Jonathan S Doucette
@jdoucette.bsky.social
Associate Professor, Department of Politics, Aalborg University. My research examines religion, historical regimes, state formation, and democratization.
Personal website: https://t.co/M1J5XAy13P
Personal website: https://t.co/M1J5XAy13P
We use Gregory's letters to capture his influence network. Next, we demonstrate that letter-receiving towns introduced self-government earlier and to a larger extent than towns outside of Gregory's network
September 11, 2025 at 1:46 PM
We use Gregory's letters to capture his influence network. Next, we demonstrate that letter-receiving towns introduced self-government earlier and to a larger extent than towns outside of Gregory's network
Sometimes individual leaders can leave an imprint that persists long after their tenure. In a new paper with Jørgen Møller, we show how Pope Gregory VII used his network to spread urban political autonomy across Europe www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
September 11, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Sometimes individual leaders can leave an imprint that persists long after their tenure. In a new paper with Jørgen Møller, we show how Pope Gregory VII used his network to spread urban political autonomy across Europe www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
Based on similar "laws", no democratic breakdown can happen after 60 years of competitive elections or at the level of economic development attained by the US..
April 7, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Based on similar "laws", no democratic breakdown can happen after 60 years of competitive elections or at the level of economic development attained by the US..
Still baffled that the majority of voters in one of the world's oldest and richest democracies voted for an autocrat and likely economic decline
March 20, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Still baffled that the majority of voters in one of the world's oldest and richest democracies voted for an autocrat and likely economic decline
Thus, a reversal is possible even if worst comes to worst and competitive elections are terminated. However, it might be worth looking closely at countries that have successfully reversed autocratization or a breakdown (e.g. Poland, Brazil). More on this at a later time.
March 11, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Thus, a reversal is possible even if worst comes to worst and competitive elections are terminated. However, it might be worth looking closely at countries that have successfully reversed autocratization or a breakdown (e.g. Poland, Brazil). More on this at a later time.
Third, the US is the most consolidated democracy to face autocratization and a potential breakdown. Similarly, additional consolidation does not seem to make it more likely that democracy is restored.
March 11, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Third, the US is the most consolidated democracy to face autocratization and a potential breakdown. Similarly, additional consolidation does not seem to make it more likely that democracy is restored.
Second, the US is by far the oldest democracy to face autocratization and a potential breakdown. Once again, prior experience with democracy does not seem to predict whether a country succeeds in reestablishing democracy.
March 11, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Second, the US is by far the oldest democracy to face autocratization and a potential breakdown. Once again, prior experience with democracy does not seem to predict whether a country succeeds in reestablishing democracy.
First, the US is the richest established democracy to ever face autocratization and a potential breakdown. Worryingly, however, there seems to be no strong correlation between wealth before breakd./aut. and later restoration of democracy
March 11, 2025 at 11:53 AM
First, the US is the richest established democracy to ever face autocratization and a potential breakdown. Worryingly, however, there seems to be no strong correlation between wealth before breakd./aut. and later restoration of democracy
How exceptional is the current attempt to curb democracy in the US? And can we learn something from cases of autocratization in established democracies? A thread.
The US is unlike other cases. Yet, democracy might still be saved. 65% of established democracies that break down are reestablished.
The US is unlike other cases. Yet, democracy might still be saved. 65% of established democracies that break down are reestablished.
March 11, 2025 at 11:53 AM
How exceptional is the current attempt to curb democracy in the US? And can we learn something from cases of autocratization in established democracies? A thread.
The US is unlike other cases. Yet, democracy might still be saved. 65% of established democracies that break down are reestablished.
The US is unlike other cases. Yet, democracy might still be saved. 65% of established democracies that break down are reestablished.
Adjacent towns that also had historical inclusive institutions exhibit similar lower levels of support for autocratic parties.
January 29, 2025 at 1:22 PM
Adjacent towns that also had historical inclusive institutions exhibit similar lower levels of support for autocratic parties.
I compare the voting patterns of German towns inside of the County of Hauenstein, which had unusually extensive self-government circa 1371-1745, with adjacent towns outside of it. Towns in the County consistently exhibit less support for autocratic parties. The pattern is also present across Europe.
January 29, 2025 at 1:22 PM
I compare the voting patterns of German towns inside of the County of Hauenstein, which had unusually extensive self-government circa 1371-1745, with adjacent towns outside of it. Towns in the County consistently exhibit less support for autocratic parties. The pattern is also present across Europe.
Interactions are even more of a problem. Even with a large direct effect (16%) and a massive difference in effect size between groups (200%), studies still lack power
December 16, 2024 at 11:35 AM
Interactions are even more of a problem. Even with a large direct effect (16%) and a massive difference in effect size between groups (200%), studies still lack power
If we don't have data for all the world's countries we quickly get into deep waters (democracy must cause countries to around 24% richer for studies to be powered with 75 countries in the sample).
December 16, 2024 at 11:35 AM
If we don't have data for all the world's countries we quickly get into deep waters (democracy must cause countries to around 24% richer for studies to be powered with 75 countries in the sample).
I show that a fundamental lack of statistical power might be at the root of this problem. I simulate a TWFE setup using variables, democracy and GDP/cap, with good coverage (around 180 countries). I find that democracy must cause countries to be about 16% richer or more for studies to be powered
December 16, 2024 at 11:35 AM
I show that a fundamental lack of statistical power might be at the root of this problem. I simulate a TWFE setup using variables, democracy and GDP/cap, with good coverage (around 180 countries). I find that democracy must cause countries to be about 16% richer or more for studies to be powered
Similarly, Western settlers in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia introduced institutions of self-government to attract migrants to their settlements (see second book project: sites.google.com/view/doucett...)
November 20, 2024 at 2:36 PM
Similarly, Western settlers in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia introduced institutions of self-government to attract migrants to their settlements (see second book project: sites.google.com/view/doucett...)
The Dominican order thus spread urban self-government beyond the economic core of Western Europe, that is, to areas that had not been influenced by the Cluniac reform movement. (See t.co/J43zZHFnDI)
November 20, 2024 at 2:36 PM
The Dominican order thus spread urban self-government beyond the economic core of Western Europe, that is, to areas that had not been influenced by the Cluniac reform movement. (See t.co/J43zZHFnDI)
The great interregnum in the Holy Roman Empire (post-1250) gave many cities the opportunity to escape imperial controls and establish political autonomy www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
November 20, 2024 at 2:36 PM
The great interregnum in the Holy Roman Empire (post-1250) gave many cities the opportunity to escape imperial controls and establish political autonomy www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...
The second wave of transitions to self-government occurred between 1200 and 1500. They were concentrated in Germany, the Benelux countries, the UK, and Poland. 9/N
November 20, 2024 at 2:36 PM
The second wave of transitions to self-government occurred between 1200 and 1500. They were concentrated in Germany, the Benelux countries, the UK, and Poland. 9/N
The reform movement was spearheaded by Pope Gregory VII, and it was cities in his network (proxied by letters) that initially cast out unreformed bishops and established self-government. 7/N
November 20, 2024 at 2:36 PM
The reform movement was spearheaded by Pope Gregory VII, and it was cities in his network (proxied by letters) that initially cast out unreformed bishops and established self-government. 7/N
The reform movement allied with townspeople to eject unreformed bishop and introduce self-government modeled on the monastic order. This implied that the first transitions occurred in cities that i) were close to Cluniac monasteries, and ii) had a bishop 5/N
November 20, 2024 at 2:36 PM
The reform movement allied with townspeople to eject unreformed bishop and introduce self-government modeled on the monastic order. This implied that the first transitions occurred in cities that i) were close to Cluniac monasteries, and ii) had a bishop 5/N
This was before the intensification of warfare and urban growth. In addition, warfare was similarly pervasive, and cities were of equal size (if not larger) in other regions of Eurasia without urban political autonomy being ubiquitous. 3/N
November 20, 2024 at 2:36 PM
This was before the intensification of warfare and urban growth. In addition, warfare was similarly pervasive, and cities were of equal size (if not larger) in other regions of Eurasia without urban political autonomy being ubiquitous. 3/N
The initial wave of transitions to self-government occurred in the latter part of the eleventh century and the twelfth century. They were concentrated in Northern Italy, France, and Northern Spain. 2/N
November 20, 2024 at 2:36 PM
The initial wave of transitions to self-government occurred in the latter part of the eleventh century and the twelfth century. They were concentrated in Northern Italy, France, and Northern Spain. 2/N
We argue that the creation of a new doctrine of penitential warfare was crucial for recruitment to the first crusade. These ideas resonated most strongly in areas that were part of the Church reform movement, which developed the idea of the knight fighting for the cause of the Church
November 15, 2024 at 11:50 AM
We argue that the creation of a new doctrine of penitential warfare was crucial for recruitment to the first crusade. These ideas resonated most strongly in areas that were part of the Church reform movement, which developed the idea of the knight fighting for the cause of the Church
The divergence later manifested itself in heightened levels of warfare
November 14, 2024 at 9:42 AM
The divergence later manifested itself in heightened levels of warfare
Using new and more detailed data on towns within the empire, I find that the timing of the divergence is concurrent with the demise of the Hohenstaufen dynasty
November 14, 2024 at 9:42 AM
Using new and more detailed data on towns within the empire, I find that the timing of the divergence is concurrent with the demise of the Hohenstaufen dynasty