Jake Grossman
jakegrossman.bsky.social
Jake Grossman
@jakegrossman.bsky.social
Michigan Law '25 | Director of Analytics at Guaynabo Mets | I like talking about football analytics and contracts
Data from NFLfastR

(Touchbacks w/ penalties and kickoffs w/ less than 1 minute remaining in the half were excluded for purposes of this analysis)
November 20, 2024 at 8:32 PM
Here is a look at expected points from each yardline with a larger sample size than just this season:
November 20, 2024 at 8:32 PM
Avg. Expected Points (EP) at start of drive:

Return from 11-20: 1.45
Touchback: 1.45
Return from 6-10: 1.34
Return from 1-5: 1.31
Return from Endzone: 1.17
Rolling Touchback: 0.83
November 20, 2024 at 8:32 PM
League-wide return rate throughout the season:
November 20, 2024 at 3:01 PM