Jan6thData
@jan6thdata.bsky.social
Data visualizations on 1,582 people publicly charged in the #January6th attack & unique new variables coded by research team, found nowhere else.
Jan. 6 Voter Turnout, 2016-2024
Notes: Data exclude 19 deceased voters.
Arrested/Not in Prison includes defendants never in prison and those who completed prison term prior to Nov. 2024.
Imprisoned voters either were released early or voted early, or are from DC, ME, VT (no felony restrictions).
Notes: Data exclude 19 deceased voters.
Arrested/Not in Prison includes defendants never in prison and those who completed prison term prior to Nov. 2024.
Imprisoned voters either were released early or voted early, or are from DC, ME, VT (no felony restrictions).
May 6, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Jan. 6 Voter Turnout, 2016-2024
Notes: Data exclude 19 deceased voters.
Arrested/Not in Prison includes defendants never in prison and those who completed prison term prior to Nov. 2024.
Imprisoned voters either were released early or voted early, or are from DC, ME, VT (no felony restrictions).
Notes: Data exclude 19 deceased voters.
Arrested/Not in Prison includes defendants never in prison and those who completed prison term prior to Nov. 2024.
Imprisoned voters either were released early or voted early, or are from DC, ME, VT (no felony restrictions).
Sources: @jan6thdata.bsky.social (Rugh & Felin-Chavez 2025 using FBI data, official state voter files), UF Election Lab ( @electproject.bsky.social McDonald 2025).
2016-2024 panel of voter history states: AK, AZ, CT, DC, FL, GA, ID, KS, LA, MA, MD, ME, NC, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, TX, VT, WA, WV.
2016-2024 panel of voter history states: AK, AZ, CT, DC, FL, GA, ID, KS, LA, MA, MD, ME, NC, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, TX, VT, WA, WV.
May 6, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Sources: @jan6thdata.bsky.social (Rugh & Felin-Chavez 2025 using FBI data, official state voter files), UF Election Lab ( @electproject.bsky.social McDonald 2025).
2016-2024 panel of voter history states: AK, AZ, CT, DC, FL, GA, ID, KS, LA, MA, MD, ME, NC, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, TX, VT, WA, WV.
2016-2024 panel of voter history states: AK, AZ, CT, DC, FL, GA, ID, KS, LA, MA, MD, ME, NC, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, TX, VT, WA, WV.
2016-2024 trend is key: Compared to the baseline of 2016, Trump's most devoted, arrested J6 supporters willing to commit crimes and convicted of committing serious felonies:
+6 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. J6ers not arrested
+13 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. US eligible voters
3/
+6 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. J6ers not arrested
+13 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. US eligible voters
3/
May 6, 2025 at 6:02 PM
2016-2024 trend is key: Compared to the baseline of 2016, Trump's most devoted, arrested J6 supporters willing to commit crimes and convicted of committing serious felonies:
+6 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. J6ers not arrested
+13 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. US eligible voters
3/
+6 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. J6ers not arrested
+13 pts HIGHER turnout 2024 vs. 2016 vs. US eligible voters
3/
Using a difference-in-difference approach, comparing 2024 turnout with differences in 2020, we find that the net effect of J6 arrest was modest, -2.5 pts for 2020-2024 vs. J6ers not arrested.
For 2016-2024, J6er arrest turnout up +17 vs. +11 for J6er not arrested, net diff-in-diff = UP +6 pts
2/
For 2016-2024, J6er arrest turnout up +17 vs. +11 for J6er not arrested, net diff-in-diff = UP +6 pts
2/
May 6, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Using a difference-in-difference approach, comparing 2024 turnout with differences in 2020, we find that the net effect of J6 arrest was modest, -2.5 pts for 2020-2024 vs. J6ers not arrested.
For 2016-2024, J6er arrest turnout up +17 vs. +11 for J6er not arrested, net diff-in-diff = UP +6 pts
2/
For 2016-2024, J6er arrest turnout up +17 vs. +11 for J6er not arrested, net diff-in-diff = UP +6 pts
2/
582 arrested J6 defendants eligible to vote in 2024 turned out at higher rate than US voters: 69% v. 64% = +5
These 582 arrested J6 eligible voters were no less likely to vote than 446 rioters never arrested: diff = -0.1, or arrest effect = 0
Turnout diff. for 203 J6ers in prison: -58 pts
1/
These 582 arrested J6 eligible voters were no less likely to vote than 446 rioters never arrested: diff = -0.1, or arrest effect = 0
Turnout diff. for 203 J6ers in prison: -58 pts
1/
May 6, 2025 at 6:02 PM
582 arrested J6 defendants eligible to vote in 2024 turned out at higher rate than US voters: 69% v. 64% = +5
These 582 arrested J6 eligible voters were no less likely to vote than 446 rioters never arrested: diff = -0.1, or arrest effect = 0
Turnout diff. for 203 J6ers in prison: -58 pts
1/
These 582 arrested J6 eligible voters were no less likely to vote than 446 rioters never arrested: diff = -0.1, or arrest effect = 0
Turnout diff. for 203 J6ers in prison: -58 pts
1/
12 non-citizens charged in #Jan6 attack from:
Vietnam
China
Brazil
DR Congo
Georgia
Iran
Mexico
Taiwan
One previously detained by ICE, one student visa, one an asylee.
h/t @emptywheel.bsky.social
And one worked for the "biggest Russian speaking security...agency" in the US
h/t @ryanjreilly.com
Vietnam
China
Brazil
DR Congo
Georgia
Iran
Mexico
Taiwan
One previously detained by ICE, one student visa, one an asylee.
h/t @emptywheel.bsky.social
And one worked for the "biggest Russian speaking security...agency" in the US
h/t @ryanjreilly.com
March 11, 2025 at 10:41 PM
12 non-citizens charged in #Jan6 attack from:
Vietnam
China
Brazil
DR Congo
Georgia
Iran
Mexico
Taiwan
One previously detained by ICE, one student visa, one an asylee.
h/t @emptywheel.bsky.social
And one worked for the "biggest Russian speaking security...agency" in the US
h/t @ryanjreilly.com
Vietnam
China
Brazil
DR Congo
Georgia
Iran
Mexico
Taiwan
One previously detained by ICE, one student visa, one an asylee.
h/t @emptywheel.bsky.social
And one worked for the "biggest Russian speaking security...agency" in the US
h/t @ryanjreilly.com
On this #internationalwomensday it is worth remembering how overwhelmingly male the mob on #January6th was - 87% men by arrests - more male than the US Military, Senate, State Legislatures, or current Cabinet.
Only Federal prisoners and Fortune 500 CEOs are more male-dominated, and not by much.
Only Federal prisoners and Fortune 500 CEOs are more male-dominated, and not by much.
March 9, 2025 at 3:56 AM
On this #internationalwomensday it is worth remembering how overwhelmingly male the mob on #January6th was - 87% men by arrests - more male than the US Military, Senate, State Legislatures, or current Cabinet.
Only Federal prisoners and Fortune 500 CEOs are more male-dominated, and not by much.
Only Federal prisoners and Fortune 500 CEOs are more male-dominated, and not by much.
Consider NYC, largest city in USA:
Of 19 arrested J6ers from New York City:
89% (17/19) are white
(Only 31% of NYC residents are white)
15/19 (79%) live in majority-white neighborhoods in a city that is, again, only 31% white
1 lived in a 100% all-white neighborhood, in Brooklyn
0 from the Bronx
Of 19 arrested J6ers from New York City:
89% (17/19) are white
(Only 31% of NYC residents are white)
15/19 (79%) live in majority-white neighborhoods in a city that is, again, only 31% white
1 lived in a 100% all-white neighborhood, in Brooklyn
0 from the Bronx
March 7, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Consider NYC, largest city in USA:
Of 19 arrested J6ers from New York City:
89% (17/19) are white
(Only 31% of NYC residents are white)
15/19 (79%) live in majority-white neighborhoods in a city that is, again, only 31% white
1 lived in a 100% all-white neighborhood, in Brooklyn
0 from the Bronx
Of 19 arrested J6ers from New York City:
89% (17/19) are white
(Only 31% of NYC residents are white)
15/19 (79%) live in majority-white neighborhoods in a city that is, again, only 31% white
1 lived in a 100% all-white neighborhood, in Brooklyn
0 from the Bronx
One of the most stunning social facts is how racially segregated are the neighborhoods of arrested J6ers.
Take New York state
93/97 J6ers are white (96% vs. 52% of NYS pop.)
90% lived in 50%+ white neighborhoods
41% lived in 90%+ white areas
Typical J6er neighborhood was 86% white per 2020 census
Take New York state
93/97 J6ers are white (96% vs. 52% of NYS pop.)
90% lived in 50%+ white neighborhoods
41% lived in 90%+ white areas
Typical J6er neighborhood was 86% white per 2020 census
March 7, 2025 at 11:32 PM
One of the most stunning social facts is how racially segregated are the neighborhoods of arrested J6ers.
Take New York state
93/97 J6ers are white (96% vs. 52% of NYS pop.)
90% lived in 50%+ white neighborhoods
41% lived in 90%+ white areas
Typical J6er neighborhood was 86% white per 2020 census
Take New York state
93/97 J6ers are white (96% vs. 52% of NYS pop.)
90% lived in 50%+ white neighborhoods
41% lived in 90%+ white areas
Typical J6er neighborhood was 86% white per 2020 census
All 61 counties pop. 900K with a J6er listed below.
For the record, as far as we recall, Hartford County CT (pop. 897K) is the most populous US county without an *arrested J6er* (no doubt someone not arrested from there was in DC on J6), which is notable, since it is within driving distance to DC.
For the record, as far as we recall, Hartford County CT (pop. 897K) is the most populous US county without an *arrested J6er* (no doubt someone not arrested from there was in DC on J6), which is notable, since it is within driving distance to DC.
March 7, 2025 at 11:11 PM
All 61 counties pop. 900K with a J6er listed below.
For the record, as far as we recall, Hartford County CT (pop. 897K) is the most populous US county without an *arrested J6er* (no doubt someone not arrested from there was in DC on J6), which is notable, since it is within driving distance to DC.
For the record, as far as we recall, Hartford County CT (pop. 897K) is the most populous US county without an *arrested J6er* (no doubt someone not arrested from there was in DC on J6), which is notable, since it is within driving distance to DC.
Pinellas County FL (St. Petersburg-Clearwater) was home to the most J6ers arrested per 1M pop. (15.64) of any county >900,000 pop. by far.
Other faraway populous counties in the top 10: Denton TX, Pierce WA, Hillsborough FL (also Tampa Bay), Orange CA.
Tampa Bay an unmistakable J6er epicenter.
Other faraway populous counties in the top 10: Denton TX, Pierce WA, Hillsborough FL (also Tampa Bay), Orange CA.
Tampa Bay an unmistakable J6er epicenter.
March 7, 2025 at 11:05 PM
Pinellas County FL (St. Petersburg-Clearwater) was home to the most J6ers arrested per 1M pop. (15.64) of any county >900,000 pop. by far.
Other faraway populous counties in the top 10: Denton TX, Pierce WA, Hillsborough FL (also Tampa Bay), Orange CA.
Tampa Bay an unmistakable J6er epicenter.
Other faraway populous counties in the top 10: Denton TX, Pierce WA, Hillsborough FL (also Tampa Bay), Orange CA.
Tampa Bay an unmistakable J6er epicenter.
20 Asian Americans were arrested in the Jan 6 attack:
40% Vietnamese (vs. 10% of US Asian pop.)
25% Chinese (vs. 23%)
15% Indian (vs. 23%)
5% Filipino (vs. 16%)
5% Korean (vs. 8%)
5% Taiwanese (vs. 1%)
0% Japanese (vs. 4%)
0% Cambodian, Hmong, Lao (vs. 4%)
US Asian pop. via @aapidata.bsky.social
40% Vietnamese (vs. 10% of US Asian pop.)
25% Chinese (vs. 23%)
15% Indian (vs. 23%)
5% Filipino (vs. 16%)
5% Korean (vs. 8%)
5% Taiwanese (vs. 1%)
0% Japanese (vs. 4%)
0% Cambodian, Hmong, Lao (vs. 4%)
US Asian pop. via @aapidata.bsky.social
March 7, 2025 at 10:31 PM
20 Asian Americans were arrested in the Jan 6 attack:
40% Vietnamese (vs. 10% of US Asian pop.)
25% Chinese (vs. 23%)
15% Indian (vs. 23%)
5% Filipino (vs. 16%)
5% Korean (vs. 8%)
5% Taiwanese (vs. 1%)
0% Japanese (vs. 4%)
0% Cambodian, Hmong, Lao (vs. 4%)
US Asian pop. via @aapidata.bsky.social
40% Vietnamese (vs. 10% of US Asian pop.)
25% Chinese (vs. 23%)
15% Indian (vs. 23%)
5% Filipino (vs. 16%)
5% Korean (vs. 8%)
5% Taiwanese (vs. 1%)
0% Japanese (vs. 4%)
0% Cambodian, Hmong, Lao (vs. 4%)
US Asian pop. via @aapidata.bsky.social
@prripoll.bsky.social report documents a strong correlation between support for Christian Nationalism and (1) state-level Trump 2024 vote share and, (2) disturbingly, agreement that political violence like #January6 may be justified.
www.prri.org/research/chr...
www.prri.org/research/chr...
February 4, 2025 at 10:03 PM
@prripoll.bsky.social report documents a strong correlation between support for Christian Nationalism and (1) state-level Trump 2024 vote share and, (2) disturbingly, agreement that political violence like #January6 may be justified.
www.prri.org/research/chr...
www.prri.org/research/chr...
At some point, those who oppose Trump and the #January6 pardons need to run non-stop on the message that he has pardoned hundreds with other serious criminal convictions, including so many abusers who assault women and children.
Not only morally wrong, but something most voters still agree is wrong.
Not only morally wrong, but something most voters still agree is wrong.
February 4, 2025 at 6:46 PM
At some point, those who oppose Trump and the #January6 pardons need to run non-stop on the message that he has pardoned hundreds with other serious criminal convictions, including so many abusers who assault women and children.
Not only morally wrong, but something most voters still agree is wrong.
Not only morally wrong, but something most voters still agree is wrong.
Brian Driscoll, the acting director of the F.B.I., has become an improbable symbol of quiet resistance toward the Justice Department’s campaign to single out F.B.I. employees who investigated the Jan. 6 riot.
February 4, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Brian Driscoll, the acting director of the F.B.I., has become an improbable symbol of quiet resistance toward the Justice Department’s campaign to single out F.B.I. employees who investigated the Jan. 6 riot.
February 4, 2025 at 5:03 PM
We link to this specific news story as it is one of few to include the crucial context that Hernandez self-destructively drove while intoxicated on *anniversary of J6*: she may have tragically grasped how wrong #January6th attack was.
Her wrestle with the truth that night proved fatal and fateful.
Her wrestle with the truth that night proved fatal and fateful.
January 30, 2025 at 9:37 PM
We link to this specific news story as it is one of few to include the crucial context that Hernandez self-destructively drove while intoxicated on *anniversary of J6*: she may have tragically grasped how wrong #January6th attack was.
Her wrestle with the truth that night proved fatal and fateful.
Her wrestle with the truth that night proved fatal and fateful.
It is likely an order of magnitude (>10X) higher for J6ers, i.e., 40%+ of convicted Jan. 6 defendants sentenced to prison vs. 4% max. of undocumented immigrants. In this study, for example, criminal conviction rate is <2% for unauthorized immigrants in Texas, 2013-2022.
www.cato.org/policy-analy...
www.cato.org/policy-analy...
January 28, 2025 at 3:17 AM
It is likely an order of magnitude (>10X) higher for J6ers, i.e., 40%+ of convicted Jan. 6 defendants sentenced to prison vs. 4% max. of undocumented immigrants. In this study, for example, criminal conviction rate is <2% for unauthorized immigrants in Texas, 2013-2022.
www.cato.org/policy-analy...
www.cato.org/policy-analy...
One stumbling block to prior work on the origins of 1582 #January6 criminal defendants is the use of county of arrest.
Our forthcoming research uses precise census tract location instead. As shown, >50% of defendants did NOT live in the city listed on their arrest warrant (often FBI office city).
Our forthcoming research uses precise census tract location instead. As shown, >50% of defendants did NOT live in the city listed on their arrest warrant (often FBI office city).
January 25, 2025 at 10:48 PM
One stumbling block to prior work on the origins of 1582 #January6 criminal defendants is the use of county of arrest.
Our forthcoming research uses precise census tract location instead. As shown, >50% of defendants did NOT live in the city listed on their arrest warrant (often FBI office city).
Our forthcoming research uses precise census tract location instead. As shown, >50% of defendants did NOT live in the city listed on their arrest warrant (often FBI office city).
Judge Amy Berman Jackson, 23 January 2025. For the record:
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
January 23, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Judge Amy Berman Jackson, 23 January 2025. For the record:
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
"No stroke of a pen and no proclamation can alter the facts of what took place on January 6... When others in the public eye are not willing to risk their own power or popularity by calling out lies when they hear them, the records in this courthouse will be available to those who seek the truth."
January 23, 2025 at 9:10 PM
"No stroke of a pen and no proclamation can alter the facts of what took place on January 6... When others in the public eye are not willing to risk their own power or popularity by calling out lies when they hear them, the records in this courthouse will be available to those who seek the truth."
AND NOW ALSO Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is certainly no stranger to speaking truth to power, dismisses a J6 case *without prejudice*
Hat tip to @sfoguj.bsky.social
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Hat tip to @sfoguj.bsky.social
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
January 22, 2025 at 9:17 PM
AND NOW ALSO Judge Tanya Chutkan, who is certainly no stranger to speaking truth to power, dismisses a J6 case *without prejudice*
Hat tip to @sfoguj.bsky.social
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Hat tip to @sfoguj.bsky.social
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Judge Beryl Howell final orders to dismiss J6 cases, *without* prejudice:
#NicholasDecarlo #Insider1272
#NickOchs #Insider1456
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
#NicholasDecarlo #Insider1272
#NickOchs #Insider1456
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
January 22, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Judge Beryl Howell final orders to dismiss J6 cases, *without* prejudice:
#NicholasDecarlo #Insider1272
#NickOchs #Insider1456
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
#NicholasDecarlo #Insider1272
#NickOchs #Insider1456
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
And now Judge Beryl Howell has devoted four pages to explain granting a motion to dismiss J6 cases, *without* prejudice ("no factual basis," she asserts, for dismissal):
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
January 22, 2025 at 8:52 PM
And now Judge Beryl Howell has devoted four pages to explain granting a motion to dismiss J6 cases, *without* prejudice ("no factual basis," she asserts, for dismissal):
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Judge Kollar-Kotelly (2/2):
videos, transcripts of trials, jury verdicts, and judicial opinions analyzing and recounting the evidence through a neutral lens. Those records are immutable and represent the truth, no matter how the events of January 6 are described by those charged or their allies."
❗
videos, transcripts of trials, jury verdicts, and judicial opinions analyzing and recounting the evidence through a neutral lens. Those records are immutable and represent the truth, no matter how the events of January 6 are described by those charged or their allies."
❗
January 22, 2025 at 6:04 PM
Judge Kollar-Kotelly (2/2):
videos, transcripts of trials, jury verdicts, and judicial opinions analyzing and recounting the evidence through a neutral lens. Those records are immutable and represent the truth, no matter how the events of January 6 are described by those charged or their allies."
❗
videos, transcripts of trials, jury verdicts, and judicial opinions analyzing and recounting the evidence through a neutral lens. Those records are immutable and represent the truth, no matter how the events of January 6 are described by those charged or their allies."
❗