▶️The situation remains highly volatile, making any predictions futile, but speculation is running wild about scenarios such as the fall of #Bamako, a negotiated settlement between the jihadists and the military regime, and a military surge allowing the Malian authorities to break the blockade.

▶️It also highlights the growing strength of #JNIM, which has managed to open a new western front, impose economic blockades, and exert significant pressure on the Malian authorities.

▶️Sans réponse coordonnée et durable, cette dynamique risque de provoquer un désinvestissement massif, une contraction économique régionale et une instabilité accrue, avec des répercussions durables sur la stabilité du #Sahel et au-delà.

▶️Le JNIM exploite habilement les griefs locaux en qualifiant les investisseurs étrangers de « colonisateurs économiques », accusant leurs projets d’exploiter les ressources sans bénéfice pour les populations.

▶️Access to fuel is becoming the focal point of the conflict. To defeat JNIM, the junta needs large-scale ground operations and air support; yet both depend on a steady supply of fuel.

▶️#JNIM has said it wants to emulate the #Taliban, who entered Kabul after the military they had been fighting for two decades effectively vacated the capital.

▶️JNIM has likely opportunistically diverged from its original objectives due to its success in sustaining the blockade, leading to a #FuelCrisis that has degraded relations between the junta, citizens, and the fuel sector.

▶️JNIM is seeking to negotiate with the junta as an equal, moving it toward de jure legitimization.

Heightened vulnerability to cross-border attacks from militant Islamist groups risks destabilizing local communities and governments in these countries. #WestAfrica

▶️The ability of the Maçina Liberation Front – the most active member of the JNIM coalition – to project its influence throughout southern Mali also poses increased threats to Mali’s coastal neighbors.

▶️The JNIM coalition now exerts much more influence and control over territory in Mali than at any other previous time during the 13-year insurgency.

... and on @UNPOL police and @unmas.bsky.social mine action, I participated in its final strategic review (2022), downsizing and closure (2023), and today spent the day reflecting on lessons learned from 10 years of @UNPeacekeeping in Mali to inform the future of UN peace operations. 🇺🇳

Em #SaoTomeEPrincipe 🇸🇹, o Primeiro-Ministro, interlocutores dos setores da #justiça e #segurança, com @ONU_STP, reconheceram o impacto e a necessidade do suporte contínuo da @orolsi.bsky.social para o desenvolvimento institucional. Reiteramos nosso compromisso de continuar engajados.