Jim Ricketts
@jiminy-hr.bsky.social
Volunteer firefighter. Climate change scientist.
Initially a diagnostic microbiologist. Then a Masters in IT/AI I have provided software engineering in medical research, publishing, and finally settled in climate. Late age PhD which was stymied by COVID.
Initially a diagnostic microbiologist. Then a Masters in IT/AI I have provided software engineering in medical research, publishing, and finally settled in climate. Late age PhD which was stymied by COVID.
… and following on from the extraordinarily late season fires in the last month of autumn, we have had the extraordinarily early, first of the season, multi strike team response to bushfires at Beringa. This, in the first month of spring.
www.thecourier.com.au/story/907712...
www.thecourier.com.au/story/907712...
Watch and act warning issued for fast-moving grass, scrub fire near Berringa
More than 20 crews are battling the first major blaze of the season.
www.thecourier.com.au
September 30, 2025 at 9:38 PM
… and following on from the extraordinarily late season fires in the last month of autumn, we have had the extraordinarily early, first of the season, multi strike team response to bushfires at Beringa. This, in the first month of spring.
www.thecourier.com.au/story/907712...
www.thecourier.com.au/story/907712...
Just to preempt two things.
1. Yes. Oscillating temperature signals superposed on a rising trend *could* look like a series of steps - with a totally different meaning. The first thing one considers.
2. Tipping points can manifest as steps, as can regime shifts. The energetics are vastly different.
1. Yes. Oscillating temperature signals superposed on a rising trend *could* look like a series of steps - with a totally different meaning. The first thing one considers.
2. Tipping points can manifest as steps, as can regime shifts. The energetics are vastly different.
May 31, 2025 at 5:52 AM
Just to preempt two things.
1. Yes. Oscillating temperature signals superposed on a rising trend *could* look like a series of steps - with a totally different meaning. The first thing one considers.
2. Tipping points can manifest as steps, as can regime shifts. The energetics are vastly different.
1. Yes. Oscillating temperature signals superposed on a rising trend *could* look like a series of steps - with a totally different meaning. The first thing one considers.
2. Tipping points can manifest as steps, as can regime shifts. The energetics are vastly different.
From a very early start to the fire season, how are things as they stand right now? (See attached)Tomorrow is a total fire ban (again). I will be assigned to Ground Observations (again), and whilst in theory I could be operating anywhere in the state, it's probable we will stay close to home.
February 21, 2025 at 4:34 AM
From a very early start to the fire season, how are things as they stand right now? (See attached)Tomorrow is a total fire ban (again). I will be assigned to Ground Observations (again), and whilst in theory I could be operating anywhere in the state, it's probable we will stay close to home.
Here's the situation at the end of NYD. Mild days, humidity not low, winds generally Southerly. But overall, a drought, with very little ground moisture, and the fire season started early.
January 1, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Here's the situation at the end of NYD. Mild days, humidity not low, winds generally Southerly. But overall, a drought, with very little ground moisture, and the fire season started early.
For VPD to remain constant, Specific Humidity has to rise relatively faster than average temperatures, and in our environment it has to do so in the driest and hottest season.
December 29, 2024 at 11:56 AM
For VPD to remain constant, Specific Humidity has to rise relatively faster than average temperatures, and in our environment it has to do so in the driest and hottest season.
As of now, for now, the fire is mostly staying within the control lines
December 29, 2024 at 11:49 AM
As of now, for now, the fire is mostly staying within the control lines
The fire season is already a month in, and according to locals, as dry as anyone alive has records of. The real point for me, is that while we talk about the contribution that RH changes make to fire behaviour, it's a simple fact that vapour pressure deficits (VPD) drive vegetative drying.
December 29, 2024 at 11:44 AM
The fire season is already a month in, and according to locals, as dry as anyone alive has records of. The real point for me, is that while we talk about the contribution that RH changes make to fire behaviour, it's a simple fact that vapour pressure deficits (VPD) drive vegetative drying.
I returned last Friday night from strike teams duties. Obligatory smoke shot
December 29, 2024 at 11:38 AM
I returned last Friday night from strike teams duties. Obligatory smoke shot
Looks benign enough doesn't it. But the point where we took obs, is now kilometres into the black, and the burnt area is about 10 times bigger.
December 29, 2024 at 11:33 AM
Looks benign enough doesn't it. But the point where we took obs, is now kilometres into the black, and the burnt area is about 10 times bigger.
Here's a view from that day
December 29, 2024 at 11:24 AM
Here's a view from that day
And just maybe it's sensible to talk about fire-climates as well.
www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/7/...
www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/7/...
Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates
The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the main measure used in Australia for estimating fire risk. Recent work by the authors showed that the FFDI forms stable state regimes, nominated as fire climat...
www.mdpi.com
December 18, 2024 at 10:08 PM
And just maybe it's sensible to talk about fire-climates as well.
www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/7/...
www.mdpi.com/2571-6255/7/...
Fire indices are not changing smoothly either
www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11...
www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11...
Identifying and Attributing Regime Shifts in Australian Fire Climates
This paper introduces and analyzes fire climate regimes, steady-state conditions that govern the behavior of fire weather. A simple model representing fire climate was constructed by regressing high-q...
www.mdpi.com
December 18, 2024 at 10:05 PM
Fire indices are not changing smoothly either
www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11...
www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11...
But I also try to get time to contribute to science, and at my age I prefer to avoid me-too topics and papers, preferring to be data led.
Increasingly drying atmospheres MUSt affect fire. www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13...
Increasingly drying atmospheres MUSt affect fire. www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13...
Regime Changes in Atmospheric Moisture under Climate Change
Recent work attributing decadal regime changes in temperature to radiative forcing is extended to atmospheric moisture. Temperature, and specific and relative humidity (T, q, RH) from the HadISDH data...
www.mdpi.com
December 18, 2024 at 10:02 PM
But I also try to get time to contribute to science, and at my age I prefer to avoid me-too topics and papers, preferring to be data led.
Increasingly drying atmospheres MUSt affect fire. www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13...
Increasingly drying atmospheres MUSt affect fire. www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13...
I'm a regular responder, and the tanker at the bottom left is from my Brigade. I'm now a Ground Observer collecting weather ahead of the fire as well as potential exposures. That's the house to the right of the tanker. In this case we had scoped the forward run and reassessed 15-30min later
December 18, 2024 at 9:40 PM
I'm a regular responder, and the tanker at the bottom left is from my Brigade. I'm now a Ground Observer collecting weather ahead of the fire as well as potential exposures. That's the house to the right of the tanker. In this case we had scoped the forward run and reassessed 15-30min later
Watched. On a personal level. Here in SE Australia we have already had active fires and reported house losses. I do not know many involved in fire fighting who deny the drying but there are those who are sceptical of the causes but here I am. Late spring with hydrophobic soil and 1/4 in the dam.
November 18, 2024 at 12:56 AM
Watched. On a personal level. Here in SE Australia we have already had active fires and reported house losses. I do not know many involved in fire fighting who deny the drying but there are those who are sceptical of the causes but here I am. Late spring with hydrophobic soil and 1/4 in the dam.
Ah. Well there you are. Reminder to self, “There are more things on Heaven and Earth…”
November 18, 2024 at 12:47 AM
Ah. Well there you are. Reminder to self, “There are more things on Heaven and Earth…”
For context. Over a number of years I worked for CSIRO in what was then Atmospheric Research; and enjoyed chatting to the people from the Ice-Labs amongst others. But I didn't pick up on the idea that bubbles in ice could capture different processes at different scales of applicability.
November 18, 2024 at 12:32 AM
For context. Over a number of years I worked for CSIRO in what was then Atmospheric Research; and enjoyed chatting to the people from the Ice-Labs amongst others. But I didn't pick up on the idea that bubbles in ice could capture different processes at different scales of applicability.
I should have posted the link.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22481...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22481...
Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation - PubMed
The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and rela...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
November 18, 2024 at 12:24 AM
I should have posted the link.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22481...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22481...
Oddly enough the core assumptions of the dismissive are uniformly incorrect. That it promotes one side only of a positive feedback loop, is documented on RealClimate from at leat 2006. It's not my domain so I only recently came across this one however.
November 17, 2024 at 11:58 PM
Oddly enough the core assumptions of the dismissive are uniformly incorrect. That it promotes one side only of a positive feedback loop, is documented on RealClimate from at leat 2006. It's not my domain so I only recently came across this one however.