@jedmark888.bsky.social
Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Geoeconomics Center. Former IMF. Former WSJ/AWSJ.
Empty Calories: Strong exports and industrial output helped lift China's second-quarter growth, but the rest of the picture remains bleaker: sluggish consumption, deflationary pressures and a continued decline in housing prices. There's no there there.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China’s GDP Beat Masks Fragile Demand, Sparking Outlook Concerns
China’s economic growth exceeded expectations in the second quarter but a more pronounced slowdown is becoming likely in the months ahead, made worse by risks to global trade and sluggish consumer dem...
www.bloomberg.com
July 15, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Empty Calories: Strong exports and industrial output helped lift China's second-quarter growth, but the rest of the picture remains bleaker: sluggish consumption, deflationary pressures and a continued decline in housing prices. There's no there there.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Nvidia said new US restrictions on sales of an AI chip to China could cost the company up to $5.5 billion. The chip is designed to adapt to a US clampdown on a more complex chip that itself had been designed to meet US regulations affecting an earlier generation.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Nvidia Warns Trump Curbs on China AI Chips to Cost $5.5 Billion
President Donald Trump’s administration has barred Nvidia Corp. from selling its H20 chip in China, an escalation of Washington’s tech battle with Beijing that will cost the company billions of dollar...
www.bloomberg.com
April 16, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Nvidia said new US restrictions on sales of an AI chip to China could cost the company up to $5.5 billion. The chip is designed to adapt to a US clampdown on a more complex chip that itself had been designed to meet US regulations affecting an earlier generation.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I spoke with Politico about Trump administration threats to delist Chinese companies on Wall Street. The U.S. is “looking at all the different levers they might have to put pressure on China — or at least in their eyes, put pressure on China.”
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
Morning Money
Washington is exploring a new weapon in President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war: kicking Chinese companies off American stock exchanges.
www.politico.com
April 15, 2025 at 1:27 PM
I spoke with Politico about Trump administration threats to delist Chinese companies on Wall Street. The U.S. is “looking at all the different levers they might have to put pressure on China — or at least in their eyes, put pressure on China.”
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
www.politico.com/newsletters/...
"There are no appeals to ideological alignment or shared values that will sway Trump to support Taiwan. The most powerful argument is that his ambitions for reindustrializing America are not achievable without critical inputs" from Taiwan's leading companies.
www.taipeitimes.com/News/editori...
www.taipeitimes.com/News/editori...
Ryan Hass On Taiwan: External uncertainty should concentrate minds on domestic compromises - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com
April 14, 2025 at 3:07 PM
"There are no appeals to ideological alignment or shared values that will sway Trump to support Taiwan. The most powerful argument is that his ambitions for reindustrializing America are not achievable without critical inputs" from Taiwan's leading companies.
www.taipeitimes.com/News/editori...
www.taipeitimes.com/News/editori...
"Peter Navarro? I barely know him. Lutnick? Maybe I met him once."
www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
Trade shake-up: Bessent leads on trade as Lutnick plays ‘bad cop’ — and Navarro is sidelined
The Treasury secretary has emerged as a soothing presence and a voice of reason amid this week’s tariff fracas.
www.politico.com
April 12, 2025 at 6:08 PM
"Peter Navarro? I barely know him. Lutnick? Maybe I met him once."
www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
www.politico.com/news/2025/04...
An excellent take
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
Why China Won’t Give In to Trump
Xi Jinping, like his American counterpart, needs to be the top dog.
www.theatlantic.com
April 12, 2025 at 12:16 PM
An excellent take
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
“The violation raises concerns about the data security practices of DOGE’s work at the Treasury Department and other agencies as it digs into sensitive government databases.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
DOGE Staffer Broke Treasury Rules in Transmitting Personal Data
A staffer for the Department of Government Efficiency violated Treasury Department policies when he sent a spreadsheet containing personal information to two other people in the Trump administration, ...
www.bloomberg.com
March 15, 2025 at 12:06 PM
“The violation raises concerns about the data security practices of DOGE’s work at the Treasury Department and other agencies as it digs into sensitive government databases.”
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Beijing has declared consumption China's No. 1 economic priority. But a closer look at the plans shows that's just window-dressing. It's is still full speed ahead on high tech investment while consumers take the backseat. My latest for the Atlantic Council.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
China’s economic plans prioritize consumption—but only on paper
At last week's meeting of the National People's Congress, China declared consumption as the number one priority. But will the spending plans actually support consumers and businesses?
www.atlanticcouncil.org
March 12, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Beijing has declared consumption China's No. 1 economic priority. But a closer look at the plans shows that's just window-dressing. It's is still full speed ahead on high tech investment while consumers take the backseat. My latest for the Atlantic Council.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
“Chinese export volume is growing three times as fast as global trade. This means China’s success is directly coming at the expense of manufacturers in other countries, which increasingly cannot compete and face pressure to abandon sectors that China targets.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
Opinion | Xi Is Making the World Pay for China’s Economic Blunders
Trump’s tariffs are bad enough, but Xi is fundamentally distorting world trade to dig China out of the hole its economic decisions have created.
www.nytimes.com
February 18, 2025 at 7:54 PM
“Chinese export volume is growing three times as fast as global trade. This means China’s success is directly coming at the expense of manufacturers in other countries, which increasingly cannot compete and face pressure to abandon sectors that China targets.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/18/o...
After failing to deliver on promises of economic stimulus, Beijing is trying to impose stability on its volatile stock market by mandating institutional investment. Call it regulation with Leninist characteristics. My latest for the Atlantic Council.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
Beijing fails to reassure skeptical investors and responds with more regulation
Beijing has tried to stabilize its struggling, volatile stock market by building up institutional investors, but it will take more than rules and action plans to change China’s market psychology.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
February 13, 2025 at 6:38 PM
After failing to deliver on promises of economic stimulus, Beijing is trying to impose stability on its volatile stock market by mandating institutional investment. Call it regulation with Leninist characteristics. My latest for the Atlantic Council.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog...
Reposted
DeepSeek's success shows how China's ingenious entrepreneurs and engineers will overcome the obstacles Washington throws in front of them - by whatever means necessary. My latest in @TheAtlantic.com www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
DeepSeek and the Truth About Chinese Tech
Chinese companies are good at doing more with less—and at using any means necessary.
www.theatlantic.com
February 5, 2025 at 4:34 AM
DeepSeek's success shows how China's ingenious entrepreneurs and engineers will overcome the obstacles Washington throws in front of them - by whatever means necessary. My latest in @TheAtlantic.com www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
China's Xi Jinping has missed an opportunity to build a robust consumer class, writes Bloomberg's Shuli Ren. That gives him fewer weapons vis a vis the US in a trade standoff, where consumption is king.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Xi Has Squandered His Most Powerful Trade War Weapon
The Chinese president’s failure to build a robust consumer class gives him fewer choices in a rematch with Trump.
www.bloomberg.com
February 5, 2025 at 9:04 PM
China's Xi Jinping has missed an opportunity to build a robust consumer class, writes Bloomberg's Shuli Ren. That gives him fewer weapons vis a vis the US in a trade standoff, where consumption is king.
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Where's the Bottom? Unsurprisingly, given Beijing's disappointing economic stimulus effort, China’s residential real estate market resumed its decline in January. New home sales fell over 3% yoy.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China Home Sales Resume Decline as Stimulus Effect Wears Off
China’s residential sales resumed falling in January, suggesting the property sector still has some way to go before it can show a sustained recovery.
www.bloomberg.com
February 4, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Where's the Bottom? Unsurprisingly, given Beijing's disappointing economic stimulus effort, China’s residential real estate market resumed its decline in January. New home sales fell over 3% yoy.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
New Year's Doldrums: China’s manufacturing output again declined in January, further underlining the need for economic stimulus. The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to the lowest in 4 months. Trump tariffs only make the situation more uncertain.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China Factory Activity Growth Slows Again as Trump Tariffs Loom
China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly declined for a second straight month in January, underlining the need for Beijing to step up economic stimulus with Donald Trump slapping tariffs on the cou...
www.bloomberg.com
February 3, 2025 at 4:01 PM
New Year's Doldrums: China’s manufacturing output again declined in January, further underlining the need for economic stimulus. The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to the lowest in 4 months. Trump tariffs only make the situation more uncertain.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Reposted
On Lutnick saying tariffs would have prevented DeepSeek breakthrough: If you have a hammer everything looks like a nail, but if you don’t have any nails then all your hammer does is break stuff. Lot of policy areas, including AI, where there are no nails for the tariff hammer.
January 31, 2025 at 4:51 PM
On Lutnick saying tariffs would have prevented DeepSeek breakthrough: If you have a hammer everything looks like a nail, but if you don’t have any nails then all your hammer does is break stuff. Lot of policy areas, including AI, where there are no nails for the tariff hammer.
I’m no particular fan of Tom Friedman, but, yes: “If Trump’s all-in-on-fossil-fuels, “drill, baby, drill” rallying cry really becomes our strategy, it will not make America great again. But it will definitely help make China great again.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/o...
Opinion | Trump Is Going Woke
The president’s energy policies may not make America great again, but they will definitely help make China great again.
www.nytimes.com
January 29, 2025 at 12:22 AM
I’m no particular fan of Tom Friedman, but, yes: “If Trump’s all-in-on-fossil-fuels, “drill, baby, drill” rallying cry really becomes our strategy, it will not make America great again. But it will definitely help make China great again.”
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/o...
A useful assessment of the likely Trump and Xi positions on the looming trade standoff based on how they handled the issue during Trump #1. It would also be interesting to see Bob's take on how the US policies inherited from Biden could affect the two sides' strategies.
Want to know how the next trade war with China will play out? Look at how Trump and Xi fought the last one. "Some of what lies ahead will play out differently, but some of the moves will come straight out of Trump and Xi’s earlier playbook." politi.co/4ggOQRu via @politico
‘That Would Give Trump Pause’: How to Game Out the Next Trade War
Trump vs. Xi: Who will win?
politi.co
January 27, 2025 at 9:58 PM
A useful assessment of the likely Trump and Xi positions on the looming trade standoff based on how they handled the issue during Trump #1. It would also be interesting to see Bob's take on how the US policies inherited from Biden could affect the two sides' strategies.
IMF-Speak on China’s Outlook: “In China, should fiscal and monetary measures prove insufficient to address domestic weakness, the economy is at risk of a debt-deflation stagnation trap, where falling prices raise the real value of debt, undermining activity further.”
www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
As One Cycle Ends, Another Begins Amid Growing Divergence
Growth divergences persist and could widen, while policy shifts may reignite inflation pressures in some countries
www.imf.org
January 17, 2025 at 2:27 PM
IMF-Speak on China’s Outlook: “In China, should fiscal and monetary measures prove insufficient to address domestic weakness, the economy is at risk of a debt-deflation stagnation trap, where falling prices raise the real value of debt, undermining activity further.”
www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
Reposted
#UkraineAlert – If Western leaders choose to sacrifice Ukraine in a misguided bid to placate Putin, the shift from a rules-based international order to the law of the geopolitical jungle will be complete, writes Victor Liakh.
Abandoning Ukraine would plunge the entire world into an era of instability
If Western leaders choose to sacrifice Ukraine in a misguided bid to placate Putin, the shift from a rules-based international order to the law of the geopolitical jungle will be complete, writes Vict...
www.atlanticcouncil.org
January 11, 2025 at 10:31 PM
#UkraineAlert – If Western leaders choose to sacrifice Ukraine in a misguided bid to placate Putin, the shift from a rules-based international order to the law of the geopolitical jungle will be complete, writes Victor Liakh.
China’s consumer inflation weakened further in a setback for government efforts to stamp out deflation and revive demand. Factory deflation extended for a 27th straight month.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China Consumer Prices Weaken Further, Adding to Deflation Worries
China’s consumer inflation weakened further toward zero, decelerating for a fourth straight month in a setback for government efforts to stamp out deflation and revive demand with economic stimulus.
www.bloomberg.com
January 9, 2025 at 10:03 AM
China’s consumer inflation weakened further in a setback for government efforts to stamp out deflation and revive demand. Factory deflation extended for a 27th straight month.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China's markets are deeply worried about falling prices--even as Beijing ordains that private sector economists should not use the word "deflation." There is now a 300 basis point yield gap with US 10-year bonds. No wonder capital outflows are at record levels.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Markets Sound Alarm Over Deflationary Spiral in China
Investors are increasingly concerned that China risks sliding into an economic malaise that could last decades.
www.bloomberg.com
January 8, 2025 at 1:15 PM
China's markets are deeply worried about falling prices--even as Beijing ordains that private sector economists should not use the word "deflation." There is now a 300 basis point yield gap with US 10-year bonds. No wonder capital outflows are at record levels.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
An unending rally in China government bonds and a selloff of US notes has resulted in an unprecedented 300 basis point gap between the two countries’ sovereign yields. That increases the likelihood of increasing capital flows out of China.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
China’s Widest-Ever Yield Discount to US Pressures Sluggish Yuan
China’s yield discount to the US has expanded to a fresh record, aggravating the challenge for a central bank that’s already fighting gravity to support the yuan.
www.bloomberg.com
January 7, 2025 at 4:03 PM
An unending rally in China government bonds and a selloff of US notes has resulted in an unprecedented 300 basis point gap between the two countries’ sovereign yields. That increases the likelihood of increasing capital flows out of China.
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The "drag on China’s real economy shows up nowhere in its macroeconomic data, which the IMF accepts as reliable. Closing the ouroboric circle, Chinese officials regularly cite the IMF to show that their economy is on track." Kudos to Rhodium for using ouroboric in a sentence.
rhg.com/research/aft...
rhg.com/research/aft...
After the Fall: China's Economy in 2025
China’s 2024 claim that GDP growth was on track to meet high targets was impossible to reconcile with increasingly frantic efforts to prop up a flagging economy all year long. Collapsing property…
rhg.com
January 4, 2025 at 4:59 PM
The "drag on China’s real economy shows up nowhere in its macroeconomic data, which the IMF accepts as reliable. Closing the ouroboric circle, Chinese officials regularly cite the IMF to show that their economy is on track." Kudos to Rhodium for using ouroboric in a sentence.
rhg.com/research/aft...
rhg.com/research/aft...