Jazz Data Team
@jazzdatateam.bsky.social
Counting for Jazz for Mayor
Short memo: http://www.jazzformayor.com/s/State-of-the-Minneapolis-Mayoral-Race-toplines.pdf
Long memo: http://www.jazzformayor.com/s/State-of-the-Minneapolis-Mayoral-Race.pdf
Short memo: http://www.jazzformayor.com/s/State-of-the-Minneapolis-Mayoral-Race-toplines.pdf
Long memo: http://www.jazzformayor.com/s/State-of-the-Minneapolis-Mayoral-Race.pdf
12/18 Let's look at the 2021 model, too. Again, the step-by-step simulation is in the whitepaper. So are the rest of the likely voter models.
Jazz needs +5 points of total support to get to round 2. If Fateh loses 7%, he does not progress.
Jazz needs +5 points of total support to get to round 2. If Fateh loses 7%, he does not progress.
October 6, 2025 at 7:00 PM
12/18 Let's look at the 2021 model, too. Again, the step-by-step simulation is in the whitepaper. So are the rest of the likely voter models.
Jazz needs +5 points of total support to get to round 2. If Fateh loses 7%, he does not progress.
Jazz needs +5 points of total support to get to round 2. If Fateh loses 7%, he does not progress.
11/18 We've got the vote-counting mechanics, voter preference data, and tons of likely voter models. Let's simulate!
For full methods and step-by-step details, check the whitepaper in our bio.
But here are the interesting results using the 2017 model.
For full methods and step-by-step details, check the whitepaper in our bio.
But here are the interesting results using the 2017 model.
October 6, 2025 at 7:00 PM
11/18 We've got the vote-counting mechanics, voter preference data, and tons of likely voter models. Let's simulate!
For full methods and step-by-step details, check the whitepaper in our bio.
But here are the interesting results using the 2017 model.
For full methods and step-by-step details, check the whitepaper in our bio.
But here are the interesting results using the 2017 model.
10/18 For example, look at the first round votes again. But instead of looking at all voters, let's see what it would look like if voters turned out like they did in 2017. Pretty good for that Frey fellow!
But remember: this is only first choice votes and we use ranked choice voting in Minneapolis.
But remember: this is only first choice votes and we use ranked choice voting in Minneapolis.
October 6, 2025 at 7:00 PM
10/18 For example, look at the first round votes again. But instead of looking at all voters, let's see what it would look like if voters turned out like they did in 2017. Pretty good for that Frey fellow!
But remember: this is only first choice votes and we use ranked choice voting in Minneapolis.
But remember: this is only first choice votes and we use ranked choice voting in Minneapolis.
October 6, 2025 at 7:00 PM
4/18 In a ranked-choice election, it's not just about first picks. We asked about voters' 2nd and 3rd choices too. And the full picture?
Way more promising: Jazz trails the incumbent by just 5 points in total support across all ranks.
Way more promising: Jazz trails the incumbent by just 5 points in total support across all ranks.
October 6, 2025 at 7:00 PM
4/18 In a ranked-choice election, it's not just about first picks. We asked about voters' 2nd and 3rd choices too. And the full picture?
Way more promising: Jazz trails the incumbent by just 5 points in total support across all ranks.
Way more promising: Jazz trails the incumbent by just 5 points in total support across all ranks.
3/18 Minnesota is known for high voter turnout, but the highest turnout for a Mayor's race in recent history is just over 50%. We'll talk about likely voter models in a bit.
October 6, 2025 at 7:00 PM
3/18 Minnesota is known for high voter turnout, but the highest turnout for a Mayor's race in recent history is just over 50%. We'll talk about likely voter models in a bit.
2/18 Our numbers for first round preference match the other poll pretty closely. This might mean:
1. We ran an okay poll! Well done.
2. Our numbers reflect the demographics of all registered voters in the city. They are also likely reporting those numbers. That is: this assumes 100% voter turnout.
1. We ran an okay poll! Well done.
2. Our numbers reflect the demographics of all registered voters in the city. They are also likely reporting those numbers. That is: this assumes 100% voter turnout.
October 6, 2025 at 7:00 PM
2/18 Our numbers for first round preference match the other poll pretty closely. This might mean:
1. We ran an okay poll! Well done.
2. Our numbers reflect the demographics of all registered voters in the city. They are also likely reporting those numbers. That is: this assumes 100% voter turnout.
1. We ran an okay poll! Well done.
2. Our numbers reflect the demographics of all registered voters in the city. They are also likely reporting those numbers. That is: this assumes 100% voter turnout.