Jens Muenster 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
@jensmuenster.bsky.social
Former Banker and Hedge Fund Partner; Dipl. Vwl; Gym Rat; Not Investment Advice
The Marko Papic framework of Trump's negotiation tactics. I use tactics as opposed to strategy deliberately as it works until it doesn't.
October 12, 2025 at 5:17 AM
The Marko Papic framework of Trump's negotiation tactics. I use tactics as opposed to strategy deliberately as it works until it doesn't.
1/n US versus EU financial systems
August 18, 2025 at 3:56 AM
1/n US versus EU financial systems
1/n European Space Technology
Details on Ariane 6 Launch Vehicle (no US company/components involved)
Details on Ariane 6 Launch Vehicle (no US company/components involved)
August 10, 2025 at 8:29 AM
1/n European Space Technology
Details on Ariane 6 Launch Vehicle (no US company/components involved)
Details on Ariane 6 Launch Vehicle (no US company/components involved)
1/n Detailed analysis of the various conventional weapons systems of NATO & Russia. Status is more or less 2025 and without the ramp up of the defense sector in EU (up to 3.5-5% of GDP) from 2%.
Also not included Ukrainian production which is becoming significant.
notes.citeam.org/russia_vs_na...
Also not included Ukrainian production which is becoming significant.
notes.citeam.org/russia_vs_na...
Who Produces More Weapons—Russia or NATO?
In early July, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made a striking claim: Russia now produces more ammunition in three months than all...
notes.citeam.org
July 30, 2025 at 9:29 AM
1/n Detailed analysis of the various conventional weapons systems of NATO & Russia. Status is more or less 2025 and without the ramp up of the defense sector in EU (up to 3.5-5% of GDP) from 2%.
Also not included Ukrainian production which is becoming significant.
notes.citeam.org/russia_vs_na...
Also not included Ukrainian production which is becoming significant.
notes.citeam.org/russia_vs_na...
1/n Securing the critical minerals supply chain for the Western developed world one smelter/refinery at a time...
www.reuters.com/markets/comm...
www.reuters.com/markets/comm...
Metals smelting is the West's next critical minerals crisis
Global supply chains are already reeling from the impact of China's rare earth export controls, but an even bigger critical minerals threat is looming.
www.reuters.com
July 11, 2025 at 10:38 AM
1/n Securing the critical minerals supply chain for the Western developed world one smelter/refinery at a time...
www.reuters.com/markets/comm...
www.reuters.com/markets/comm...
1/n Europe Day 🇪🇺
Europe Day is a day celebrating "peace and unity in Europe" celebrated on 5 May by the Council of Europe and on 9 May by the European Union. The first recognition of Europe Day was by the Council of Europe, introduced in 1964.
Europe Day is a day celebrating "peace and unity in Europe" celebrated on 5 May by the Council of Europe and on 9 May by the European Union. The first recognition of Europe Day was by the Council of Europe, introduced in 1964.
May 10, 2025 at 8:01 AM
1/n Europe Day 🇪🇺
Europe Day is a day celebrating "peace and unity in Europe" celebrated on 5 May by the Council of Europe and on 9 May by the European Union. The first recognition of Europe Day was by the Council of Europe, introduced in 1964.
Europe Day is a day celebrating "peace and unity in Europe" celebrated on 5 May by the Council of Europe and on 9 May by the European Union. The first recognition of Europe Day was by the Council of Europe, introduced in 1964.
1/n US 30 Year Bond Yield as of time of posting is 4.63%. Is this time different compared to past crisis episodes?
April 8, 2025 at 7:07 AM
1/n US 30 Year Bond Yield as of time of posting is 4.63%. Is this time different compared to past crisis episodes?
1/n Great piece from Ben Hunt of epsilontheory.com on April 7th 2025.
The theory of the 3 melting icebergs of investment success over the last 20 years:
a.)US home country bias
b.)US tech bias
c.) US dollar bias.
www.epsilontheory.com/crashing-the...
The theory of the 3 melting icebergs of investment success over the last 20 years:
a.)US home country bias
b.)US tech bias
c.) US dollar bias.
www.epsilontheory.com/crashing-the...
Crashing the Car of Pax Americana
I am desperately opposed to crashing the Pax Americana car, Annie Hall style, because the America First system that this Administration wants as a replacement
www.epsilontheory.com
April 8, 2025 at 4:40 AM
1/n Great piece from Ben Hunt of epsilontheory.com on April 7th 2025.
The theory of the 3 melting icebergs of investment success over the last 20 years:
a.)US home country bias
b.)US tech bias
c.) US dollar bias.
www.epsilontheory.com/crashing-the...
The theory of the 3 melting icebergs of investment success over the last 20 years:
a.)US home country bias
b.)US tech bias
c.) US dollar bias.
www.epsilontheory.com/crashing-the...
1/n The power/significance of the EU common market. Who is afraid of tariffs?
March 28, 2025 at 6:33 AM
1/n The power/significance of the EU common market. Who is afraid of tariffs?
1/n Wall Street is traditionally republican leaning. So it has been no surprise to me that a lot of the actions of the US Administration have been given more than the benefit of doubt on tariffs, Doge, NATO, Ukraine etc.
Is this changing? Exhibit 1: David Rosenberg
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqgQ...
Is this changing? Exhibit 1: David Rosenberg
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqgQ...
The biggest misstep Trump made with tariffs: Rosenberg
YouTube video by BNN Bloomberg
www.youtube.com
March 7, 2025 at 8:17 AM
1/n Wall Street is traditionally republican leaning. So it has been no surprise to me that a lot of the actions of the US Administration have been given more than the benefit of doubt on tariffs, Doge, NATO, Ukraine etc.
Is this changing? Exhibit 1: David Rosenberg
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqgQ...
Is this changing? Exhibit 1: David Rosenberg
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqgQ...
1/n German 'Zeitenwende' for real?
Very informative interview with M Schularik of www.ifw-kiel.de . He is one of 4 Economist rumored to have provided the intellectual framework for the fiscal U-Turn of incoming German Chancellor Merz.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/v...
Very informative interview with M Schularik of www.ifw-kiel.de . He is one of 4 Economist rumored to have provided the intellectual framework for the fiscal U-Turn of incoming German Chancellor Merz.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/v...
(S+) Ökonom Schularick über Aufrüstung: »Wir brauchen wohl eher eine Million Drohnen als 2000 neue Panzer«
Der Ökonom Moritz Schularick hat jene Milliardenkredite vorgeschlagen, die Schwarz-Rot jetzt umsetzen will. Hier sagt er, wofür er das Geld ausgeben – und warum er bereits georderte US-Kampfjets wiede...
www.spiegel.de
March 6, 2025 at 9:15 AM
1/n German 'Zeitenwende' for real?
Very informative interview with M Schularik of www.ifw-kiel.de . He is one of 4 Economist rumored to have provided the intellectual framework for the fiscal U-Turn of incoming German Chancellor Merz.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/v...
Very informative interview with M Schularik of www.ifw-kiel.de . He is one of 4 Economist rumored to have provided the intellectual framework for the fiscal U-Turn of incoming German Chancellor Merz.
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/v...
March 5, 2025 at 8:20 AM
1/n Frontload the pain and be generous into the midterms? Will it work? I have my doubts. It assumes an ability of control of the economy which is just unrealistic.
March 4, 2025 at 3:58 AM
1/n Frontload the pain and be generous into the midterms? Will it work? I have my doubts. It assumes an ability of control of the economy which is just unrealistic.
1/n European Defense Industry
To quote Dario Perkins of TS Lombard: " In other news, the EU is going to shovel 1.5% of GDP per annum in perpetuity into a sector currently worth 0.5% of the economy....
To quote Dario Perkins of TS Lombard: " In other news, the EU is going to shovel 1.5% of GDP per annum in perpetuity into a sector currently worth 0.5% of the economy....
March 3, 2025 at 10:31 AM
1/n European Defense Industry
To quote Dario Perkins of TS Lombard: " In other news, the EU is going to shovel 1.5% of GDP per annum in perpetuity into a sector currently worth 0.5% of the economy....
To quote Dario Perkins of TS Lombard: " In other news, the EU is going to shovel 1.5% of GDP per annum in perpetuity into a sector currently worth 0.5% of the economy....
1/n Virtual Power Plants: From the December MIT Technology Review.
I have been arguing for a while that the increasing digitalization of the power grid (AI, Smart Meters. Decentralized batteries etc.) will put a dent in overoptimistic electricity power demand forecast.
I have been arguing for a while that the increasing digitalization of the power grid (AI, Smart Meters. Decentralized batteries etc.) will put a dent in overoptimistic electricity power demand forecast.
March 3, 2025 at 8:28 AM
1/n Virtual Power Plants: From the December MIT Technology Review.
I have been arguing for a while that the increasing digitalization of the power grid (AI, Smart Meters. Decentralized batteries etc.) will put a dent in overoptimistic electricity power demand forecast.
I have been arguing for a while that the increasing digitalization of the power grid (AI, Smart Meters. Decentralized batteries etc.) will put a dent in overoptimistic electricity power demand forecast.
I am getting the same feeling. Early days but...
March 1, 2025 at 9:31 PM
I am getting the same feeling. Early days but...
We will see more of this especially if the antics coming from the US ramp up further. 51st state, Greenland etc.
February 28, 2025 at 4:45 AM
We will see more of this especially if the antics coming from the US ramp up further. 51st state, Greenland etc.
1/n The Mar-a-Lago Accord : Can it work?
The discussion goes back to a paper by Stephen Miran of Hudson Bay Capital in November 2024. Miran has recently been nominated by Trump to be the Chairman to the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA).
www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG...
The discussion goes back to a paper by Stephen Miran of Hudson Bay Capital in November 2024. Miran has recently been nominated by Trump to be the Chairman to the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA).
www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG...
www.hudsonbaycapital.com
February 27, 2025 at 9:51 AM
1/n The Mar-a-Lago Accord : Can it work?
The discussion goes back to a paper by Stephen Miran of Hudson Bay Capital in November 2024. Miran has recently been nominated by Trump to be the Chairman to the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA).
www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG...
The discussion goes back to a paper by Stephen Miran of Hudson Bay Capital in November 2024. Miran has recently been nominated by Trump to be the Chairman to the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA).
www.hudsonbaycapital.com/documents/FG...
A must read article by Ben Hunt / epsilontheory.com
$ Milkshake Theory or 'US $ as the cleanest dirty shirt' ?
If Ben is correct the 'cleanest dirty shirt' might be up for grabs depending on the path forward of other actors (Gold/BTC/EU/China etc.).
www.epsilontheory.com/it-was-never...
$ Milkshake Theory or 'US $ as the cleanest dirty shirt' ?
If Ben is correct the 'cleanest dirty shirt' might be up for grabs depending on the path forward of other actors (Gold/BTC/EU/China etc.).
www.epsilontheory.com/it-was-never...
It Was Never Going To Be Me
The Road to Serfdom is not an endless road, but its path and duration, what I call the Great Ravine, is not up to us
www.epsilontheory.com
February 19, 2025 at 9:36 AM
A must read article by Ben Hunt / epsilontheory.com
$ Milkshake Theory or 'US $ as the cleanest dirty shirt' ?
If Ben is correct the 'cleanest dirty shirt' might be up for grabs depending on the path forward of other actors (Gold/BTC/EU/China etc.).
www.epsilontheory.com/it-was-never...
$ Milkshake Theory or 'US $ as the cleanest dirty shirt' ?
If Ben is correct the 'cleanest dirty shirt' might be up for grabs depending on the path forward of other actors (Gold/BTC/EU/China etc.).
www.epsilontheory.com/it-was-never...
1/n Plenty of room to reform the 'Schuldenbremse' in Germany after the Feb 23rd election. A 2/3 majority in the lower house will be needed and their is a tail risk for a blockade.
February 19, 2025 at 8:03 AM
1/n Plenty of room to reform the 'Schuldenbremse' in Germany after the Feb 23rd election. A 2/3 majority in the lower house will be needed and their is a tail risk for a blockade.
1/4 An informed editorial by Bret Stephens of the NY Times. As a German I say informed because (in my opinion) he gets the nuances correct why Vance's speech was so ill received in Germany.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
Opinion | Vance’s Munich Disgrace (Gift Article)
The vice president’s speech was a monument of arrogance based on a foundation of hypocrisy.
www.nytimes.com
February 19, 2025 at 4:34 AM
1/4 An informed editorial by Bret Stephens of the NY Times. As a German I say informed because (in my opinion) he gets the nuances correct why Vance's speech was so ill received in Germany.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
Undeveloped copper projects by ASX (Australia) listed companies. Could become useful depending on the direction/scope of trade frictions. Chart via Mineral Metrics.
February 19, 2025 at 4:25 AM
Undeveloped copper projects by ASX (Australia) listed companies. Could become useful depending on the direction/scope of trade frictions. Chart via Mineral Metrics.
Excellent analysis by Michael Pettis on the relationship between trade & manufacturing share of developed economies. Provides a roadmap what the US (trade balance deficit with low manufacturing) or Germany, Japan, Korea (opposite) need to do to adjust.
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tra...
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tra...
Trade and the Manufacturing Share
Tariffs, manufacturing, and US capital controls
www.phenomenalworld.org
February 13, 2025 at 3:26 AM
Excellent analysis by Michael Pettis on the relationship between trade & manufacturing share of developed economies. Provides a roadmap what the US (trade balance deficit with low manufacturing) or Germany, Japan, Korea (opposite) need to do to adjust.
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tra...
www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/tra...
Good summary by Bloomberg via Chase Taylor of Pinecone Passport.
Problem is, that the US position is a constant moving target.
Problem is, that the US position is a constant moving target.
February 13, 2025 at 1:14 AM
Good summary by Bloomberg via Chase Taylor of Pinecone Passport.
Problem is, that the US position is a constant moving target.
Problem is, that the US position is a constant moving target.