So the numbers back the visceral feeling that committing a defensive penalty (particularly on 2nd and long!) is going to lead to points against; but overall, unless you are doing that multiple times per game, it is just a factor, not THE factor. Once again, great analysis! Thanks!

Great analysis! I've always thought the Argos win in weird ways. This totally backs that up! I recall a few years ago seeing that a defensive penalty increases the likelihood of a score by a significant percentage. Have you come across that in the numbers?