jacksonarkland.bsky.social
@jacksonarkland.bsky.social
Also, on very rough timeline, if a large merger takes 6-12 months, this would imply that M&A is going to get really hot in in Q1 and maybe early Q2 if companies merging want to get the merger done before Dems possibly take the house back in January, right?
December 19, 2025 at 3:35 PM
Also, on very rough timeline, if a large merger takes 6-12 months, this would imply that M&A is going to get really hot in in Q1 and maybe early Q2 if companies merging want to get the merger done before Dems possibly take the house back in January, right?
Not disagreeing, but not following the logic on how Dems taking back the House impacts M&A/deal making. Outside of the ability to hold a hearing about some proposed merger, what power does control of the House give dems to block or influence mergers?
December 19, 2025 at 3:31 PM
Not disagreeing, but not following the logic on how Dems taking back the House impacts M&A/deal making. Outside of the ability to hold a hearing about some proposed merger, what power does control of the House give dems to block or influence mergers?
If they win, they should get a bye in the first round, right? And if they lose they almost certainly will not get a bye. Getting to automatically pass through the first round of the playoffs seems pretty important to me.
December 6, 2025 at 10:47 PM
If they win, they should get a bye in the first round, right? And if they lose they almost certainly will not get a bye. Getting to automatically pass through the first round of the playoffs seems pretty important to me.
Sam Altman (and by extension, Open AI) definitely pivoted towards being open to Trump, but I don’t recall Dario or Anthropic ever publicly embracing Trump. I do wonder if Altman’s statement were sincere or if he was trying to avoid retribution for his past criticisms of Trump to protect Open AI.
December 4, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Sam Altman (and by extension, Open AI) definitely pivoted towards being open to Trump, but I don’t recall Dario or Anthropic ever publicly embracing Trump. I do wonder if Altman’s statement were sincere or if he was trying to avoid retribution for his past criticisms of Trump to protect Open AI.
I think the chart is just saying the cash flow from these huge companies (Amazon, Google, Facebook, Oracle, etc.) is anticipated to slightly exceed the anticipated capex (presumable largely related to AI).
November 25, 2025 at 11:03 AM
I think the chart is just saying the cash flow from these huge companies (Amazon, Google, Facebook, Oracle, etc.) is anticipated to slightly exceed the anticipated capex (presumable largely related to AI).
Obviously Newsom was/is connected to some very powerful families in the Bay Area and there’s no question that played a major role in his CA elections, but I’d be really surprised if the Democratic establishment consolidates early behind him. I think he’ll be controversial among Democratic elites.
November 16, 2025 at 2:41 PM
Obviously Newsom was/is connected to some very powerful families in the Bay Area and there’s no question that played a major role in his CA elections, but I’d be really surprised if the Democratic establishment consolidates early behind him. I think he’ll be controversial among Democratic elites.
This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but the two comps that come to mind for me are Bill Clinton and Trump. All three had very well know serious personal red flags and were also dismissed by many serious analysts as being the political equivalent of used car salesmen.
November 16, 2025 at 2:19 PM
This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but the two comps that come to mind for me are Bill Clinton and Trump. All three had very well know serious personal red flags and were also dismissed by many serious analysts as being the political equivalent of used car salesmen.
Not to be a total Bluesky stereotype, but did he say anything about ACA and prices going way up? Seems like he might not have employer-sponsored healthcare and would probably be eligible for ACA subsidies.
November 14, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Not to be a total Bluesky stereotype, but did he say anything about ACA and prices going way up? Seems like he might not have employer-sponsored healthcare and would probably be eligible for ACA subsidies.
I’m confused. Less than $10k per year seems like a screaming good deal to me. It’s private school that has gotten out-of-reach for upper-middle class families. Are you saying that privates are unlikely to get bailed out because of resentment related to their unobtainable costs?
November 7, 2025 at 4:27 PM
I’m confused. Less than $10k per year seems like a screaming good deal to me. It’s private school that has gotten out-of-reach for upper-middle class families. Are you saying that privates are unlikely to get bailed out because of resentment related to their unobtainable costs?
Dividends/interest on a million is like $40 or $50k a year. It’s certainly real money, but particularly if you have a family to support, you have to live extremely frugal to retire.
October 12, 2025 at 4:51 AM
Dividends/interest on a million is like $40 or $50k a year. It’s certainly real money, but particularly if you have a family to support, you have to live extremely frugal to retire.
I second the Venture X. The travel credit basically offsets the annual fee and the 2 miles for every dollar is really simple, plus the 75k mile sign up bonus is decent. Way easier to ensure that you aren’t losing money on the annual fee than with the AmEx and Chase Sapphire coupon books imho.
September 18, 2025 at 9:44 PM
I second the Venture X. The travel credit basically offsets the annual fee and the 2 miles for every dollar is really simple, plus the 75k mile sign up bonus is decent. Way easier to ensure that you aren’t losing money on the annual fee than with the AmEx and Chase Sapphire coupon books imho.
Also, these cards (along with many other loyalty programs) often start out as a fairly compelling value proposition, but then quickly get devalued with rule changes and I assume they are just banking that a significant % of people won’t bother to drop out and will keep paying the annual fee.
September 18, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Also, these cards (along with many other loyalty programs) often start out as a fairly compelling value proposition, but then quickly get devalued with rule changes and I assume they are just banking that a significant % of people won’t bother to drop out and will keep paying the annual fee.
For the people that are (hopefully) not annoying or intentionally adversarial, is there anything we can do? I’m guessing this is not a thing you “win” in the replies.
September 14, 2025 at 4:11 AM
For the people that are (hopefully) not annoying or intentionally adversarial, is there anything we can do? I’m guessing this is not a thing you “win” in the replies.
When I worked at Publix in high school (more than 25 years ago), managers definitely said produce and the bakery didn’t make money. I never saw financials to know if it was true or not.
September 11, 2025 at 8:50 PM
When I worked at Publix in high school (more than 25 years ago), managers definitely said produce and the bakery didn’t make money. I never saw financials to know if it was true or not.
At least until 2032!
August 18, 2025 at 12:53 AM
At least until 2032!
My oldest is only 8 and at the younger ages I don’t think most kids even appreciate or understand the extravagance. The part that gave me pause from the kids perspective was when they got like 30 presents. I personally don’t think that is probably good for most kids development.
August 18, 2025 at 12:48 AM
My oldest is only 8 and at the younger ages I don’t think most kids even appreciate or understand the extravagance. The part that gave me pause from the kids perspective was when they got like 30 presents. I personally don’t think that is probably good for most kids development.
And to be fair, I’ve thrown a few stupidly expensive birthday parties for my kids. But it was definitely more about making my significant other happy than my young kids.
August 18, 2025 at 12:32 AM
And to be fair, I’ve thrown a few stupidly expensive birthday parties for my kids. But it was definitely more about making my significant other happy than my young kids.
Expensive kids birthday parties are kind of like expensive private schools—it’s just as much about how it makes the parents feel as how it makes the kids feel (if not more so).
August 18, 2025 at 12:28 AM
Expensive kids birthday parties are kind of like expensive private schools—it’s just as much about how it makes the parents feel as how it makes the kids feel (if not more so).
Probably way late to this, but I wonder if the survey data is undercounting young Republicans that drink in the same way that many political race polls undercounted similar Republican voters? Are alcohol company stocks showing declining sales that would be consistent with these significant drops?
August 13, 2025 at 11:01 PM
Probably way late to this, but I wonder if the survey data is undercounting young Republicans that drink in the same way that many political race polls undercounted similar Republican voters? Are alcohol company stocks showing declining sales that would be consistent with these significant drops?
I wonder how much the perception was driven by the overall trend in violent crime? Just quickly glancing, violent crime rates seemed to climb rapidly in the 70 and 80s, and then started a significant decline in the 90s. In 91 homicide rate was 9.8 per 100k and fell to 6.3k per 100k in 98.
July 31, 2025 at 5:27 PM
I wonder how much the perception was driven by the overall trend in violent crime? Just quickly glancing, violent crime rates seemed to climb rapidly in the 70 and 80s, and then started a significant decline in the 90s. In 91 homicide rate was 9.8 per 100k and fell to 6.3k per 100k in 98.
The combination of a handheld device with touch interface and short form content that can easily be skipped is, by far, the most problematic. The dopamine hit from watching something for like 30 seconds and tapping to something else and doing it over and over again is extremely addictive.
July 6, 2025 at 6:24 AM
The combination of a handheld device with touch interface and short form content that can easily be skipped is, by far, the most problematic. The dopamine hit from watching something for like 30 seconds and tapping to something else and doing it over and over again is extremely addictive.
To expand on this, my smart, curious 8 year old has access to Nintendo and essentially everything Disney has ever made, and would watch YouTube for 10 hours straight if I let her. The content itself is not really that objectionable, it’s just extremely stupid and, more importantly, addictive.
July 6, 2025 at 6:17 AM
To expand on this, my smart, curious 8 year old has access to Nintendo and essentially everything Disney has ever made, and would watch YouTube for 10 hours straight if I let her. The content itself is not really that objectionable, it’s just extremely stupid and, more importantly, addictive.
100%. Although it’s not without its own issues (e.g. fighting over the game), Nintendo is a downright social activity relative to the iPad and YouTube Kids in particular. Anyone that I talk to that is a new parent, the best advice I can give is don’t give your kids an iPad or YouTube.
July 6, 2025 at 6:05 AM
100%. Although it’s not without its own issues (e.g. fighting over the game), Nintendo is a downright social activity relative to the iPad and YouTube Kids in particular. Anyone that I talk to that is a new parent, the best advice I can give is don’t give your kids an iPad or YouTube.
Lol…I’m 45 and got one yesterday from Captain Welker.
June 11, 2025 at 4:39 PM
Lol…I’m 45 and got one yesterday from Captain Welker.
I’ve messed around with cooking and been disappointed. I asked it how to cook rack of lamb just to see how different it would be from the recipe I was using and it gave me a lamb chop recipe, but it never mentioned slicing the racking into chops. It seems like it should ask more questions.
June 9, 2025 at 12:46 AM
I’ve messed around with cooking and been disappointed. I asked it how to cook rack of lamb just to see how different it would be from the recipe I was using and it gave me a lamb chop recipe, but it never mentioned slicing the racking into chops. It seems like it should ask more questions.