Javier Carbonell
@javiercarbonell.bsky.social
Deputy Director, Future Policy Lab | Policy Analyst, European Policy Centre | Teaching Assistant, Sciences Po | PhD Candidate, University of Edinburgh | Inequality, nationalism, far-right and youth
https://sites.google.com/view/javiercarbonell/home
https://sites.google.com/view/javiercarbonell/home
The centre cannot hold, and it is better to collaborate with a pro-democratic, affordability-focused, growing far-left than with an increasingly authoritarian far-right.
You can read more about it on my latest piece for the @epc-official.bsky.social
You can read more about it on my latest piece for the @epc-official.bsky.social
November 7, 2025 at 10:28 AM
The centre cannot hold, and it is better to collaborate with a pro-democratic, affordability-focused, growing far-left than with an increasingly authoritarian far-right.
You can read more about it on my latest piece for the @epc-official.bsky.social
You can read more about it on my latest piece for the @epc-official.bsky.social
But the far-right is: anti-EU, pro-Russia and increasingly authoritarian.
It is time to consider partnerships with pro-redistribution, democratic and internationalist forces on the far left, many of which are clearly pro-European and focus greatly on affordability.
It is time to consider partnerships with pro-redistribution, democratic and internationalist forces on the far left, many of which are clearly pro-European and focus greatly on affordability.
November 7, 2025 at 10:28 AM
But the far-right is: anti-EU, pro-Russia and increasingly authoritarian.
It is time to consider partnerships with pro-redistribution, democratic and internationalist forces on the far left, many of which are clearly pro-European and focus greatly on affordability.
It is time to consider partnerships with pro-redistribution, democratic and internationalist forces on the far left, many of which are clearly pro-European and focus greatly on affordability.
Given current electoral results, centrist parties have to collaborate to some extent with radical parties. The question is no longer whether to work with parties on the extremes, but which ones.
This is why the EPP is clearly flirting with the far right, especially in national governments.
This is why the EPP is clearly flirting with the far right, especially in national governments.
November 7, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Given current electoral results, centrist parties have to collaborate to some extent with radical parties. The question is no longer whether to work with parties on the extremes, but which ones.
This is why the EPP is clearly flirting with the far right, especially in national governments.
This is why the EPP is clearly flirting with the far right, especially in national governments.
2.- The second thing is that Centrist parties should look to their far-left, not their far-right.
The rise of democratic socialists in the US, Die Linke in Germany, La France Insoumise in France and the recent surge of the UK Green Party indicate that Europe’s far left is also growing.
The rise of democratic socialists in the US, Die Linke in Germany, La France Insoumise in France and the recent surge of the UK Green Party indicate that Europe’s far left is also growing.
November 7, 2025 at 10:28 AM
2.- The second thing is that Centrist parties should look to their far-left, not their far-right.
The rise of democratic socialists in the US, Die Linke in Germany, La France Insoumise in France and the recent surge of the UK Green Party indicate that Europe’s far left is also growing.
The rise of democratic socialists in the US, Die Linke in Germany, La France Insoumise in France and the recent surge of the UK Green Party indicate that Europe’s far left is also growing.
We have exactly the same concerns in Europe. Cost of living is by far the most important topic in the EU, that is what we should be talking about.
November 7, 2025 at 10:28 AM
We have exactly the same concerns in Europe. Cost of living is by far the most important topic in the EU, that is what we should be talking about.
Mamdani won an impressive 84% of women under 29 and 68% of young New York men, proving that the far-right trend of the young is not inevitable. Y
outh can be mobilised behind democratic platforms when affordability concerns are addressed directly.
outh can be mobilised behind democratic platforms when affordability concerns are addressed directly.
November 7, 2025 at 10:28 AM
Mamdani won an impressive 84% of women under 29 and 68% of young New York men, proving that the far-right trend of the young is not inevitable. Y
outh can be mobilised behind democratic platforms when affordability concerns are addressed directly.
outh can be mobilised behind democratic platforms when affordability concerns are addressed directly.
🗳️ Mamdani's victory means two things for Europe.
1.- It's all about affordability. I am often asked why so many young men are moving to the far right and what can be done about it. It's simple: address their economic precarity.
1.- It's all about affordability. I am often asked why so many young men are moving to the far right and what can be done about it. It's simple: address their economic precarity.
November 7, 2025 at 10:28 AM
🗳️ Mamdani's victory means two things for Europe.
1.- It's all about affordability. I am often asked why so many young men are moving to the far right and what can be done about it. It's simple: address their economic precarity.
1.- It's all about affordability. I am often asked why so many young men are moving to the far right and what can be done about it. It's simple: address their economic precarity.
Feliz Día de la Hipanidad, necesitamos un contrarrelato que sea 1) anti-imperialista y 2) nos haga sentir orgullosos.
La izquierda solo tiene el primero pero necesitamos ambos. Hay toda una tradición ESPAÑOLA crítica con el colonialismo, eso es lo que deberíamos estar celebrando.
La izquierda solo tiene el primero pero necesitamos ambos. Hay toda una tradición ESPAÑOLA crítica con el colonialismo, eso es lo que deberíamos estar celebrando.
October 12, 2025 at 9:59 AM
Feliz Día de la Hipanidad, necesitamos un contrarrelato que sea 1) anti-imperialista y 2) nos haga sentir orgullosos.
La izquierda solo tiene el primero pero necesitamos ambos. Hay toda una tradición ESPAÑOLA crítica con el colonialismo, eso es lo que deberíamos estar celebrando.
La izquierda solo tiene el primero pero necesitamos ambos. Hay toda una tradición ESPAÑOLA crítica con el colonialismo, eso es lo que deberíamos estar celebrando.
JOB ADVERT: If you are a recent graduate with a strong interest in EU institutions, enlargement, and/or democratic backsliding, come work with us at the @epc-official.bsky.social as a Programme Assistant!
Link: epc.eu/vacancies/pr...
Deadline: 15th September, but apply as soon as possible!
Link: epc.eu/vacancies/pr...
Deadline: 15th September, but apply as soon as possible!
September 1, 2025 at 3:41 PM
JOB ADVERT: If you are a recent graduate with a strong interest in EU institutions, enlargement, and/or democratic backsliding, come work with us at the @epc-official.bsky.social as a Programme Assistant!
Link: epc.eu/vacancies/pr...
Deadline: 15th September, but apply as soon as possible!
Link: epc.eu/vacancies/pr...
Deadline: 15th September, but apply as soon as possible!
Obviamente la defensa es necesaria y protege nuestro bienestar pero es que los mismos que nos piden reforzar las murallas de la ciudad luego dejan pasar al Caballo de Troya.
Nadie que pacte con la extrema derecha puede hablar con legitimidad de seguridad europea.
Nadie que pacte con la extrema derecha puede hablar con legitimidad de seguridad europea.
June 28, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Obviamente la defensa es necesaria y protege nuestro bienestar pero es que los mismos que nos piden reforzar las murallas de la ciudad luego dejan pasar al Caballo de Troya.
Nadie que pacte con la extrema derecha puede hablar con legitimidad de seguridad europea.
Nadie que pacte con la extrema derecha puede hablar con legitimidad de seguridad europea.
Hay un argumento que me da mucha rabia, y es que la defensa es necesaria para proteger el bienestar, porque es literalmente al contrario.
June 28, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Hay un argumento que me da mucha rabia, y es que la defensa es necesaria para proteger el bienestar, porque es literalmente al contrario.
Are young women really becoming more progressive? Is there really a masculinity crisis? What does the left need to do to win back power?
Come join me for a live recording of the fast-growing #TalkBrussels podcast 🎙.
🕑 Monday 23rd at 7:30 pm in Brussels
Register here 👇
lnkd.in/dsDVqV5n
Come join me for a live recording of the fast-growing #TalkBrussels podcast 🎙.
🕑 Monday 23rd at 7:30 pm in Brussels
Register here 👇
lnkd.in/dsDVqV5n
June 19, 2025 at 1:20 PM
Are young women really becoming more progressive? Is there really a masculinity crisis? What does the left need to do to win back power?
Come join me for a live recording of the fast-growing #TalkBrussels podcast 🎙.
🕑 Monday 23rd at 7:30 pm in Brussels
Register here 👇
lnkd.in/dsDVqV5n
Come join me for a live recording of the fast-growing #TalkBrussels podcast 🎙.
🕑 Monday 23rd at 7:30 pm in Brussels
Register here 👇
lnkd.in/dsDVqV5n
Yesterday, Portugal took a turn to the right, and the far-right achieved a historic result. Why did this happen?
Today at 2 PM, we’ll break down the results with the brilliant @valentimvicente.bsky.social and @susanafrexes.bsky.social
Join us online: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
Today at 2 PM, we’ll break down the results with the brilliant @valentimvicente.bsky.social and @susanafrexes.bsky.social
Join us online: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
May 19, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Yesterday, Portugal took a turn to the right, and the far-right achieved a historic result. Why did this happen?
Today at 2 PM, we’ll break down the results with the brilliant @valentimvicente.bsky.social and @susanafrexes.bsky.social
Join us online: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
Today at 2 PM, we’ll break down the results with the brilliant @valentimvicente.bsky.social and @susanafrexes.bsky.social
Join us online: us02web.zoom.us/webi...
Muy contento de anunciar que este lunes estaré hablando sobre qué pasa con los hombres jóvenes y qué podemos hacer.
En @masmadrid.org, el Lunes 12, 18:30h
En @masmadrid.org, el Lunes 12, 18:30h
May 9, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Muy contento de anunciar que este lunes estaré hablando sobre qué pasa con los hombres jóvenes y qué podemos hacer.
En @masmadrid.org, el Lunes 12, 18:30h
En @masmadrid.org, el Lunes 12, 18:30h
I guess its time to post this map again
May 8, 2025 at 6:30 PM
I guess its time to post this map again
Thus, so far, Trump's effect is quite small because the far-right in Europe is a home-grown problem that requires home-grown solutions.
My colleague Tabea and I wrote the analysis for the @epc-official.bsky.social and it was picked up at @euronews.com by the great @letibat.bsky.social
My colleague Tabea and I wrote the analysis for the @epc-official.bsky.social and it was picked up at @euronews.com by the great @letibat.bsky.social
April 30, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Thus, so far, Trump's effect is quite small because the far-right in Europe is a home-grown problem that requires home-grown solutions.
My colleague Tabea and I wrote the analysis for the @epc-official.bsky.social and it was picked up at @euronews.com by the great @letibat.bsky.social
My colleague Tabea and I wrote the analysis for the @epc-official.bsky.social and it was picked up at @euronews.com by the great @letibat.bsky.social
There are two big implications.
1.- Trump is burning political capital at a crazy rate, it is now a problematic figure for the far-right.
@benansell.bsky.social is right to point that Trump has become the enemy that any political platform needs, but the effects are, so far, quite small.
1.- Trump is burning political capital at a crazy rate, it is now a problematic figure for the far-right.
@benansell.bsky.social is right to point that Trump has become the enemy that any political platform needs, but the effects are, so far, quite small.
April 30, 2025 at 10:15 AM
There are two big implications.
1.- Trump is burning political capital at a crazy rate, it is now a problematic figure for the far-right.
@benansell.bsky.social is right to point that Trump has become the enemy that any political platform needs, but the effects are, so far, quite small.
1.- Trump is burning political capital at a crazy rate, it is now a problematic figure for the far-right.
@benansell.bsky.social is right to point that Trump has become the enemy that any political platform needs, but the effects are, so far, quite small.
Variations: We seem to see a slight differences in variation among far-right party families. Trump's strengthening (after election) and weakening effects (after inauguration) being stronger for Patriots than for ECR or ESN, but again, minimal variation.
Trump matters, just not that much.
Trump matters, just not that much.
April 30, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Variations: We seem to see a slight differences in variation among far-right party families. Trump's strengthening (after election) and weakening effects (after inauguration) being stronger for Patriots than for ECR or ESN, but again, minimal variation.
Trump matters, just not that much.
Trump matters, just not that much.
So which hypothesis is right? Well... neither.
Data collected from the Poll of Polls suggests the variations in far-right support are minimal. Yes, some countries go a bit up, some slightly down, but the average is very stable.
Far-right support in April mirrors far-right support in October.
Data collected from the Poll of Polls suggests the variations in far-right support are minimal. Yes, some countries go a bit up, some slightly down, but the average is very stable.
Far-right support in April mirrors far-right support in October.
April 30, 2025 at 10:15 AM
So which hypothesis is right? Well... neither.
Data collected from the Poll of Polls suggests the variations in far-right support are minimal. Yes, some countries go a bit up, some slightly down, but the average is very stable.
Far-right support in April mirrors far-right support in October.
Data collected from the Poll of Polls suggests the variations in far-right support are minimal. Yes, some countries go a bit up, some slightly down, but the average is very stable.
Far-right support in April mirrors far-right support in October.
This is because tariffs affect all voters, including far-right ones and because of a "rally around the flag" effect (see Canada).
Suddenly, the far-right's best selling-point, the defense of the nation, becomes a liability as they are accused of supporting a foreign leader over national interests.
Suddenly, the far-right's best selling-point, the defense of the nation, becomes a liability as they are accused of supporting a foreign leader over national interests.
April 30, 2025 at 10:15 AM
This is because tariffs affect all voters, including far-right ones and because of a "rally around the flag" effect (see Canada).
Suddenly, the far-right's best selling-point, the defense of the nation, becomes a liability as they are accused of supporting a foreign leader over national interests.
Suddenly, the far-right's best selling-point, the defense of the nation, becomes a liability as they are accused of supporting a foreign leader over national interests.
Trump had a huge influence in Canadian elections. Is there a similar "TRUMP EFFECT" on European far-right parties? The answer is NO.
Contrary to much commentary, Trump has neither strengthen nor weakened the polling support for the far-right.
🧵with original 📈
Contrary to much commentary, Trump has neither strengthen nor weakened the polling support for the far-right.
🧵with original 📈
April 30, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Trump had a huge influence in Canadian elections. Is there a similar "TRUMP EFFECT" on European far-right parties? The answer is NO.
Contrary to much commentary, Trump has neither strengthen nor weakened the polling support for the far-right.
🧵with original 📈
Contrary to much commentary, Trump has neither strengthen nor weakened the polling support for the far-right.
🧵with original 📈
Bajando la edad de voto a los 16 BAJA LA ABSTENCIÓN. Votan más que los de 18. Gráfico de @eltablerotv.bsky.social
Y los que pueden votar con 16 o 17 participan más en la democracia y en la política A LO LARGO DE TODA LA VIDA. Si es que toda la evidencia es positiva.
Y los que pueden votar con 16 o 17 participan más en la democracia y en la política A LO LARGO DE TODA LA VIDA. Si es que toda la evidencia es positiva.
April 24, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Bajando la edad de voto a los 16 BAJA LA ABSTENCIÓN. Votan más que los de 18. Gráfico de @eltablerotv.bsky.social
Y los que pueden votar con 16 o 17 participan más en la democracia y en la política A LO LARGO DE TODA LA VIDA. Si es que toda la evidencia es positiva.
Y los que pueden votar con 16 o 17 participan más en la democracia y en la política A LO LARGO DE TODA LA VIDA. Si es que toda la evidencia es positiva.
Minúscula. Es una encuesta electoral que sirve sobre todo para ver cambios entre partidos a nivel general, en cuanto cruzas varias variables la cosa empieza a ser muy pequeño. Si es q hay que hacer algo más grande pero nadie lo hace. La realidad es q NO sabemos bien qué pasaría si bajaramos la edad
April 23, 2025 at 4:23 PM
Minúscula. Es una encuesta electoral que sirve sobre todo para ver cambios entre partidos a nivel general, en cuanto cruzas varias variables la cosa empieza a ser muy pequeño. Si es q hay que hacer algo más grande pero nadie lo hace. La realidad es q NO sabemos bien qué pasaría si bajaramos la edad
Mañana jueves hablaré de todo esto en una charla ONLINE. Apuntáos si queréis criticarme o preguntarme lo que sea.
🗓️ Jueves 24 de abril
📷 19:30h,
@psoeparis.bsky.social
@futurepolicylab.bsky.social, @psoebruselas.bsky.social
Inscribíos aquí: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
🗓️ Jueves 24 de abril
📷 19:30h,
@psoeparis.bsky.social
@futurepolicylab.bsky.social, @psoebruselas.bsky.social
Inscribíos aquí: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
April 23, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Mañana jueves hablaré de todo esto en una charla ONLINE. Apuntáos si queréis criticarme o preguntarme lo que sea.
🗓️ Jueves 24 de abril
📷 19:30h,
@psoeparis.bsky.social
@futurepolicylab.bsky.social, @psoebruselas.bsky.social
Inscribíos aquí: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
🗓️ Jueves 24 de abril
📷 19:30h,
@psoeparis.bsky.social
@futurepolicylab.bsky.social, @psoebruselas.bsky.social
Inscribíos aquí: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Lo que hay, como no podía ser de otra manera, es mucha variedad y mucho de género.
Tened en cuenta que son datos de la última encuesta de
@40dbes.bsky.social y que son muestras muy pequeñas.
Llevo dos años clamando en el desierto para que hagamos una encuesta grande a jóvenes de 16 a 20.
Tened en cuenta que son datos de la última encuesta de
@40dbes.bsky.social y que son muestras muy pequeñas.
Llevo dos años clamando en el desierto para que hagamos una encuesta grande a jóvenes de 16 a 20.
April 23, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Lo que hay, como no podía ser de otra manera, es mucha variedad y mucho de género.
Tened en cuenta que son datos de la última encuesta de
@40dbes.bsky.social y que son muestras muy pequeñas.
Llevo dos años clamando en el desierto para que hagamos una encuesta grande a jóvenes de 16 a 20.
Tened en cuenta que son datos de la última encuesta de
@40dbes.bsky.social y que son muestras muy pequeñas.
Llevo dos años clamando en el desierto para que hagamos una encuesta grande a jóvenes de 16 a 20.