Yes, but we can do nothing about it, and by treating this seriously and making all that fuss we are only aggravating the situation.

2/I think he’s really happy about the media stir he/Musk caused. They want exactly this: being perceived as irrational ruthless players as this might give them better position to achieve some of their goals (in a nonviolent;) way. All the criticism & uproar only serve these goals

12. It is not about land. Crimea and Donbas are not enough for Russia. From 🇷🇺perspective this war is a zero-sum game. Ukraine understands that. The West only partly. We need a change of mindset and we need to listen to what Moscow clearly says.

11. Ukraine and the West can prevail but Western leaders need to admit the false premises of current strategy & understand the stake of this war. Russia and China aim to undermine regional security alliances led by 🇺🇸 and change the international order to their favour.

10. First, by giving 🇺🇦 assurances of long term military deliveries. Second, by inviting Ukraine to NATO & showing 🇷🇺 that the game is over for its neoimperial ambitions. Russia can loose this war & we are in a position to make it happen in coming years without feared escalation.

9. Does Ukraine has chances to win? Yes, but the West needs to change its strategy & mindset. Not only we need to meet the short term needs of 🇺🇦defence, equip 🇺🇦 with additional weapons for the offensives in the coming year but also show 🇷🇺 that we are there for the long run.

8. Building up European capabilities takes time, and not all of European allies heard the wake-up call, share the analysis of Russian goals and feel the same urgency. European arms industry due to the lack of orders is in general only slowly catching up with reality.

7. 2️⃣ Let’s think about worst case scenarios. With a possible turmoil around 🇺🇸presidential elections, 🇷🇺might also test Western resolve by militarily pressing the eastern flank countries. It would bet on 🇺🇸willing to go for a deal, with the European allies being unprepared.

6. What scenarios are looming? 1️⃣ If 🇺🇸 support will be delayed or decreased, it might be challenging for 🇺🇦 to keep the current frontline already in the coming months. Are we prepared in Europe to replace the 🇺🇸 military deliveries to 🇺🇦of e.g. ammunition?

5. Even if 🇷🇺has troubles in maintaining the war effort, it has also clear political goals&will to scarify a lot to achieve what it wants. Would 🇷🇺want to negotiate now? I doubt. If so, then on its own terms claiming full subordination of🇺🇦. Would that be acceptable for🇺🇦 & us?

4. But 🇷🇺 doesn’t want a piece of 🇺🇦, 🇷🇺 wants control over whole 🇺🇦, and 🇷🇺strategic goals far beyond that. Russia aims to undermine the security&sovereignty of the eastern flank & Europe in general. 🇷🇺 sees our weakness and bets on prolonging the war to wear 🇺🇦 & the West off.

3. We see problems in🇺🇸 mounting with the next support package for🇺🇦. There is an increasing weariness in Western Europe to support🇺🇦 and unpreparedness to wage a long conflict. And there is willingness to delude oneself that after all we might find a deal & modus vivendi with🇷🇺.

2. Yes, it united the West & helped 🇺🇦 to survive and fight back. But it was devised on premises that are increasingly problematic/false: 1)the perseverance of the West in helping 🇺🇦 2)the belief that 🇷🇺will finally understand it cannot win the war and will admit it was a mistake.

🟢 Russia's invasion of Ukraine reaffirmed #Poland's commitment to its security policy and prompted more investment in defence. The country has now become an important player on NATO's eastern flank. Joanna Maria Stolarek interviews @jgotkowska.bsky.social ➡️ pl.boell.org/en/2023/09/2...