Jake Dibden
@jakedibden.bsky.social
Public opinion researcher at More in Common and MSc Political Sociology candidate. Oxford '21-'24, LSE '24-'25.
Obviously as we don't know the exact shape of the changes yet these are rough estimates, assuming that the new electorate will closely reflect the 16+ population. The comparison is based on the distribution you'd expect given electors reported in 2024.
August 4, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Obviously as we don't know the exact shape of the changes yet these are rough estimates, assuming that the new electorate will closely reflect the 16+ population. The comparison is based on the distribution you'd expect given electors reported in 2024.
Top beneficiaries (biggest % change in number of seats):
C'bridge (+23%)
Lincoln (+22%)
N'castle (+20%)
W'minster (+20%)
Oxford (+19%)
Top losers (biggest % change in number of seats):
Staffs Moorlands (-10%)
Melton (-10%)
High Peak (-10%)
Derbs Dales (-9%)
New Forest (-9%)
C'bridge (+23%)
Lincoln (+22%)
N'castle (+20%)
W'minster (+20%)
Oxford (+19%)
Top losers (biggest % change in number of seats):
Staffs Moorlands (-10%)
Melton (-10%)
High Peak (-10%)
Derbs Dales (-9%)
New Forest (-9%)
August 4, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Top beneficiaries (biggest % change in number of seats):
C'bridge (+23%)
Lincoln (+22%)
N'castle (+20%)
W'minster (+20%)
Oxford (+19%)
Top losers (biggest % change in number of seats):
Staffs Moorlands (-10%)
Melton (-10%)
High Peak (-10%)
Derbs Dales (-9%)
New Forest (-9%)
C'bridge (+23%)
Lincoln (+22%)
N'castle (+20%)
W'minster (+20%)
Oxford (+19%)
Top losers (biggest % change in number of seats):
Staffs Moorlands (-10%)
Melton (-10%)
High Peak (-10%)
Derbs Dales (-9%)
New Forest (-9%)
Top beneficiaries (outright number of seats):
B'ham (+0.55)
N'castle (+0.51)
L'pool (+0.42)
N'ham (+0.42)
Tower Hams (+0.40)
Top losers (outright number of seats):
N Yorks (-0.33)
Somerset (-0.32)
Bucks (-0.23)
Cheshire E. (-0.19)
Cornwall (-0.18)
B'ham (+0.55)
N'castle (+0.51)
L'pool (+0.42)
N'ham (+0.42)
Tower Hams (+0.40)
Top losers (outright number of seats):
N Yorks (-0.33)
Somerset (-0.32)
Bucks (-0.23)
Cheshire E. (-0.19)
Cornwall (-0.18)
August 4, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Top beneficiaries (outright number of seats):
B'ham (+0.55)
N'castle (+0.51)
L'pool (+0.42)
N'ham (+0.42)
Tower Hams (+0.40)
Top losers (outright number of seats):
N Yorks (-0.33)
Somerset (-0.32)
Bucks (-0.23)
Cheshire E. (-0.19)
Cornwall (-0.18)
B'ham (+0.55)
N'castle (+0.51)
L'pool (+0.42)
N'ham (+0.42)
Tower Hams (+0.40)
Top losers (outright number of seats):
N Yorks (-0.33)
Somerset (-0.32)
Bucks (-0.23)
Cheshire E. (-0.19)
Cornwall (-0.18)
Their disproportionate presence online, especially their use of social media as a political forum, could mean that SSs combine the more progressive sensibilities of a younger audience, with the fact that they have (for most of their lives) had an almost unrestricted right to broadcast their speech.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Their disproportionate presence online, especially their use of social media as a political forum, could mean that SSs combine the more progressive sensibilities of a younger audience, with the fact that they have (for most of their lives) had an almost unrestricted right to broadcast their speech.
They are the second most likely to post about politics online, and are the most likely segment to post at least most days on TikTok, Youtube, Instagram, Reddit, and Bluesky.
They are also the most likely to use TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, and Bluesky.
They are also the most likely to use TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, and Bluesky.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
They are the second most likely to post about politics online, and are the most likely segment to post at least most days on TikTok, Youtube, Instagram, Reddit, and Bluesky.
They are also the most likely to use TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, and Bluesky.
They are also the most likely to use TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat, and Bluesky.
Sceptical Scrollers are closest to the avg. Briton on these issues, being slightly more absolutist and more PC. These views could be the product of the fact that SSs are younger, and so their views are increasingly the product of their experiences online.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Sceptical Scrollers are closest to the avg. Briton on these issues, being slightly more absolutist and more PC. These views could be the product of the fact that SSs are younger, and so their views are increasingly the product of their experiences online.
Rooted Patriots share some attitudes of TCs. Patronised by changing standards of speech but also disliking language they perceive to be rude or disrespectful, including offensive speech, RPs have a high level of threat perception, and see hate speech as a danger to be protected from.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Rooted Patriots share some attitudes of TCs. Patronised by changing standards of speech but also disliking language they perceive to be rude or disrespectful, including offensive speech, RPs have a high level of threat perception, and see hate speech as a danger to be protected from.
It strikes me that any groups wanting to "win the argument" on freedom of speech may be particularly interested in these groups. This appears to be where the most nuance lies, and the larger centre-ground of free speech issues.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
It strikes me that any groups wanting to "win the argument" on freedom of speech may be particularly interested in these groups. This appears to be where the most nuance lies, and the larger centre-ground of free speech issues.
Two groups defy the stereotypical combination of views on freedom of speech and political correctness outlined above. Sceptical Scrollers (compared to the avg. Briton more absolutist and more politically correct), and Rooted Patriots (who are the MOST restrictionist group, and less PC than avg.).
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Two groups defy the stereotypical combination of views on freedom of speech and political correctness outlined above. Sceptical Scrollers (compared to the avg. Briton more absolutist and more politically correct), and Rooted Patriots (who are the MOST restrictionist group, and less PC than avg.).
Sharing similar but more moderate views are Traditional Conservatives. TCs often feel that restrictions on free speech and changes in "acceptable" language are patronising and unnecessary. They feel that PC is restricting their ability to raise concerns about things like immigration and integration.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Sharing similar but more moderate views are Traditional Conservatives. TCs often feel that restrictions on free speech and changes in "acceptable" language are patronising and unnecessary. They feel that PC is restricting their ability to raise concerns about things like immigration and integration.
At the far opposite end of the spectrum you have the Dissenting Disruptors, who are free speech absolutists and are strongly opposed to political correctness. DDs feel that traditional British culture is under attack, and they see this in the regulation of speech as well...
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
At the far opposite end of the spectrum you have the Dissenting Disruptors, who are free speech absolutists and are strongly opposed to political correctness. DDs feel that traditional British culture is under attack, and they see this in the regulation of speech as well...
Progressive Activists are roughly as likely to support restrictions freedom of speech as Established Liberals and the Incrementalist Left. Though ELs and ILs are less supportive of political correctness than PAs, they have more positive views of political correctness than the public as a whole.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Progressive Activists are roughly as likely to support restrictions freedom of speech as Established Liberals and the Incrementalist Left. Though ELs and ILs are less supportive of political correctness than PAs, they have more positive views of political correctness than the public as a whole.
They believe they support freedom of speech, but oppose offensive speech. In this way they see what others might call "cancel culture" as a feature, not a bug, of a well functioning culture of free speech, and believe that individuals should be accountable for how they choose to use this freedom.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
They believe they support freedom of speech, but oppose offensive speech. In this way they see what others might call "cancel culture" as a feature, not a bug, of a well functioning culture of free speech, and believe that individuals should be accountable for how they choose to use this freedom.
Progressive Activists are (unsurprisingly) among the groups most likely to support restricting freedom of speech than the public as a whole, and the most supportive of political correctness.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Progressive Activists are (unsurprisingly) among the groups most likely to support restricting freedom of speech than the public as a whole, and the most supportive of political correctness.
Within More in Common's 7 segments (see here www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/res...), three segments hold more restrictionist, politically correct views than the public as a whole, two hold more absolutist, anti-political correctness views, with the other two a combination of each.
Shattered Britain
This report - drawing on polling of over 20,000 people and dozens of focus groups around the country explores what is driving this sense of malaise, and how Britons see the path out of it. It explores...
www.moreincommon.org.uk
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
Within More in Common's 7 segments (see here www.moreincommon.org.uk/our-work/res...), three segments hold more restrictionist, politically correct views than the public as a whole, two hold more absolutist, anti-political correctness views, with the other two a combination of each.
3 in 5 Britons hold restrictionist views on freedom of speech; 59% believe that protecting people from dangerous and hateful speech is more important than protecting the freedom to express controversial or offensive views.
Despite this, almost 2 in 3 believe that political correctness is a problem.
Despite this, almost 2 in 3 believe that political correctness is a problem.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
3 in 5 Britons hold restrictionist views on freedom of speech; 59% believe that protecting people from dangerous and hateful speech is more important than protecting the freedom to express controversial or offensive views.
Despite this, almost 2 in 3 believe that political correctness is a problem.
Despite this, almost 2 in 3 believe that political correctness is a problem.
The lazy stereotypes of the "gammon" absolutist and the "snowflake" restrictionist have been really harmful for the debate around freedom of speech, leaving people feeling patronised, and even scared of addressing issues which are real problems in their community.
July 21, 2025 at 11:19 AM
The lazy stereotypes of the "gammon" absolutist and the "snowflake" restrictionist have been really harmful for the debate around freedom of speech, leaving people feeling patronised, and even scared of addressing issues which are real problems in their community.
Tl:dr, RUK have no peers in the HoL, interesting to see if Labour drop this from legislative agenda, could breathe some life into Tories in the event of a coalition, could push HoL reform up the public agenda.
July 18, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Tl:dr, RUK have no peers in the HoL, interesting to see if Labour drop this from legislative agenda, could breathe some life into Tories in the event of a coalition, could push HoL reform up the public agenda.
But there is the possibility that the strength of every party but RUK in the Lords leads this to conveniently fall off of Labour's to-do list (especially as they appear to be thinking strategically about electoral reform). It could also hasten a hypothetical PM Farage into radical changes early on.
July 18, 2025 at 7:38 PM
But there is the possibility that the strength of every party but RUK in the Lords leads this to conveniently fall off of Labour's to-do list (especially as they appear to be thinking strategically about electoral reform). It could also hasten a hypothetical PM Farage into radical changes early on.
A process which would likely take years, or even parliaments, without rapid and radical changes to the Lords. Obviously Lords reform was in both Labour and Reform's manifestoes and the King's Speech, and you cannot rule out wildcards from either party ...
July 18, 2025 at 7:38 PM
A process which would likely take years, or even parliaments, without rapid and radical changes to the Lords. Obviously Lords reform was in both Labour and Reform's manifestoes and the King's Speech, and you cannot rule out wildcards from either party ...
In case of a Reform majority it makes for a lively but probably symbolic opposition given the Parliament Act, but in the event of a Con-Ref or Ref-Con coalition, it really puts a lot of influence behind the Tories as coalition partners until Reform can appoint enough of its own peers ...
July 18, 2025 at 7:38 PM
In case of a Reform majority it makes for a lively but probably symbolic opposition given the Parliament Act, but in the event of a Con-Ref or Ref-Con coalition, it really puts a lot of influence behind the Tories as coalition partners until Reform can appoint enough of its own peers ...