Jack Russell
@jackru.bsky.social
Londoner in Norn Iron | Dad of girls | Data Communicator | Inclusive Education Activist | Glastonbury Pilgrim | Gödelian Strange Loop | Runner | ENTP | bit.ly/PfIE
Here are the net movements due to defections and expulsions (loss of whip) over the same period:
LAB: 162↘ ↗11 (-151)
CON: 158↘ ↗18 (-140)
IND: 66↘ ↗291 (+225)
LOC: 40↘ ↗21 (-19)
RFM: 29↘ ↗101 (+72)
LDM: 21↘ ↗17 (-4)
GRN: 8↘ ↗29 (+21)
SNP: 4↘ ↗0 (-4)
LAB: 162↘ ↗11 (-151)
CON: 158↘ ↗18 (-140)
IND: 66↘ ↗291 (+225)
LOC: 40↘ ↗21 (-19)
RFM: 29↘ ↗101 (+72)
LDM: 21↘ ↗17 (-4)
GRN: 8↘ ↗29 (+21)
SNP: 4↘ ↗0 (-4)
November 14, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Here are the net movements due to defections and expulsions (loss of whip) over the same period:
LAB: 162↘ ↗11 (-151)
CON: 158↘ ↗18 (-140)
IND: 66↘ ↗291 (+225)
LOC: 40↘ ↗21 (-19)
RFM: 29↘ ↗101 (+72)
LDM: 21↘ ↗17 (-4)
GRN: 8↘ ↗29 (+21)
SNP: 4↘ ↗0 (-4)
LAB: 162↘ ↗11 (-151)
CON: 158↘ ↗18 (-140)
IND: 66↘ ↗291 (+225)
LOC: 40↘ ↗21 (-19)
RFM: 29↘ ↗101 (+72)
LDM: 21↘ ↗17 (-4)
GRN: 8↘ ↗29 (+21)
SNP: 4↘ ↗0 (-4)
Defections since Local Elections in May this year (to 31st Oct):
LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
November 6, 2025 at 10:26 AM
Defections since Local Elections in May this year (to 31st Oct):
LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
If these successful defense percentages are exactly replicated in the 2026 local elections (and transfers between parties are also replicated), the net movement in seats will be as shown in the table below:
October 31, 2025 at 12:43 PM
If these successful defense percentages are exactly replicated in the 2026 local elections (and transfers between parties are also replicated), the net movement in seats will be as shown in the table below:
Here are the net movements due to defections and expulsions (loss of whip) over the same period:
LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
October 31, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Here are the net movements due to defections and expulsions (loss of whip) over the same period:
LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
LAB: 153↘ ↗11 (-142)
CON: 147↘ ↗17 (-130)
IND: 61↘ ↗278 (+217)
LOC: 38↘ ↗21 (-17)
RFM: 27↘ ↗94 (+67)
LDM: 20↘ ↗14 (-6)
GRN: 8↘ ↗22 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
Bluesky just hit 40,000,000 accounts! Congratulations to @jay.bsky.team and all the team. There's never been a better time to leave X...
October 31, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Bluesky just hit 40,000,000 accounts! Congratulations to @jay.bsky.team and all the team. There's never been a better time to leave X...
A line chart paints a thousand words 💚
October 30, 2025 at 5:55 PM
A line chart paints a thousand words 💚
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking into account all defections and by-elections since LE2025 and now updated with results from Lib Dem "super-Thursday" last week 😂.
Model assumptions in comment below.
Model assumptions in comment below.
October 18, 2025 at 12:46 PM
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking into account all defections and by-elections since LE2025 and now updated with results from Lib Dem "super-Thursday" last week 😂.
Model assumptions in comment below.
Model assumptions in comment below.
And defections (or losses of whip) over the same period:
CON: 142↘ ↗14 (-128)
LAB: 140↘ ↗11 (-129)
IND: 58↘ ↗254 (+196)
LOC: 38↘ ↗16 (-22)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 18↘ ↗94 (+76)
GRN: 5↘ ↗19 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
Pretty much neck & neck between LAB and CON.
CON: 142↘ ↗14 (-128)
LAB: 140↘ ↗11 (-129)
IND: 58↘ ↗254 (+196)
LOC: 38↘ ↗16 (-22)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 18↘ ↗94 (+76)
GRN: 5↘ ↗19 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
Pretty much neck & neck between LAB and CON.
October 17, 2025 at 11:56 AM
And defections (or losses of whip) over the same period:
CON: 142↘ ↗14 (-128)
LAB: 140↘ ↗11 (-129)
IND: 58↘ ↗254 (+196)
LOC: 38↘ ↗16 (-22)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 18↘ ↗94 (+76)
GRN: 5↘ ↗19 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
Pretty much neck & neck between LAB and CON.
CON: 142↘ ↗14 (-128)
LAB: 140↘ ↗11 (-129)
IND: 58↘ ↗254 (+196)
LOC: 38↘ ↗16 (-22)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 18↘ ↗94 (+76)
GRN: 5↘ ↗19 (+14)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
Pretty much neck & neck between LAB and CON.
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking onto account all defections and by-elections since LE2025. NB: this is a projection, not a prediction (high-level assumptions in comment below). If I was to hazard a guess at where it will be wrong, I think Green gains will be higher, Reform lower.
October 11, 2025 at 3:16 PM
Latest local election 2026 seat projection, taking onto account all defections and by-elections since LE2025. NB: this is a projection, not a prediction (high-level assumptions in comment below). If I was to hazard a guess at where it will be wrong, I think Green gains will be higher, Reform lower.
And inter-party movements due to defections / loss of whip over the same period:
CON: 138↘ ↗14 (-124)
LAB: 132↘ ↗11 (-121)
IND: 47↘ ↗244 (+197)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 15↘ ↗87 (+72)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
CON: 138↘ ↗14 (-124)
LAB: 132↘ ↗11 (-121)
IND: 47↘ ↗244 (+197)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 15↘ ↗87 (+72)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
October 10, 2025 at 10:42 AM
And inter-party movements due to defections / loss of whip over the same period:
CON: 138↘ ↗14 (-124)
LAB: 132↘ ↗11 (-121)
IND: 47↘ ↗244 (+197)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 15↘ ↗87 (+72)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
CON: 138↘ ↗14 (-124)
LAB: 132↘ ↗11 (-121)
IND: 47↘ ↗244 (+197)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 15↘ ↗87 (+72)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
Can you apply the effective party metric to seat shares (or councillor shares) as opposed to vote share? If so, this number tallies well with the current effective number of parties across local government (5.2). And my simple projection see this rising to 6.4 after LE2026:
October 9, 2025 at 1:09 PM
Can you apply the effective party metric to seat shares (or councillor shares) as opposed to vote share? If so, this number tallies well with the current effective number of parties across local government (5.2). And my simple projection see this rising to 6.4 after LE2026:
I've updated my Local Election 2026 projection to reflect the CON -> RFM defections today. It's a very basic model which makes some pretty big assumptions (mainly that byelection results will be representative of LE2026). Effective number of parties = 6.4 🤯
October 7, 2025 at 4:25 PM
I've updated my Local Election 2026 projection to reflect the CON -> RFM defections today. It's a very basic model which makes some pretty big assumptions (mainly that byelection results will be representative of LE2026). Effective number of parties = 6.4 🤯
The Tories' 21 defections to Reform so far today have now put them ahead of Labour on total defections since LE2025:
CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
October 7, 2025 at 1:00 PM
The Tories' 21 defections to Reform so far today have now put them ahead of Labour on total defections since LE2025:
CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
CON: 134↘ ↗12 (-122)
LAB: 130↘ ↗11 (-119)
IND: 45↘ ↗239 (+194)
LOC: 34↘ ↗6 (-28)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗85 (+71)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
And movement between parties (or independent designation) due to defections / losses of whip over the same period:
LAB: 126↘ ↗11 (-115)
CON: 111↘ ↗12 (-99)
IND: 44↘ ↗234 (+190)
LOC: 34↘ ↗5 (-29)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗63 (+49)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
LAB: 126↘ ↗11 (-115)
CON: 111↘ ↗12 (-99)
IND: 44↘ ↗234 (+190)
LOC: 34↘ ↗5 (-29)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗63 (+49)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
October 3, 2025 at 1:51 PM
And movement between parties (or independent designation) due to defections / losses of whip over the same period:
LAB: 126↘ ↗11 (-115)
CON: 111↘ ↗12 (-99)
IND: 44↘ ↗234 (+190)
LOC: 34↘ ↗5 (-29)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗63 (+49)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
LAB: 126↘ ↗11 (-115)
CON: 111↘ ↗12 (-99)
IND: 44↘ ↗234 (+190)
LOC: 34↘ ↗5 (-29)
LDM: 18↘ ↗14 (-4)
RFM: 14↘ ↗63 (+49)
GRN: 5↘ ↗16 (+11)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
If by-election and defection trends continue into the next set of local elections, you'll also have nearly 1,200 local councillors in 221 days' time.
September 28, 2025 at 4:29 PM
If by-election and defection trends continue into the next set of local elections, you'll also have nearly 1,200 local councillors in 221 days' time.
Also, if current trends continue, Labour will be on course to lose almost 200 local councillors between now and the next set of local elections, and a further 1,300 at those elections themselves.
September 28, 2025 at 9:00 AM
Also, if current trends continue, Labour will be on course to lose almost 200 local councillors between now and the next set of local elections, and a further 1,300 at those elections themselves.
The chart below is a visual summary of what LE2026 seat movements would look like under this model.
🚨 To repeat, this is a projection, not a prediction, based on quite thin data (110 by-elections so far since May). But it should set some alarm bells ringing.
🚨 To repeat, this is a projection, not a prediction, based on quite thin data (110 by-elections so far since May). But it should set some alarm bells ringing.
September 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
The chart below is a visual summary of what LE2026 seat movements would look like under this model.
🚨 To repeat, this is a projection, not a prediction, based on quite thin data (110 by-elections so far since May). But it should set some alarm bells ringing.
🚨 To repeat, this is a projection, not a prediction, based on quite thin data (110 by-elections so far since May). But it should set some alarm bells ringing.
🚨Local Election 2026 Projection 🚨
While the next general election could be over 3 years away, the next set of locals are in just 222 days’ time.
Based on local by-elections & defections since May, I have made a projection of their likely outcome (methodology & caveats in a 🧵 below).
While the next general election could be over 3 years away, the next set of locals are in just 222 days’ time.
Based on local by-elections & defections since May, I have made a projection of their likely outcome (methodology & caveats in a 🧵 below).
September 27, 2025 at 3:29 PM
🚨Local Election 2026 Projection 🚨
While the next general election could be over 3 years away, the next set of locals are in just 222 days’ time.
Based on local by-elections & defections since May, I have made a projection of their likely outcome (methodology & caveats in a 🧵 below).
While the next general election could be over 3 years away, the next set of locals are in just 222 days’ time.
Based on local by-elections & defections since May, I have made a projection of their likely outcome (methodology & caveats in a 🧵 below).
I agree. Incidentally I have just put together a chart of local councillor defections since the local elections in May. In addition to big name MP and ex-MP defections, 36 Tory local councillors have jumped ship to Reform since then.
September 26, 2025 at 3:46 PM
I agree. Incidentally I have just put together a chart of local councillor defections since the local elections in May. In addition to big name MP and ex-MP defections, 36 Tory local councillors have jumped ship to Reform since then.
Here are the net movements due to defections over the same period:
LAB: 121↘ ↗11 (-110)
CON: 108↘ ↗11 (-97)
IND: 42↘ ↗222 (+180)
LOC: 32↘ ↗5 (-27)
LDM: 17↘ ↗13 (-4)
RFM: 11↘ ↗62 (+51)
GRN: 5↘ ↗15 (+10)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
LAB: 121↘ ↗11 (-110)
CON: 108↘ ↗11 (-97)
IND: 42↘ ↗222 (+180)
LOC: 32↘ ↗5 (-27)
LDM: 17↘ ↗13 (-4)
RFM: 11↘ ↗62 (+51)
GRN: 5↘ ↗15 (+10)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
September 26, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Here are the net movements due to defections over the same period:
LAB: 121↘ ↗11 (-110)
CON: 108↘ ↗11 (-97)
IND: 42↘ ↗222 (+180)
LOC: 32↘ ↗5 (-27)
LDM: 17↘ ↗13 (-4)
RFM: 11↘ ↗62 (+51)
GRN: 5↘ ↗15 (+10)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
LAB: 121↘ ↗11 (-110)
CON: 108↘ ↗11 (-97)
IND: 42↘ ↗222 (+180)
LOC: 32↘ ↗5 (-27)
LDM: 17↘ ↗13 (-4)
RFM: 11↘ ↗62 (+51)
GRN: 5↘ ↗15 (+10)
SNP: 3↘ ↗0 (-3)
Now updated to remove double defections - normally those e.g. moving CON -> IND, then IND -> RFM a few days later. This chart now shows net movement.
September 20, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Now updated to remove double defections - normally those e.g. moving CON -> IND, then IND -> RFM a few days later. This chart now shows net movement.
I've made a chart showing defections over the same time period. The first number here is the total defections in each party's favour. The net movement is in brackets:
IND: 229 (+172)
RFM: 64 (+54)
GRN: 15 (+10)
LDM: 13 (-5)
CON: 12 (-98)
LAB: 12 (-105)
LOC: 6 (-27)
SNP: 0 (-1)
IND: 229 (+172)
RFM: 64 (+54)
GRN: 15 (+10)
LDM: 13 (-5)
CON: 12 (-98)
LAB: 12 (-105)
LOC: 6 (-27)
SNP: 0 (-1)
September 19, 2025 at 4:53 PM
I've made a chart showing defections over the same time period. The first number here is the total defections in each party's favour. The net movement is in brackets:
IND: 229 (+172)
RFM: 64 (+54)
GRN: 15 (+10)
LDM: 13 (-5)
CON: 12 (-98)
LAB: 12 (-105)
LOC: 6 (-27)
SNP: 0 (-1)
IND: 229 (+172)
RFM: 64 (+54)
GRN: 15 (+10)
LDM: 13 (-5)
CON: 12 (-98)
LAB: 12 (-105)
LOC: 6 (-27)
SNP: 0 (-1)
Givan's been at it too...
September 12, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Givan's been at it too...
Lib Dems now control more councils than Conservatives.
May 3, 2025 at 12:28 PM
Lib Dems now control more councils than Conservatives.
