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izris.bsky.social
ᴬᵐᵇᵉʳ ᴹᶦᶜʰᵃᵘᵈ
@izris.bsky.social
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Reposted by ᴬᵐᵇᵉʳ ᴹᶦᶜʰᵃᵘᵈ
edzitron.com
Beneath the surface of this AGI hype is a horrifyingly unstable web of debt, where SoftBank must borrow money to fund OpenAI to pay CoreWeave for services that it must borrow money to provide. OpenAI and CoreWeave burn $10bn+ a year. It’s a timebomb.
www.wheresyoured.at/optimistic-cowardice/
Last week, I covered the shaky state of Al data center provider CoreWeave — an unprofitable company riddled by onerous debt, with 77% of its $1.9 billion of 2024 revenue coming from Microsoft and NVIDIA. CoreWeave lost $863 million in revenue in 2024, and when I published this analysis, some people suggested that its "growth would fix things," and that OpenAl's deal to buy $11.9 billion of compute over five years was a sign that everything would be okay. Since then, some things have come out: • The Financial Times reports that CoreWeave's loan payments will grow to around $3.5 billion in 2025, in part thanks to the payments starting in October on Delayed Draw Term Loan 2.0. That month will become important very shortly. • This $3.5bn is far, far higher than my original estimate, which shows that I was, in fact, being too charitable to this dog of a company. • Remember when the Financial Times reported that Microsoft had "dropped some CoreWeave services"? Well, it turns out that meant that, according to Semafor, that Microsoft chose not to exercise the option to spend $12 billion on future compute with CoreWeave. • Semafor further reports that "...OpenAl snapped up the contract," suggesting, I believe, that this is Microsoft disconnecting from OpenAl, which is now, at least on paper, CoreWeave's largest customer. • This comes at a time when Microsoft has pulled back from over a gigawatt of capacity, or the combined capacity of every data center in Tokyo, the largest data center market in Asia. • Hey, remember when I mentioned the month of October? Well, The Information reports that that is when OpenAl's deal with CoreWeave starts, which means that CoreWeave's continued ability to pay its bills is both contingent upon and absorbed by its revenue from OpenAl. Hey, remember when I mentioned the month of October? Well, The Information reports that that is when OpenAl's deal with CoreWeave starts, which means that CoreWeave's continued ability to pay its bills is both contingent upon and absorbed by its revenue from OpenAl. • The Information also reports that CoreWeave will burn $15 billion in 2025, up from around $6 billion (I imagine including capital expenditures) in 2024. The Financial Times reports that CoreWeave has $5.8 billion of cash available, made up of loans it's yet to draw and $1.4 billion in cash.
March 24, 2025 at 5:10 PM
izris.bsky.social
To be indoctrinated means being taught to fully accept a specific set of beliefs without question.
November 16, 2025 at 5:58 PM