James Allan
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jamesallanatmos.bsky.social
James Allan
@jamesallanatmos.bsky.social
Long haired atmospheric scientist at the University of Manchester and NCAS. Opinions my own.
In situations like that, the AQI is likely to be "many". 😷
October 27, 2025 at 1:50 PM
The study here doesn't use the type of model that can predict acute short term exposure, which is why it's not evaluated, but the overall population health burden from long term exposure alone is quantifiable. (2/2)
October 23, 2025 at 6:52 PM
Just to clear one point up, PM2.5 causes BOTH long term and short term harm. Acute high concentrations do trigger asthma attacks and so on, but sustained long term exposure increases the risk of heat attacks, cancer, strokes, etc. and even small changes in the average make a difference. (1/2)
October 23, 2025 at 6:52 PM
I use images like that from LS Lowry paintings in presentations to show how much Manchester has improved over the years!
October 23, 2025 at 11:42 AM
The big caveat in all of this is that this research isn't peer-reviewed. Furthermore, rather frustratingly, it doesn't even say what model they used to predict the impacts. I'd assume it's either PCM or CMAQ, but if anyone happens to know, I'd be interested. (3/3)
October 23, 2025 at 11:35 AM
This one for me is the most interesting bit. The second panel is what would happen to PM2.5 if people ditched the wood burners and only relied on their primary domestic heat source (usually gas). The numbers don't look huge, but in dense population centres the health impacts can add up. (2/3)
October 23, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Wish I could have been there. Not been to the AAAR in ages, I don't think! My general excuse is that it's at an awkward time of year and is expensive to get to for me.
October 21, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Conflating emissions and ambient concentrations is one of my biggest pet peeves in science reporting, particularly when it comes to PM2.5.
October 21, 2025 at 8:31 AM
Interesting. Always glad to see the data being used!
October 16, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Have you seen this? Not sure if this is reflected in the current inventory (need to check).

uk-air.defra.gov.uk/library/repo...
Report: Emission Factors for Domestic Solid Fuels Project - Work Package 3 Report - DEFRA UK Air - GOV.UK
uk-air.defra.gov.uk
October 16, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Another example of this in air pollution was the implementation of the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) in parts of the UK. Replacing fossil fuels with biomass is one thing, but if farmers earn money for heating buildings that don't need heating in the first place, something has gone wrong. (6/6)
October 16, 2025 at 10:33 AM
This is an example of a 'perverse incentive' in economics, where an incentive inadvertently creates the opposite of the desired effect. The historical example I use in my lectures is the 'Hanoi Rat Massacre', which is worth checking out. (5/6)

www.atlasobscura.com/articles/han...
The Great Hanoi Rat Massacre of 1902 Did Not Go as Planned
Instead of disappearing, the pesky rodents proliferated.
www.atlasobscura.com
October 16, 2025 at 10:33 AM
The data has shown that the PHEV users who drove the most on ICE were the business users, many of whom had bought them for the tax breaks, not because the fuel economy suited their usage. The end result in those cases was the tax break caused more CO2e (and other pollutants), not less. (4/6)
October 16, 2025 at 10:33 AM
The utility factors are now being revised in the Euro 6e standards, in turn meaning they will be treated less favourably in taxation. So hear me out when I say this now represents something of a self-own, regulation-wise. (3/6)

www.mphvehiclesolutions.co.uk/news/new-eur...
Euro 6e-Bis - How will it effect PHEV vehicles
How the new Euro 6e-Bis changes will effect drivers of PHEV vehicles. With possible BIK tax increases sue to higher CO2 emissions.
www.mphvehiclesolutions.co.uk
October 16, 2025 at 10:33 AM
The 'utility factor' issue has been known to regulators for a long time. They originally assumed a certain amount of driving on electric when they estimated CO2e emissions from PHEVs, but vehicle telemetry collected since has indicated this was an optimistic estimate. (2/6)
October 16, 2025 at 10:33 AM