If you've been sitting on the fence waiting to buy, get in touch.

The statistics are showing that we've had a small decline in prices over the past two months. I'm not sure if that is real or reflecting increased activity for less-expensive properties (the paradox of the median), but I'm no longer feeling like we should expect that trend to continue until spring.

This is all anecdotal, of course. Usually here in the A.V., things are quiet during the winter and then get nuts around April, making winter a great time to buy, but I'm not going to be surprised if the runup comes early this year.

As always, I'll be keeping on eye on the market. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. But I'm also more likely to be right than someone who doesn't have their finger on the pulse of the industry.

If you're thinking of buying, these fall months can be good time, as sellers who didn't find a buyer in the prime months are starting to get concerned and are more willing to negotiate. This is the time of year and the type of market where deals can be found.

If you need to sell, you're going to need to remember that it's not a simple as listing your house and collecting the offers any more. Homes need to be priced right for the buyer they're likely to attract. I can help you figure out what you need to do to get it sold.

Instead, I feel like we're more likely looking at an equilibrium. Buyers can't afford for prices to go any higher. If they come down, they'll be bid back up to around where they are now. So I expect to see the statistics seesawing around where we are now for a while.

Second, the housing shortage still remains very, very real.

I expect that if real home prices roll down, even a little, buyers will be back in large numbers and will bid them right back up.

First and foremost, remember that I'm sharing anecdotes, not statistics. The statistics will lag a few months, but they're going to paint the better picture when we've got them.

So does that mean we're finally experiencing a market correction?

Not necessarily.

For the past couple of years now, the median has been stable or declining, but I've still been seeing intense interest in less expensive homes, sometimes even bidding wars.

For the past couple of months, it's been much harder to sell even those less-expensive homes again.

For a while we've had what call "the paradox of the median." The median home price is where half of homes sold sell for more, and half of homes sold sell for less.

So when there is more activity in the lower-priced side of the market, it pulls the median down, even if prices are actually rising.

So, inherently, I'm not alarmed that prices are declining slightly and homes are taking longer to sell.

Anecdotally, what I'm seeing change that I think is significant is less interest in lower-priced homes.

OK, so the market normally slows down in the 4th quarter of the year. Here in the AV, we get two bursts of activity. The first is when orders come out at Edwards around April. The second is the usual summertime burst that most markets have. As holidays start rolling around, the market quiets down.