Steve that’s so great! Please say hi to Anton Vicar, the wine director there, for me.

Are these tariffs a serious proposal, or just a negotiating tactic? I hope it's the latter. But the reality is that even the discussion of them has negative consequences for American wineries. Their implementation would usher in a new era with much greater and more unpredictable dangers. 11 & end 🧵/

The US wine market has grown from ~4 bottles per person per year in the 1950s to ~15 today. It has vaulted the US to its position as the world's largest wine market and a destination for winemakers domestic and international with dreams of making wines that will compete on the world's stage. 10/

It would also mean the end of an era for wine in America. For nearly a century, the United States has enjoyed the world's most dynamic wine market, with vibrant domestic wineries in every state and the world's best selection of imported wines. That has led to the flowering of wine culture here. 9/

Can a neighborhood Italian joint replace its inexpensive Chianti with a California Sangiovese? Probably not when that grape represents less than one-half of one percent of the red wine grape acreage here in California. Instead, they probably sell more cocktails or beer and less wine. 8/

Would there be a larger piece of the pie here for California wineries? Not much of one, I don't think. Last time, we saw a period where restaurants and retailers scavenged inventory from warehouses around the country, and then sales dropped sharply as buyers waited in hope tariffs were rescinded. 7/

Would tariffs hurt European producers? Absolutely. But because of the channels that alcohol must follow, Americans would be hurt more. The US Wine Trade Alliance has calculated that for every $1.00 in damage tariffs would inflict on the EU, they cause $4.52 in losses to American businesses. 6/

If European wine is targeted in a new round of tariffs, it's very likely that American wine will be on the list of reciprocal targets. Last year at #TablasCreek we invested over $42,000 to grow our sales in our export markets, and saw significant growth. Prospects for 2025? Looking shaky. 5/

The American wine ecosystem is already under record strain, with layoffs at the country's two largest distributors. If a major producer or distributor should declare bankruptcy the cascade of impacts on their suppliers and customers would almost certainly cause other failures. 4/

Could American wines fill in the gap? Not for years. American wine production is currently ~300 million cases. Consumption of wine in the USA is ~375 million cases. It takes roughly five years for new plantings to produce grapes, be fermented and bottled, and eventually reach the market. 3/

A producer like #TablasCreek cannot sell directly to restaurants and retailers in most states. So, our success is dependent upon distributors. Many of our distributors get the majority of their business from European wines. For those distributors, the proposed tariffs amount to a death sentence. 2/

Thanks Randall! I can’t wait to hear you tell Syrah’s story at next month’s #RhoneRangersExperienxe seminar.

Yep. I've followed Randall since I signed up. But for whatever reason his posts don't often show up in my feed. I'm still figuring out this algorithm.

If you'd like to track Syrah's wild ride in California, from darling to pariah and back, see this blog I wrote back in 2020. Meanwhile, let's raise a glass on #InternationalSyrahDay to this lovely, dark, meaty, ageable, mercurial, adaptable grape. tablascreek.typepad.com/tablas/2020/... 5 & end 🧵/

Over the last decade, Syrah has settled into a more comfortable niche, as a top-10 but not top-5 grape in America, with most Syrahs made by Rhone specialists. And I believe strongly that there's no grape more likely to punch above what it costs than American Syrah. Most are excellent. 4/

And right as Syrah was to be gathering momentum, the movie Sideways came out, launching Pinot Noir sales into the stratosphere. Merlot is typically mentioned as the main casualty, but in a 2014 blog I submitted that Pinot's rise sucked all of Syrah's promotional energy out of the room as well. 3/