Izaak
@izaaak.bsky.social
A little disappointed that the bird site will be where all the space tweets are going to stay, thanks to big E running both it and SpaceX.
(I’ve been blocked, but for anyone reading along and wondering how dumb the last bit there is, it’s true)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
December 23, 2025 at 6:23 PM
(I’ve been blocked, but for anyone reading along and wondering how dumb the last bit there is, it’s true)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...
And the boogey man could be hiding under your bed right now. Making up magical scenarios which make no sense to be afraid of is no value to anyone
December 23, 2025 at 6:16 PM
And the boogey man could be hiding under your bed right now. Making up magical scenarios which make no sense to be afraid of is no value to anyone
You aren’t informed enough to have an opinion of any value, I’m afraid
You could be, and I recommend starting with reading Arms Control Wonk’s work. But until then you’re just serving as another example of what the uninformed public commonly think
You could be, and I recommend starting with reading Arms Control Wonk’s work. But until then you’re just serving as another example of what the uninformed public commonly think
December 23, 2025 at 6:04 PM
You aren’t informed enough to have an opinion of any value, I’m afraid
You could be, and I recommend starting with reading Arms Control Wonk’s work. But until then you’re just serving as another example of what the uninformed public commonly think
You could be, and I recommend starting with reading Arms Control Wonk’s work. But until then you’re just serving as another example of what the uninformed public commonly think
… They don’t “interfere with comms over a vast area” like you imagine.
They are very powerful, but they are not magic.
The USA is very big. Even a large thermonuclear explosion over Chicago will have no immediate effect on the rest of the country
They are very powerful, but they are not magic.
The USA is very big. Even a large thermonuclear explosion over Chicago will have no immediate effect on the rest of the country
December 23, 2025 at 6:01 PM
… They don’t “interfere with comms over a vast area” like you imagine.
They are very powerful, but they are not magic.
The USA is very big. Even a large thermonuclear explosion over Chicago will have no immediate effect on the rest of the country
They are very powerful, but they are not magic.
The USA is very big. Even a large thermonuclear explosion over Chicago will have no immediate effect on the rest of the country
This is the dumbest line of reasoning ever.
Why wait until after the first missile is detected to “hack” the entire set of independent and unrelated early warning systems?
And the USA has detonated literally hundreds of nuclear warheads on US soil…
Why wait until after the first missile is detected to “hack” the entire set of independent and unrelated early warning systems?
And the USA has detonated literally hundreds of nuclear warheads on US soil…
December 23, 2025 at 5:59 PM
This is the dumbest line of reasoning ever.
Why wait until after the first missile is detected to “hack” the entire set of independent and unrelated early warning systems?
And the USA has detonated literally hundreds of nuclear warheads on US soil…
Why wait until after the first missile is detected to “hack” the entire set of independent and unrelated early warning systems?
And the USA has detonated literally hundreds of nuclear warheads on US soil…
“The American people” is almost always used to collectively refer to “all of the people of the USA, collectively”, not “individuals in the US military involved with US nuclear release”
December 23, 2025 at 5:53 PM
“The American people” is almost always used to collectively refer to “all of the people of the USA, collectively”, not “individuals in the US military involved with US nuclear release”
That’s absolutely not correct
In the House of Dynamite scenario, Chicago being (possibly, if the incoming warhead both is real and functions correctly) incinerated makes zero difference to the capacity to retaliate.
There are no other missiles incoming, because satellites and radar show none
In the House of Dynamite scenario, Chicago being (possibly, if the incoming warhead both is real and functions correctly) incinerated makes zero difference to the capacity to retaliate.
There are no other missiles incoming, because satellites and radar show none
December 23, 2025 at 5:49 PM
That’s absolutely not correct
In the House of Dynamite scenario, Chicago being (possibly, if the incoming warhead both is real and functions correctly) incinerated makes zero difference to the capacity to retaliate.
There are no other missiles incoming, because satellites and radar show none
In the House of Dynamite scenario, Chicago being (possibly, if the incoming warhead both is real and functions correctly) incinerated makes zero difference to the capacity to retaliate.
There are no other missiles incoming, because satellites and radar show none
All it does is reduce the chance of a disproportionate response or misattributing the strike to the wrong aggressor and very slightly reduces the likelihood of global thermonuclear armageddon
What the American people “will go along with” is pretty irrelevant when the megatons start getting lobbed
What the American people “will go along with” is pretty irrelevant when the megatons start getting lobbed
December 23, 2025 at 3:17 PM
All it does is reduce the chance of a disproportionate response or misattributing the strike to the wrong aggressor and very slightly reduces the likelihood of global thermonuclear armageddon
What the American people “will go along with” is pretty irrelevant when the megatons start getting lobbed
What the American people “will go along with” is pretty irrelevant when the megatons start getting lobbed
I don’t know what that means. It maybe delays the response by 20 minutes, doesn’t rule out retaliatory strikes in any way, and the people incinerated in the initial targets are gone no matter what
What does “going along with” look like? Are you worried what the polls will look like the next day?
What does “going along with” look like? Are you worried what the polls will look like the next day?
December 23, 2025 at 3:13 PM
I don’t know what that means. It maybe delays the response by 20 minutes, doesn’t rule out retaliatory strikes in any way, and the people incinerated in the initial targets are gone no matter what
What does “going along with” look like? Are you worried what the polls will look like the next day?
What does “going along with” look like? Are you worried what the polls will look like the next day?
Apologies to @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social (whose work should be required reading for anyone wanting to comment on the movie) for the mistakes in my reply above. It’s my vague recollection at fault
December 19, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Apologies to @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social (whose work should be required reading for anyone wanting to comment on the movie) for the mistakes in my reply above. It’s my vague recollection at fault
I’ll stop before I get into my perception that the USA is so fearful as a whole now that it can’t fathom the possibility that accepting a hit is the strongest response
December 19, 2025 at 8:50 PM
I’ll stop before I get into my perception that the USA is so fearful as a whole now that it can’t fathom the possibility that accepting a hit is the strongest response
It would have been redeeming if the movie had even addressed the question of what value there is (isn’t) in rushing to react, rather than highlighting that every reaction leaves everyone in Chicago just as dead and the benefit of accepting a blow and responding the most advantageous way.
December 19, 2025 at 8:49 PM
It would have been redeeming if the movie had even addressed the question of what value there is (isn’t) in rushing to react, rather than highlighting that every reaction leaves everyone in Chicago just as dead and the benefit of accepting a blow and responding the most advantageous way.
Chicago gets just as annihilated either way but there’s no advantage firing before that, and a much better chance of making a smarter choice through waiting. And that’s even before considering the chance the warhead is a dud.
December 19, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Chicago gets just as annihilated either way but there’s no advantage firing before that, and a much better chance of making a smarter choice through waiting. And that’s even before considering the chance the warhead is a dud.
Most disappointing was the lack of mention of the ride it out option
The false premise that the decision of how to respond had to be made before the warhead impacted was understandable to make the film go, but annoying throughout.
The false premise that the decision of how to respond had to be made before the warhead impacted was understandable to make the film go, but annoying throughout.
December 19, 2025 at 8:44 PM
Most disappointing was the lack of mention of the ride it out option
The false premise that the decision of how to respond had to be made before the warhead impacted was understandable to make the film go, but annoying throughout.
The false premise that the decision of how to respond had to be made before the warhead impacted was understandable to make the film go, but annoying throughout.
This is wrong, though, I think.
I thought the current doctrine is to fire a salvo of four interceptors at each incoming missile. And that there isn’t a look-shoot-look response because there just isn’t time.
I thought the current doctrine is to fire a salvo of four interceptors at each incoming missile. And that there isn’t a look-shoot-look response because there just isn’t time.
December 19, 2025 at 7:05 PM
This is wrong, though, I think.
I thought the current doctrine is to fire a salvo of four interceptors at each incoming missile. And that there isn’t a look-shoot-look response because there just isn’t time.
I thought the current doctrine is to fire a salvo of four interceptors at each incoming missile. And that there isn’t a look-shoot-look response because there just isn’t time.
Is it like the Nigerian scam emails? So bad that only the easy marks respond?
If you’re the sort of parent who doesn’t notice the garbage AI inconsistencies in the image (too busy, too shame-filled, too desperate…), then you’re probably the sort who can be milked and upsold continually
If you’re the sort of parent who doesn’t notice the garbage AI inconsistencies in the image (too busy, too shame-filled, too desperate…), then you’re probably the sort who can be milked and upsold continually
December 17, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Is it like the Nigerian scam emails? So bad that only the easy marks respond?
If you’re the sort of parent who doesn’t notice the garbage AI inconsistencies in the image (too busy, too shame-filled, too desperate…), then you’re probably the sort who can be milked and upsold continually
If you’re the sort of parent who doesn’t notice the garbage AI inconsistencies in the image (too busy, too shame-filled, too desperate…), then you’re probably the sort who can be milked and upsold continually
It’s a regular English idiom too
December 16, 2025 at 3:12 PM
It’s a regular English idiom too
…which is what I thought your “air conditioned trailer 1000 miles away” was referring to
December 16, 2025 at 2:40 AM
…which is what I thought your “air conditioned trailer 1000 miles away” was referring to
Oh absolutely. Yeah the “software will conquer all” take is absurd.
I was thinking more of the people confused by the difference between lobbing FPV exploding drones at each other between trenches and a MQ-9 flown from Texas firing a Hellfire at a wedding in Yemen
I was thinking more of the people confused by the difference between lobbing FPV exploding drones at each other between trenches and a MQ-9 flown from Texas firing a Hellfire at a wedding in Yemen
December 16, 2025 at 2:39 AM
Oh absolutely. Yeah the “software will conquer all” take is absurd.
I was thinking more of the people confused by the difference between lobbing FPV exploding drones at each other between trenches and a MQ-9 flown from Texas firing a Hellfire at a wedding in Yemen
I was thinking more of the people confused by the difference between lobbing FPV exploding drones at each other between trenches and a MQ-9 flown from Texas firing a Hellfire at a wedding in Yemen
Not that the people you’re talking about are talking about those attacks, but it does represent an occasional (and very logistically expensive) opportunity to extend FPV attacks beyond their normal handful of km range
December 16, 2025 at 1:37 AM
Not that the people you’re talking about are talking about those attacks, but it does represent an occasional (and very logistically expensive) opportunity to extend FPV attacks beyond their normal handful of km range
There have been a couple(?) of cases where attacks deep inside Russia were carried out by fiber-optic FPV/Ardupilot drones launched from disguised shipping containers/mobile buildings which used cellular connections back to pilots in Ukraine, weren’t there?
December 16, 2025 at 1:36 AM
There have been a couple(?) of cases where attacks deep inside Russia were carried out by fiber-optic FPV/Ardupilot drones launched from disguised shipping containers/mobile buildings which used cellular connections back to pilots in Ukraine, weren’t there?
The same stimulus that prompted you, or your friend, to bring up the specific physics problem in that conversation was the signal that prompted the recommendations. Not the conversation itself
Not coincidence, and not random. But not as coarse and unsubtle as listening to a conversation
Not coincidence, and not random. But not as coarse and unsubtle as listening to a conversation
December 9, 2025 at 1:09 AM
The same stimulus that prompted you, or your friend, to bring up the specific physics problem in that conversation was the signal that prompted the recommendations. Not the conversation itself
Not coincidence, and not random. But not as coarse and unsubtle as listening to a conversation
Not coincidence, and not random. But not as coarse and unsubtle as listening to a conversation