And huge thanks as well to the research team at BGL led by @pamherd.bsky.social and @giannella.bsky.social on the paper.

Luke's great summary blog here:

donmoynihan.substack.com/p/how-a-van-...

The intervention itself was a relatively limited investment in state capacity, and involved a small number of federal workers, but generated outsized returns.

Huge thanks to @lukef.bsky.social and the team at the former U.S. Digital Service for their work and service to make this happen!

Paper also finds an increase in overall Medicaid renewal rates of 7.7 percentage points and a decrease in procedural denials of 8.3 percentage points. Since these 4 states represent 40% of Medicaid enrollees, millions of people were able to retain critical coverage who would have otherwise lost it.

Difference-in-differences and event study methods were used to rigorously identify impact.

The paper finds an increase of 21.6 percentage points for automated renewal rates in these 4 states compared with nonintervention states.

Paper estimates the effect of partnerships between the former U.S. Digital Service and Medicaid agencies in South Carolina, New York, California, and Wisconsin in late 2023 to increase automated renewal of Medicaid participants during unwinding.

Seems like the only question is where among various lightly regulated risky financial markets it will start.

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/07/o...