Joel Goldwein
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jgoldwein.bsky.social
Joel Goldwein
@jgoldwein.bsky.social
1.4K followers 850 following 320 posts
Retired MD, grandfather, husband, tinkerer. 3D printing, electronic design, drone enthusiast. Truth and justice. Science and data. Facts matter.
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jgoldwein.bsky.social
October 19, 2025 at 11:52 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
October 19, 2025 at 11:35 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
October 19, 2025 at 11:34 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 93/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: The alliance remains strained but superficially intact. No public affirmations, no public fallout. Stability is masking unresolved fracture potential.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 17, 2025 at 10:19 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 93/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: No change in posture or rhetoric. Musk’s legal shadow looms. Strategic silence suggests coordination—or paralysis.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 15, 2025 at 4:39 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 93/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: Ongoing silence reinforces assumptions of internal strain. No rebuttal to DOJ developments. Musk visibility waning amid market and legal headwinds.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 11, 2025 at 11:42 AM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 93/100
- Trend: Rising
- Urgent Notes: TSLA's continued plunge (-53% YTD) intensifies pressure on Musk’s credibility and Trump’s alliance. Rumors swirl of internal DOGE contingency planning.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 8, 2025 at 9:56 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 92/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: No formal Trump response to DOJ subpoena. Musk silent. Signals suggest internal strategy may be shifting, but fracture remains latent — not yet public.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 7, 2025 at 2:47 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 90/100
- Trend: Escalating
- Urgent Note: Musk DOJ subpoena under FARA intensifies legal scrutiny. Implications for Musk's involvement in DOGE/alignment with Trump over tariff policy.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 6, 2025 at 1:56 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 88/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: No visible progress or collapse. Continued lack of transparency reinforces the perception of silent strain between Trump and Musk.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 5, 2025 at 5:00 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 88/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: Trump silent on Musk exit speculation. No clarifying signals. Momentum toward fracture has slowed, but tension remains unresolved.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 3, 2025 at 11:47 AM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI) (REvised): 88/100
- Trend: Stable to increasing
- Urgent Notes: No direct response to Musk exit rumors. DOGE controversies persist. Perception of instability holding steady at elevated levels.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 2, 2025 at 5:00 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 86/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: Still no signs of reconciliation or rupture. Narrative drift continues in silence. No new events, but structural tension remains.

Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index Background
April 2, 2025 at 2:39 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 86/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: Political silence continues. No new fractures, but sustained stress from unresolved DOGE legal constraints and MAGA criticism of Musk.

Fracture Risk Index Background
April 1, 2025 at 1:14 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 86/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: Public messaging remains muted. Silence interpreted as tactical, not reconciliatory. Risk level remains elevated.

Background
March 31, 2025 at 1:35 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 86/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: Public friction remains quiet but unresolved. No new escalation, but narrative cohesion remains strained beneath the surface.

Background
March 30, 2025 at 8:46 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 86/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: Musk remains under MAGA scrutiny following GOP PA loss. DOGE legal constraints persist; no visible de-escalation.

[Background[(github.com/jgoldwein/FR...)
March 28, 2025 at 2:33 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 86/100
- Trend: Slightly Rising
- Urgent Notes: MAGA grassroots criticism of Musk after PA loss reveals emerging rift. DOGE legal pressure continues to mount.

Background
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 86/100 - Trend: Slightly Rising - Urgent Notes: MAGA grassroots criticism of Musk after PA loss reveals emerging rift. DOGE legal pressure continues to mount. [Background](https://github.com/jgoldwein/FRI/blob/main/README.md#abstract)
March 27, 2025 at 11:49 AM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 85/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: DOGE faces mounting legal obstacles; Musk’s financial entanglements and judiciary clashes sustain high fracture risk.

Background
March 26, 2025 at 4:38 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 85/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: DOGE faces legal, financial strain; Trump-Musk rift risk remains high.
March 24, 2025 at 12:45 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 85/100
- Trend: Stable
- Urgent Notes: DOGE faces legal, financial strain; Trump-Musk rift risk remains high.

Background: github.com/jgoldwein/FR...
- Trump-Musk Fracture Risk Index (FRI): 85/100 - Trend: Stable - Urgent Notes: DOGE faces legal, financial strain; Trump-Musk rift risk remains high. Background: https://github.com/jgoldwein/FRI/blob/main/README.md#abstract
March 23, 2025 at 12:34 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
Current FRI Score: 85/100​
Trend: Stable​
Urgent Notes: Recent legal challenges against DOGE's access to Social Security data and concerns over Musk's financial leverage continue to contribute to a high fracture risk.

See github.com/jgoldwein/FR... for details.
March 22, 2025 at 12:26 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
- Current FRI Score: 85/100​
- Trend: Increasing​
- Urgent Notes: Escalating legal challenges against DOGE, significant financial losses in Musk's ventures, and internal resistance within federal agencies are intensifying fracture risks.

See github.com/jgoldwein/FR... for details.
March 21, 2025 at 1:57 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
Current FRI Score: 80/100​
Trend: Increasing​
Urgent Notes: Recent legal challenges and internal conflicts have escalated tensions within the administration.​
Updated FRI Graph Here is the updated FRI graph, reflecting the latest score of 80/100 and including annotations for significant events:​ ​The graph illustrates the FRI trend over time, with markers indicating key events such as legal injunctions against DOGE's actions and fluctuations in Tesla's stock price.
March 20, 2025 at 12:14 PM
jgoldwein.bsky.social
Fracture Risk Index (FRI) of the Trump-Musk relationship considering Musk’s major support of Trump, Trump’s well-documented transactional approach to leadership, their personalities and many other factors. See github.com/jgoldwein/FRI for details.

Today's FRI Score: 72 (Critical Risk zone)
The establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under President Donald Trump, with Elon Musk appointed as its head, signals a new era of privatized influence within federal governance. This article applies the Fracture Risk Index (FRI) framework to evaluate the partnership’s potential durability, considering Musk’s major financial backing of Trump and Trump’s well-documented transactional approach to leadership. Our findings highlight critical vulnerabilities, including legal challenges, power asymmetries, and public backlash, suggesting an elevated risk of institutional and personal fracture. I will update this graph regularly as well as provide project background information, details of FRI calculation methodology, results and conclusions. For this analysis, a fracture is defined as: “A significant breakdown in the Trump-Musk alliance that impairs the functioning of DOGE or substantially diminishes the mutual political, economic, or reputational benefits underpinning their collaboration.” A fracture may result from: The forced or voluntary resignation of Musk from DOGE leadership. Legal disqualification of Musk’s appointment. A public fallout or sharp divergence in Trump-Musk priorities. External shocks, such as financial destabilization (e.g., TSLA or SpaceX disruptions) or institutional resistance. This definition forms the core threshold for interpreting critical risk within the FRI model. A dynamic white paper will become available at https://github.com/jgoldwein/FRI
March 19, 2025 at 1:08 PM