Very pleased to release our paper with colleagues at the BIS in Basle. Sadly Philip Turner died last year and this paper honours him. Short thread follows. 1/n

www.econ.cam.ac.uk/publications...

The excitement over ONS February's estimate of monthly GDP is misplaced. The estimate is based on output data only. If we look at the components of the production sector since 2022, I would not get out any bunting. (Obs services and construction matter are also counted.)

The US current account deficit results from an excess of investment over savings - trade frictions play a relatively minor role. This is because of impatient consumers, fiscal deficits and the availability of international funds. The Metzler diagram from my book, The Money Minders, Chapter 5. 1/n

As we enter a potential #tariff war, I am reminded of my #StudiumGenerale @Unimarburg.bsky.social in 2010. Trade can collapse quickly and with it, income and productivity. Time to worry....

Central banking will continue to dominate much of the agenda. If you want to understand some of the principles that underpin and explain thinking. My book will help.