With the EU push for manufacturing sectors to decarbonize, Brasil northeast has, beyond cheap labour cost, cheap clean energy which gives a competitive advantage for attracting manufacturing firms of a broad range of sectors.

Just like EU eastern european were able to do in the last 15 years.

The reference to eastern Europe was about trade specialization.

Before joining the EU the same argument, that they would be exporting agricultural goods and importing manufactured goods, was prevalent. But, in an age of 'global' value chains, it actually boosted manufacturing in eastern europe.

But honestly think your concerns of dissimation are exagerated.

Whether overall jobs impact will be positive or negative depends a lot on what policies Brasil puts in place to explore opportunities and mitigate losses.

Regional impacts in Brasil will be very uneven. Great for the Mid-West. Huge opportunity for the Northeast to devolop green manufacturing hubs. Bad for Brazil's, already declining, 'rust' belt manufacturing sector of south(east). Some specifc agricultural goods like cheese may suffer badly for sure.

I think impacts are not going to be as strong as you worry. With free-trade agreement or not, distance is still one of the stronest predictors of trade flows (see gravity models lit), so wouldn't think negative/positive impacts will be as big as in Mexico-NAFTA.

I think this is a very static take of the agreement. For instance, Brazil northeast is a huge hub for clean energy, hydogen, with cheap labour costs for european standards and similar tax burden. It can have an export-led industroalizatoon boom in the same fashion as EU east european coutries had.

Surreal, recistas europeus conseguiram

Pena, vou assuntar com o Carlinhos.

@fmlara.bsky.social sabe dizer?