An outbreak of arctic air is growing increasingly likely from January 18-23 across a huge portion of the United States. This pattern should also feature several chances for winter weather, specifically along the thermal gradient in the Eastern US.

❄️☃️ If you’re in the Central or Eastern US, buckle up. Winter is about to arrive in full force with cold and several chances for snow. Here we go…

It should not be surprise, then, to see the ECMWF Weeklies so strongly indicating that snowfall chances will increase in places like NYC starting around 1/7 and continuing through mid-month. Here we go!

Two things that stick out to me on recent guidance:

1) The convergence on Greenland High/Alaskan Ridge regimes from 1/7 - 1/10 or so

2) The increasingly impressive signal for deep low pressure systems in New England/NW Atlantic during that time

All systems go for a major pattern change across North America during the first full week of January. High latitude blocking (-EPO/NAO) will encourage impressive low level cold and regime will remain active enough for snow chances in the Eastern US, too.

I am becoming increasingly convinced that the upcoming pattern will be the most favorable we have seen for winter weather in the Northeast US in at least a few years. No guarantees, but this is a very impressive configuration - effective for both low level cold and storm chances.

Confidence is quickly increasing in a shift back to a wintry pattern across NHEM - especially in the Eastern US - as we move towards mid January. These types of high latitude blocking configurations can be effective at producing low level cold *and* bringing chances for snow.

April 26th, 2024 brought several strong tornadoes to Nebraska and Iowa. I opted to take a different approach early in the day. This storm, closer to the surface low and enhanced 3cape/vorticity, produced a tornado as the precipitation separated downshear of the remnant updraft.

🔥 A Pacific Jet extension will allow milder air to surge into North America over the next few weeks, with a reduction in high-latitude blocking and temperatures trending several degrees above normal.

After the ongoing cold snap fades, there are signs that the weather pattern will trend much warmer across N. America. A prolonged -EAMT event & resurgence of La Niña will reinvigorate the Pacific Jet and stall the MJOs progress through warm phases. This generally encourages warmth into the Lower 48.

With extremely dry weather & blustery winds continuing over the next few days, the NJ Pine Barrens remain at an "extreme" burn, damage & structure exposure risk if any wildfire were to develop. Fingers crossed.

Learn more at the NJ Wildfire Risk Explorer: t.co/PpXRU18Wec

Global ensembles are slowly clustering and strengthening the signal for a retrograding -NAO block developing after 11/20 from Greenland into the Davis Strait. This will offer a window for cooler air in the Eastern US as well as the potential for a few early-season coastal storms.

While the pattern is exceptionally warm across the United States right now, there are some hints of change in extended guidance. A retrograding ridge across the N Atlantic could aid in the development of high-latitude blocking from Greenland into Canada from 11/20 onwards.

Stunning aurora dances in the skies over Southern Minnesota. October 10th, 2024.

Later today, a cold core-esq severe weather/storm chasing setup will transpire across parts of Kansas & Nebraska. Cold temps aloft (-18° C at 500hPa), a dryslot and associated sfc heating, 0-3km CAPE values 150+ with respectable wind profiles. One or more discrete supercells w/ all hazards possible.