Jaroslava Barbieri
@jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social
Research Fellow, Ukraine Forum, Russia and Eurasia Programme, ChathamHouse | University of Oxford alumna | Views my own
9/ The core lesson from Ukraine is that freedoms and peace cannot be taken for granted. Europeans need to pivot away from a ‘peace mindset’ and be ready to fight to preserve these values. 🔚
December 4, 2025 at 2:46 PM
9/ The core lesson from Ukraine is that freedoms and peace cannot be taken for granted. Europeans need to pivot away from a ‘peace mindset’ and be ready to fight to preserve these values. 🔚
8/ However, many of Europe’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons and bolster its military capabilities are all too little, too late.
December 4, 2025 at 2:46 PM
8/ However, many of Europe’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons and bolster its military capabilities are all too little, too late.
7/ Putin's warnings about possibly waging war on Europe must be taken seriously. This threat is visibly manifesting in Russia’s escalatory grey zone operations and different national models for voluntary/mandatory conscription being explored across the continent.
December 4, 2025 at 2:46 PM
7/ Putin's warnings about possibly waging war on Europe must be taken seriously. This threat is visibly manifesting in Russia’s escalatory grey zone operations and different national models for voluntary/mandatory conscription being explored across the continent.
6/ Mechanisms like Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) are being utilized by European NATO members to purchase US systems, strategically tapping into Trump’s transactional diplomacy to counterbalance any potential US temptation toward normalising relations with Russia for commercial gain.
December 4, 2025 at 2:45 PM
6/ Mechanisms like Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) are being utilized by European NATO members to purchase US systems, strategically tapping into Trump’s transactional diplomacy to counterbalance any potential US temptation toward normalising relations with Russia for commercial gain.
5/ However, Europe's room for maneuver is limited by its continued dependence on the US for critical military capabilities, including sophisticated air defence, long-range munitions, and intelligence.
December 4, 2025 at 2:45 PM
5/ However, Europe's room for maneuver is limited by its continued dependence on the US for critical military capabilities, including sophisticated air defence, long-range munitions, and intelligence.
4/ European powers remain largely in reactive mode, primarily focused on preventing worse-case scenarios, while Moscow and Washington continue to set the agenda.
December 4, 2025 at 2:45 PM
4/ European powers remain largely in reactive mode, primarily focused on preventing worse-case scenarios, while Moscow and Washington continue to set the agenda.
3/ It is inconceivable from a political, military, and legal standpoint for Ukraine to surrender territory it currently controls. This position is constitutionally mandated and backed by public support and military necessity.
December 4, 2025 at 2:44 PM
3/ It is inconceivable from a political, military, and legal standpoint for Ukraine to surrender territory it currently controls. This position is constitutionally mandated and backed by public support and military necessity.
2/ Moscow actively seeks to drive a wedge between Washington and Brussels, portraying Europe as the uncooperative and stubborn party simply for advocating its red lines alongside Ukraine.
December 4, 2025 at 2:44 PM
2/ Moscow actively seeks to drive a wedge between Washington and Brussels, portraying Europe as the uncooperative and stubborn party simply for advocating its red lines alongside Ukraine.
3/ “His desire to be seen as someone that puts loyalty to the national interest [won out] over loyalty to his closest allies”. European allies may have lobbied Mr Zelensky to cast aside Yermak but there had already been mis-steps in terms of managing White House relations.’ 🔚
November 29, 2025 at 10:50 AM
3/ “His desire to be seen as someone that puts loyalty to the national interest [won out] over loyalty to his closest allies”. European allies may have lobbied Mr Zelensky to cast aside Yermak but there had already been mis-steps in terms of managing White House relations.’ 🔚
2/ “The corruption scandal was becoming so toxic for Zelensky’s image and that political vulnerability was really, really dangerous given the renewed negotiations on terms favourable to Moscow.” […] In the end, the president’s “survival instincts” kicked in. […]
November 29, 2025 at 10:50 AM
2/ “The corruption scandal was becoming so toxic for Zelensky’s image and that political vulnerability was really, really dangerous given the renewed negotiations on terms favourable to Moscow.” […] In the end, the president’s “survival instincts” kicked in. […]
1/ Jaroslava Barbieri, a research fellow at the Chatham House think tank, said the timing of Mr Yermak’s departure was crucial. Last weekend, the chief of staff went to Geneva for talks with the US over a 28-point peace plan seen in Kyiv as a capitulation to Russia’s wishes. […]
November 29, 2025 at 10:49 AM
1/ Jaroslava Barbieri, a research fellow at the Chatham House think tank, said the timing of Mr Yermak’s departure was crucial. Last weekend, the chief of staff went to Geneva for talks with the US over a 28-point peace plan seen in Kyiv as a capitulation to Russia’s wishes. […]
The interview is available here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3dh...
Russia-Ukraine war: Trump sets November 27 deadline for Zelenksyy to accept his 28-point plan
YouTube video by DW News
www.youtube.com
November 21, 2025 at 8:48 PM
The interview is available here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3dh...
4/ While Trump is no stranger to imposing deadlines that have yielded no results, this is still a defining moment for the int’l coalition supporting #Ukraine. The coming days will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the war and the security architecture of Europe. 🔚
November 21, 2025 at 5:13 PM
4/ While Trump is no stranger to imposing deadlines that have yielded no results, this is still a defining moment for the int’l coalition supporting #Ukraine. The coming days will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the war and the security architecture of Europe. 🔚
3/ However, they are balancing this with the need to delay a potential US withdrawal of support, given the vital role of US-supplied air defense systems, long-range precision munitions, and intelligence for Ukraine's defence.
November 21, 2025 at 5:13 PM
3/ However, they are balancing this with the need to delay a potential US withdrawal of support, given the vital role of US-supplied air defense systems, long-range precision munitions, and intelligence for Ukraine's defence.
2/ European leaders are scrambling to develop a unified position and a counterproposal, following the fundamental principle: there can be no negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine. European efforts are focused on ensuring Kyiv and Europe's red lines are not crossed.
November 21, 2025 at 5:12 PM
2/ European leaders are scrambling to develop a unified position and a counterproposal, following the fundamental principle: there can be no negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine. European efforts are focused on ensuring Kyiv and Europe's red lines are not crossed.
1/ This proposed deal is widely seen as equating to Ukraine's capitulation. President Zelenskyy is in a near-impossible position. After years of immense sacrifice, the Ukrainian people will not allow him to agree to a deal that forfeits sovereignty and rewards Russian aggression.
November 21, 2025 at 5:12 PM
1/ This proposed deal is widely seen as equating to Ukraine's capitulation. President Zelenskyy is in a near-impossible position. After years of immense sacrifice, the Ukrainian people will not allow him to agree to a deal that forfeits sovereignty and rewards Russian aggression.
5/ Some suggest Washington & Moscow may view the political turbulence as an opportunity to push Kyiv toward making concessions it would normally reject. This is misleading: Ukrainians will continue to demand accountability from the govt re. corruption & even more so re. the terms of any peace deal 🔚
November 21, 2025 at 1:28 PM
5/ Some suggest Washington & Moscow may view the political turbulence as an opportunity to push Kyiv toward making concessions it would normally reject. This is misleading: Ukrainians will continue to demand accountability from the govt re. corruption & even more so re. the terms of any peace deal 🔚
4/ Ukrainian officials have deemed the proposal unacceptable, as it reportedly includes demands that violate Kyiv’s ‘red lines’ such as ceding to Moscow territories the Russian army doesn’t control, significantly reducing Ukraine's armed forces, and amnesty for Russian war crimes.
November 21, 2025 at 1:27 PM
4/ Ukrainian officials have deemed the proposal unacceptable, as it reportedly includes demands that violate Kyiv’s ‘red lines’ such as ceding to Moscow territories the Russian army doesn’t control, significantly reducing Ukraine's armed forces, and amnesty for Russian war crimes.
3/ Meanwhile, a new diplomatic front has opened with the presentation of a 28-point draft ‘peace plan’ reportedly drafted by US and Russian officials without the participation of either the Ukrainian or any other European leaders.
November 21, 2025 at 1:27 PM
3/ Meanwhile, a new diplomatic front has opened with the presentation of a 28-point draft ‘peace plan’ reportedly drafted by US and Russian officials without the participation of either the Ukrainian or any other European leaders.
2/ Domestically, this political storm is seen by some domestic opponents and even allies as a window of opportunity to push for long-overdue institutional reforms, greater transparency, and a reduction in the centralization of power.
November 21, 2025 at 1:27 PM
2/ Domestically, this political storm is seen by some domestic opponents and even allies as a window of opportunity to push for long-overdue institutional reforms, greater transparency, and a reduction in the centralization of power.
1/ Corruption allegations concerning funds intended for energy infrastructure defence against Russian attacks and implicating top officials and associates close to the Ukrainian President, have fueled public anger and led to calls for greater accountability.
November 21, 2025 at 1:26 PM
1/ Corruption allegations concerning funds intended for energy infrastructure defence against Russian attacks and implicating top officials and associates close to the Ukrainian President, have fueled public anger and led to calls for greater accountability.