difference.
September 24, 2024 at 5:00 AM
Here is a quick study using the model ensemble forecast as the baseline with a 2.5% masking compliance rate employing N95’s (78% eff) I increased compliance from 5-95% in 10% increments and repeated the forecast. Just getting the public to 15% would make a huge difference.