📊 How tough has your team’s start to the season been? I used xStandings’ expected points model to measure the difficulty of each team’s opening 7 matches in the Premier League. The darker the red, the harder the fixture. 🧵

5) Roma’s goal was clear: Champions League qualification.
But for most of the season, it looked out of reach.
A late winning streak in the season (Verona, Inter, Fiorentina) gave some hope to the fans
🔮 Our model predicted a 43% UCL chance if they beat Atalanta…
❌ They lost 2-1. Dream over.

4) Then came Claudio Ranieri.
Coming out of retirement, he led a miraculous second round of the season.
🟢 From 48.2 expected pts at his arrival…
🟢 To 69 expected pts by season end
🟢 Net overperformance: +20.8 pts (!)
Roma surged up the table under Ranieri.

3) Ivan Juric was appointed next.
A quick spark: wins vs Udinese (3-0) and Venezia (2-1) gave fans hope.
But it didn’t last. The team collapsed again.
❌ Sacked on November 10.
📉 Model shows a net underperformance of –3.3 pts during his tenure.

2) De Rossi signed a 3-year deal in the summer of 2024.
But after just 4 matches (1 loss, 3 draws), he was sacked.
📉 Pre-season model: 57.1 pts expected
📉 At his dismissal: 52.2 pts expected
🔻 Underperformance: –4.9 pts
Was it the right decision?

1) AS Roma’s season was pure chaos:
3 managers in <3 months

A stunning second half of the season

In fact, only Barcelona had a better 2025 across Europe’s top 5 leagues (I heard this fact but not 100% sure)
Here's what xStandings saw 👇
📈 Expected Points Evolution
🧠 Manager performance