Ivan Werning
@ivanwerning.bsky.social
MIT Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics | Macro, International, Public, Monetary, Taxes, Finance | v = u + β v | Beatles | Boston | Argentina | Patagonia
I have been missing from here. Is this growing or shrinking? Opinions?
October 17, 2025 at 12:17 PM
I have been missing from here. Is this growing or shrinking? Opinions?
Here is a video of this presentation on Tariffs and the best monetary policy response:
www.youtube.com/live/DoFrOjJ...
www.youtube.com/live/DoFrOjJ...
September 6, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Here is a video of this presentation on Tariffs and the best monetary policy response:
www.youtube.com/live/DoFrOjJ...
www.youtube.com/live/DoFrOjJ...
Workshop in International Macro
📣 Call for Papers 📣
Montevideo, Uruguay, Dec 10-11
Keynote: Ricardo Caballero
Submit your paper: digitatics.typeform.com/to/rUqHU5hOh...
📣 Call for Papers 📣
Montevideo, Uruguay, Dec 10-11
Keynote: Ricardo Caballero
Submit your paper: digitatics.typeform.com/to/rUqHU5hOh...
July 26, 2025 at 12:13 AM
Workshop in International Macro
📣 Call for Papers 📣
Montevideo, Uruguay, Dec 10-11
Keynote: Ricardo Caballero
Submit your paper: digitatics.typeform.com/to/rUqHU5hOh...
📣 Call for Papers 📣
Montevideo, Uruguay, Dec 10-11
Keynote: Ricardo Caballero
Submit your paper: digitatics.typeform.com/to/rUqHU5hOh...
🚨New paper with Veronica Guerrieri and Guido Lorenzoni
Was the recent inflation surge due to a lack of coordination? Can lack of coordination lead to too much inflation?
Yes, we show. Especially in response to global supply shocks.
link to paper: economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul...
1/n🧵
Was the recent inflation surge due to a lack of coordination? Can lack of coordination lead to too much inflation?
Yes, we show. Especially in response to global supply shocks.
link to paper: economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul...
1/n🧵
June 9, 2025 at 12:48 PM
🚨New paper with Veronica Guerrieri and Guido Lorenzoni
Was the recent inflation surge due to a lack of coordination? Can lack of coordination lead to too much inflation?
Yes, we show. Especially in response to global supply shocks.
link to paper: economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul...
1/n🧵
Was the recent inflation surge due to a lack of coordination? Can lack of coordination lead to too much inflation?
Yes, we show. Especially in response to global supply shocks.
link to paper: economics.mit.edu/sites/defaul...
1/n🧵
https://news.mit.edu/2025/stanley-fischer-towering-figure-economics-dies-0603
t.co
June 5, 2025 at 3:25 PM
What should the Fed do with Trump Tariffs?
New paper on 'Monetary Policy in Times of Tariffs' with Guido Lorenzoni & Veronica Guerrieri (link at end)
We show simplest most intuitive way to approach tariffs is actually correct:
Tariffs = textbook cost-push shock
www.nber.org/papers/w33772
🧵1/N
New paper on 'Monetary Policy in Times of Tariffs' with Guido Lorenzoni & Veronica Guerrieri (link at end)
We show simplest most intuitive way to approach tariffs is actually correct:
Tariffs = textbook cost-push shock
www.nber.org/papers/w33772
🧵1/N
May 12, 2025 at 10:58 AM
What should the Fed do with Trump Tariffs?
New paper on 'Monetary Policy in Times of Tariffs' with Guido Lorenzoni & Veronica Guerrieri (link at end)
We show simplest most intuitive way to approach tariffs is actually correct:
Tariffs = textbook cost-push shock
www.nber.org/papers/w33772
🧵1/N
New paper on 'Monetary Policy in Times of Tariffs' with Guido Lorenzoni & Veronica Guerrieri (link at end)
We show simplest most intuitive way to approach tariffs is actually correct:
Tariffs = textbook cost-push shock
www.nber.org/papers/w33772
🧵1/N
How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits...
... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot.
Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit.
Economists typically say "not so fast"...
🧵1/n
... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot.
Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit.
Economists typically say "not so fast"...
🧵1/n
April 14, 2025 at 5:25 PM
How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits...
... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot.
Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit.
Economists typically say "not so fast"...
🧵1/n
... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot.
Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit.
Economists typically say "not so fast"...
🧵1/n
Analyzing theoretical formula used to determine tariffs…
What’s wrong with it?
Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not.
ustr.gov/issue-areas/...
What’s wrong with it?
Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not.
ustr.gov/issue-areas/...
April 3, 2025 at 11:26 AM
Analyzing theoretical formula used to determine tariffs…
What’s wrong with it?
Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not.
ustr.gov/issue-areas/...
What’s wrong with it?
Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not.
ustr.gov/issue-areas/...
This was clearly for the better. I have enjoyed his Substack since then.
CJR has a fair-minded piece on why I left the Times. All in the past now; I'm basically full-time on Substack www.cjr.org/analysis/pau...
Paul Krugman on Leaving the New York Times
The paper wanted to take away his newsletter or make him write less frequently, he says.
www.cjr.org
January 24, 2025 at 1:34 PM
This was clearly for the better. I have enjoyed his Substack since then.
Economics is hard. Even the basics. Exhibit #52783
January 14, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Economics is hard. Even the basics. Exhibit #52783
Trump at it again talking about the virtues of tariffs.
Two key papers: Diamond-Mirrlees Atkinson-Stiglitz, establish conditions under which tariffs should not be employed and show the income tax is a great tax.
Or read @pkrugman.bsky.social Pop internationalism!
Two key papers: Diamond-Mirrlees Atkinson-Stiglitz, establish conditions under which tariffs should not be employed and show the income tax is a great tax.
Or read @pkrugman.bsky.social Pop internationalism!
January 2, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Trump at it again talking about the virtues of tariffs.
Two key papers: Diamond-Mirrlees Atkinson-Stiglitz, establish conditions under which tariffs should not be employed and show the income tax is a great tax.
Or read @pkrugman.bsky.social Pop internationalism!
Two key papers: Diamond-Mirrlees Atkinson-Stiglitz, establish conditions under which tariffs should not be employed and show the income tax is a great tax.
Or read @pkrugman.bsky.social Pop internationalism!
2025 a year of mass deportations and trade wars? I’m not that excited for that.
January 1, 2025 at 12:26 PM
2025 a year of mass deportations and trade wars? I’m not that excited for that.
Has anyone guesstimated Musk’s effect on the election? Sure he went all in.
My own guess is near zero. If so we can stop with the “Musk helped Trump get elected but now…”
My own guess is near zero. If so we can stop with the “Musk helped Trump get elected but now…”
December 28, 2024 at 12:01 PM
Has anyone guesstimated Musk’s effect on the election? Sure he went all in.
My own guess is near zero. If so we can stop with the “Musk helped Trump get elected but now…”
My own guess is near zero. If so we can stop with the “Musk helped Trump get elected but now…”
Argentina, one year into its libertarian presidency Milei is starting to post some good numbers.
Fiscal cut of ~5% of GDP.
Inflation continues to fall.
Structural reforms and deregulations
Recession ending.
Latest: poverty falls after spike earlier this year.
Fiscal cut of ~5% of GDP.
Inflation continues to fall.
Structural reforms and deregulations
Recession ending.
Latest: poverty falls after spike earlier this year.
December 19, 2024 at 11:20 PM
Argentina, one year into its libertarian presidency Milei is starting to post some good numbers.
Fiscal cut of ~5% of GDP.
Inflation continues to fall.
Structural reforms and deregulations
Recession ending.
Latest: poverty falls after spike earlier this year.
Fiscal cut of ~5% of GDP.
Inflation continues to fall.
Structural reforms and deregulations
Recession ending.
Latest: poverty falls after spike earlier this year.
Ambition.
What is the difference between microeconomic theory and macroeconomic theory?
December 19, 2024 at 10:34 PM
Ambition.
New Keynesian economics for you.
December 16, 2024 at 11:35 AM
New Keynesian economics for you.
Tom Sargent honoris causa at di Tella University in Buenos Aires.
December 12, 2024 at 12:28 PM
Tom Sargent honoris causa at di Tella University in Buenos Aires.
Fake Barbara… check the handle
November 26, 2024 at 10:13 PM
Fake Barbara… check the handle
Krugman nails it.
I'll add, what does Bessent mean by "money" being fixed, we don't hold money supply fixed as a policy. Maybe he means wages? But why would some home produced goods fall in price if wages do not fall? It's possibly not even consistent.
I'll add, what does Bessent mean by "money" being fixed, we don't hold money supply fixed as a policy. Maybe he means wages? But why would some home produced goods fall in price if wages do not fall? It's possibly not even consistent.
People have been puzzling over Scott Bessent's claim that tariffs can't be inflationary — which is, by the way, completely different from Trump's claim that foreigners will pay. The thing is, there is a kind of model here — one that is clear, consistent, and totally false 1/
November 26, 2024 at 1:43 PM
Krugman nails it.
I'll add, what does Bessent mean by "money" being fixed, we don't hold money supply fixed as a policy. Maybe he means wages? But why would some home produced goods fall in price if wages do not fall? It's possibly not even consistent.
I'll add, what does Bessent mean by "money" being fixed, we don't hold money supply fixed as a policy. Maybe he means wages? But why would some home produced goods fall in price if wages do not fall? It's possibly not even consistent.
Reposted by Ivan Werning
Just back from giving a talk to 2nd year students on how to approach research, how to write a paper. Abhijit was coming after me (good thing he didn't go first, tough act to follow!)
Here are my slides...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0pm2m...
Here are my slides...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0pm2m...
October 5, 2023 at 2:02 PM
Just back from giving a talk to 2nd year students on how to approach research, how to write a paper. Abhijit was coming after me (good thing he didn't go first, tough act to follow!)
Here are my slides...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0pm2m...
Here are my slides...
www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0pm2m...
Simon Johnson said his daughter asked why he was getting up at 4am and he'd explain he was writing another paper with Daron.
Simon was very gracious and told the story of how Daron invited him to join him and Jim on "a paper"...
Simon was very gracious and told the story of how Daron invited him to join him and Jim on "a paper"...
Bengt Holmstrom recalled he told Daron to drop that political economy stuff and focus a bit more his research. 🧐 🤣
November 22, 2024 at 1:42 PM
Simon Johnson said his daughter asked why he was getting up at 4am and he'd explain he was writing another paper with Daron.
Simon was very gracious and told the story of how Daron invited him to join him and Jim on "a paper"...
Simon was very gracious and told the story of how Daron invited him to join him and Jim on "a paper"...
A great party at MIT to not forget…
Celebrating Daron Acemoglu and his Nobel award!
Happy new in the room was brimming.
Celebrating Daron Acemoglu and his Nobel award!
Happy new in the room was brimming.
November 21, 2024 at 11:48 PM
A great party at MIT to not forget…
Celebrating Daron Acemoglu and his Nobel award!
Happy new in the room was brimming.
Celebrating Daron Acemoglu and his Nobel award!
Happy new in the room was brimming.
Starter pack creators as the new journal editors... 🤣
November 21, 2024 at 3:54 PM
Starter pack creators as the new journal editors... 🤣
Men are more competitive and overconfident but this can be to their long term detriment, says great MBA data.
Fits my experience!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Fits my experience!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Overconfidence and Preferences for Competition
We study when preferences for competition are a positive economic trait among high earners and the extent to which this trait can explain the gender gap in income among a master's degree in business ....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
November 21, 2024 at 12:53 PM
Men are more competitive and overconfident but this can be to their long term detriment, says great MBA data.
Fits my experience!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Fits my experience!
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
#EconSky 📉📈
On Fiscal Dominance, a classic is Sargent-Wallace "Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" in the QR. 💵
In this QR note I celebrate and revisit it. I show their spectacular example relies on being on the wrong side of a Laffer curve. I offer a variant that strengthens their conclusions.
t.co/gGRDafQ01V
In this QR note I celebrate and revisit it. I show their spectacular example relies on being on the wrong side of a Laffer curve. I offer a variant that strengthens their conclusions.
t.co/gGRDafQ01V
November 15, 2024 at 10:26 PM
#EconSky 📉📈