Ivan Svetunkov
@isvetunkov.bsky.social
When I read posts written by some ML experts, I notice that they either overlook or do not explain a few crucial steps in demand forecasting. In this post, I want to highlight the three most important ones (IMHO).
openforecast.org/2025/10/08/s...
#forecasting #machinelearning
openforecast.org/2025/10/08/s...
#forecasting #machinelearning
Several crucial steps in demand forecasting with ML - Open Forecasting
When I read posts written by some ML experts, I sometimes notice that they either overlook or do not clearly explain a few crucial steps in demand forecasting. In this post, I want to highlight the th...
openforecast.org
October 8, 2025 at 10:41 AM
When I read posts written by some ML experts, I notice that they either overlook or do not explain a few crucial steps in demand forecasting. In this post, I want to highlight the three most important ones (IMHO).
openforecast.org/2025/10/08/s...
#forecasting #machinelearning
openforecast.org/2025/10/08/s...
#forecasting #machinelearning
You might have missed a LinkedIn post about Valeriy Manokhin started by Gael Varoquaux: www.linkedin.com/posts/gael-v... - I've tried to keep dialogue with him for a couple of years, hoping that he would be reasonable. It appears that the whole ML and DS communities know of his toxic behaviour...
Valeriy Manokhin, PhD, MBA, CQF is a toxic dishonest individual posing as a data science expert. Due to his extensive activity on social media, he has way too many followers. If you're following h...
Valeriy Manokhin, PhD, MBA, CQF is a toxic dishonest individual posing as a data science expert. Due to his extensive activity on social media, he has way too many followers. If you're following him, ...
www.linkedin.com
September 4, 2025 at 2:55 PM
You might have missed a LinkedIn post about Valeriy Manokhin started by Gael Varoquaux: www.linkedin.com/posts/gael-v... - I've tried to keep dialogue with him for a couple of years, hoping that he would be reasonable. It appears that the whole ML and DS communities know of his toxic behaviour...
Some of you know that the UK education sector is in crisis. The blame is often placed on Chinese students, who have stopped coming to the UK for increasingly expensive education. We have issues at Lancaster University, so I wrote a post: ivan.svetunkov.com/en/2025/07/3...
#education #crisis
#education #crisis
Lancaster University crisis – Ivan Svetunkov
ivan.svetunkov.com
July 31, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Some of you know that the UK education sector is in crisis. The blame is often placed on Chinese students, who have stopped coming to the UK for increasingly expensive education. We have issues at Lancaster University, so I wrote a post: ivan.svetunkov.com/en/2025/07/3...
#education #crisis
#education #crisis
This year, I couldn’t attend the International Symposium on Forecasting, which I usually do, so instead I went to Gran Canaria for ITISE 2025 to present my research with Nikos Kourentzes on pooling. Read more about it here: openforecast.org/2025/07/21/i...
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning
ITISE2025: Beyond summary performance metrics for forecast selection and combination - Open Forecasting
This year, I couldn’t attend the International Symposium on Forecasting (organised by the International Institute of Forecasters), which I usually do, so instead I went to Gran Canaria for the Interna...
openforecast.org
July 21, 2025 at 10:24 AM
This year, I couldn’t attend the International Symposium on Forecasting, which I usually do, so instead I went to Gran Canaria for ITISE 2025 to present my research with Nikos Kourentzes on pooling. Read more about it here: openforecast.org/2025/07/21/i...
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning
Good news, everyone! We have finally made some progress translating the smooth package from R to Python (done between Filotas Theodosiou, Leonidas Tsaprounis and me). I've written a short post on that with some links:
openforecast.org/2025/06/30/i...
#python #datascience #rstats
openforecast.org/2025/06/30/i...
#python #datascience #rstats
IIF Open Source Forecasting software workshop and smooth - Open Forecasting
Here is one thing you have probably not heard of: a workshop on Open Source Forecasting software, held in Beijing on 26th – 27th June 2025. This was a closed event, with speakers attending by invitati...
openforecast.org
June 30, 2025 at 11:52 AM
Good news, everyone! We have finally made some progress translating the smooth package from R to Python (done between Filotas Theodosiou, Leonidas Tsaprounis and me). I've written a short post on that with some links:
openforecast.org/2025/06/30/i...
#python #datascience #rstats
openforecast.org/2025/06/30/i...
#python #datascience #rstats
Are there any PhD students in the crowd who want to learn more about forecasting? What about academic supervisors who have such students? Show me your hands! This post is for you!
openforecast.org/2025/06/22/n...
#forecasting #predictiveanalytics #course
openforecast.org/2025/06/22/n...
#forecasting #predictiveanalytics #course
NATCOR course on Forecasting and Predictive Analytics, September 2025 - Open Forecasting
Are there any PhD students in the crowd who want to learn more about forecasting? What about academic supervisors who have such students? Show me your hands! This post is for you! This September, we (...
openforecast.org
June 22, 2025 at 1:25 PM
Are there any PhD students in the crowd who want to learn more about forecasting? What about academic supervisors who have such students? Show me your hands! This post is for you!
openforecast.org/2025/06/22/n...
#forecasting #predictiveanalytics #course
openforecast.org/2025/06/22/n...
#forecasting #predictiveanalytics #course
There's a large area in time series analysis called "changepoint detection". I hadn't worked there before, but thanks to Rebecca Killick and Tom Grundy, I contributed to the paper, which has just been published in the Journal of Time Series Analysis.
openforecast.org/2025/06/11/o...
openforecast.org/2025/06/11/o...
Online Detection of Forecast Model Inadequacies Using Forecast Errors - Open Forecasting
There’s a large and fascinating area in time series analysis called “changepoint detection”. I hadn’t worked in this area before, but thanks to Rebecca Killick and Thomas Grundy, I contributed to the ...
openforecast.org
June 11, 2025 at 12:10 PM
There's a large area in time series analysis called "changepoint detection". I hadn't worked there before, but thanks to Rebecca Killick and Tom Grundy, I contributed to the paper, which has just been published in the Journal of Time Series Analysis.
openforecast.org/2025/06/11/o...
openforecast.org/2025/06/11/o...
SBC is not for you!
I’ve been acting as a reviewer lately, providing comments on papers about intermittent demand, and I’ve felt a bit frustrated by what some authors write. Let me explain.
openforecast.org/2025/06/04/s...
#machinelearning #datascience #forecasting #intermittent #demand
I’ve been acting as a reviewer lately, providing comments on papers about intermittent demand, and I’ve felt a bit frustrated by what some authors write. Let me explain.
openforecast.org/2025/06/04/s...
#machinelearning #datascience #forecasting #intermittent #demand
SBC is not for you! - Open Forecasting
I’ve been acting as a reviewer lately, providing comments on papers about intermittent demand, and I’ve felt a bit frustrated by what some authors write. Let me explain. Several papers I reviewed clai...
openforecast.org
June 4, 2025 at 12:07 PM
SBC is not for you!
I’ve been acting as a reviewer lately, providing comments on papers about intermittent demand, and I’ve felt a bit frustrated by what some authors write. Let me explain.
openforecast.org/2025/06/04/s...
#machinelearning #datascience #forecasting #intermittent #demand
I’ve been acting as a reviewer lately, providing comments on papers about intermittent demand, and I’ve felt a bit frustrated by what some authors write. Let me explain.
openforecast.org/2025/06/04/s...
#machinelearning #datascience #forecasting #intermittent #demand
NHS has a helpful page with a set of questions you can ask your GP to ensure you receive the right treatment for your illness. Surprisingly, these questions can be applied in other fields as well. Here’s an example in applied forecasting, working with companies.
openforecast.org/2025/05/28/s...
openforecast.org/2025/05/28/s...
Six questions for a forecaster-consultant - Open Forecasting
NHS has a helpful page with a set of questions you can ask your GP to ensure you receive the right treatment for your illness. Surprisingly, these questions can be applied in other fields as well. Her...
openforecast.org
May 28, 2025 at 12:01 PM
NHS has a helpful page with a set of questions you can ask your GP to ensure you receive the right treatment for your illness. Surprisingly, these questions can be applied in other fields as well. Here’s an example in applied forecasting, working with companies.
openforecast.org/2025/05/28/s...
openforecast.org/2025/05/28/s...
Fundamental Flaw of the Box-Jenkins Methodology
If you've taken a course on forecasting or time series analysis, you’ve probably heard of ARIMA and the Box–Jenkins methodology. IMHO, the methodology has a fundamental flaw and should not be used. Here’s why.
openforecast.org/2025/05/13/f...
If you've taken a course on forecasting or time series analysis, you’ve probably heard of ARIMA and the Box–Jenkins methodology. IMHO, the methodology has a fundamental flaw and should not be used. Here’s why.
openforecast.org/2025/05/13/f...
Fundamental Flaw of the Box-Jenkins Methodology - Open Forecasting
If you have taken a course on forecasting or time series analysis, you’ve probably heard of ARIMA and the Box–Jenkins methodology. In my opinion, this methodology has a fundamental flaw and should not...
openforecast.org
May 13, 2025 at 12:10 PM
Fundamental Flaw of the Box-Jenkins Methodology
If you've taken a course on forecasting or time series analysis, you’ve probably heard of ARIMA and the Box–Jenkins methodology. IMHO, the methodology has a fundamental flaw and should not be used. Here’s why.
openforecast.org/2025/05/13/f...
If you've taken a course on forecasting or time series analysis, you’ve probably heard of ARIMA and the Box–Jenkins methodology. IMHO, the methodology has a fundamental flaw and should not be used. Here’s why.
openforecast.org/2025/05/13/f...
It was great to attend the 5th IMA & OR conference and present my research with Anna Sroginis on model-based demand classification.
openforecast.org/2025/05/02/5...
#forecasting #demandplanning #datascience #operationsresearch
openforecast.org/2025/05/02/5...
#forecasting #demandplanning #datascience #operationsresearch
5th IMA and OR Society Conference - Open Forecasting
It was a pleasure to attend the 5th IMA and OR Society Conference at Aston University, Birmingham, and to present my research with Anna Sroginis on model-based demand classification. A great crowd of ...
openforecast.org
May 2, 2025 at 2:58 PM
It was great to attend the 5th IMA & OR conference and present my research with Anna Sroginis on model-based demand classification.
openforecast.org/2025/05/02/5...
#forecasting #demandplanning #datascience #operationsresearch
openforecast.org/2025/05/02/5...
#forecasting #demandplanning #datascience #operationsresearch
Reposted by Ivan Svetunkov
The AI2027 exercise (ai-2027.com) is the n-tieth example of Silicon Valley inbued-thinking boys (even when they are not kids) extrapolating trends with back-of-the-envelope calculations to justify their unidimensional sci-fi dreams of AGI. >>
AI 2027
A research-backed AI scenario forecast.
ai-2027.com
April 16, 2025 at 4:17 PM
The AI2027 exercise (ai-2027.com) is the n-tieth example of Silicon Valley inbued-thinking boys (even when they are not kids) extrapolating trends with back-of-the-envelope calculations to justify their unidimensional sci-fi dreams of AGI. >>
For the last year, Anna Sroginis and I have been working on a paper, modernising demand classification schemes and making them useful in the brave new era of machine learning. I've written a post about this paper, you can read it here: openforecast.org/2025/04/11/s...
#machinelearning #forecasting
#machinelearning #forecasting
Svetunkov & Sroginis (2025) - Model Based Demand Classification - Open Forecasting
For the last year, Anna Sroginis and I have been working on a paper, trying to modernise demand classification schemes and make them useful in the brave new era of machine learning. We have finally wr...
openforecast.org
April 11, 2025 at 10:51 AM
For the last year, Anna Sroginis and I have been working on a paper, modernising demand classification schemes and making them useful in the brave new era of machine learning. I've written a post about this paper, you can read it here: openforecast.org/2025/04/11/s...
#machinelearning #forecasting
#machinelearning #forecasting
Challenges related to seasonal data: shifting seasonality
There are many different issues with capturing seasonality in time series. In this short post, I’d like to discuss one of the most annoying ones: openforecast.org/2025/04/07/c...
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning #daylight
There are many different issues with capturing seasonality in time series. In this short post, I’d like to discuss one of the most annoying ones: openforecast.org/2025/04/07/c...
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning #daylight
Challenges related to seasonal data: shifting seasonality - Open Forecasting
There are many different issues with capturing seasonality in time series. In this short post, I’d like to discuss one of the most annoying ones. I’m talking about the seasonal pattern that shifts ove...
openforecast.org
April 8, 2025 at 10:59 AM
Challenges related to seasonal data: shifting seasonality
There are many different issues with capturing seasonality in time series. In this short post, I’d like to discuss one of the most annoying ones: openforecast.org/2025/04/07/c...
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning #daylight
There are many different issues with capturing seasonality in time series. In this short post, I’d like to discuss one of the most annoying ones: openforecast.org/2025/04/07/c...
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning #daylight
There is still time to sign up for our forecasting course. See the link below.
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning
Ivan Svetunkov (@isvetunkov.bsky.social) and I are organising a course in demand forecasting with R in May 2025!
The course is meant for practitioners and academics alike who are interested in learning forecasting as a methodology.
Come and join us!
Link: www.lancaster.ac.uk/centre-for-m...
The course is meant for practitioners and academics alike who are interested in learning forecasting as a methodology.
Come and join us!
Link: www.lancaster.ac.uk/centre-for-m...
Demand Forecasting Principles with examples in R - Lancaster University
www.lancaster.ac.uk
March 26, 2025 at 8:46 AM
There is still time to sign up for our forecasting course. See the link below.
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning
#forecasting #datascience #machinelearning
If someone tells you that method X solves all problems and is the best one ever, they are either lying or do not fully understand what they are talking about. There is no such thing as “the best approach for everything”. Let me explain: openforecast.org/2025/03/06/t...
#forecasting #machinelearning
#forecasting #machinelearning
There is no such thing as "the best approach for everything" - Open Forecasting
If someone tells you that method X solves all problems and is the best one ever, they are either lying intentionally or do not fully understand what they are talking about. There is no such thing as “...
openforecast.org
March 6, 2025 at 2:01 PM
If someone tells you that method X solves all problems and is the best one ever, they are either lying or do not fully understand what they are talking about. There is no such thing as “the best approach for everything”. Let me explain: openforecast.org/2025/03/06/t...
#forecasting #machinelearning
#forecasting #machinelearning
Who (or what) is "Forecasting academia"?
A short post on my website to explain what this term means:
openforecast.org/2025/02/27/w...
A short post on my website to explain what this term means:
openforecast.org/2025/02/27/w...
What is "Forecasting academia"? - Open Forecasting
If you follow certain influencers on LinkedIn, you might have come across the term “forecasting academia” (or “applied forecasting academia”). If you’re not familiar with the field, you might not know...
openforecast.org
February 27, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Who (or what) is "Forecasting academia"?
A short post on my website to explain what this term means:
openforecast.org/2025/02/27/w...
A short post on my website to explain what this term means:
openforecast.org/2025/02/27/w...
Over the last few years, I’ve seen phrases like “LightGBM model” or “Neural Network model” on LinkedIn many times, and the statistician in me shivers every time. So, I figured we should discuss that topic... again...
#machinelearning #datascience #stats
openforecast.org/2025/02/04/m...
#machinelearning #datascience #stats
openforecast.org/2025/02/04/m...
Model vs Method - why should we care? - Open Forecasting
Image above depicts a fashion model making a presentation about a forecasting method. I like the forecast for the final period in that image… Over the last few years, I’ve seen phrases like “LightGBM ...
openforecast.org
February 4, 2025 at 12:25 PM
Over the last few years, I’ve seen phrases like “LightGBM model” or “Neural Network model” on LinkedIn many times, and the statistician in me shivers every time. So, I figured we should discuss that topic... again...
#machinelearning #datascience #stats
openforecast.org/2025/02/04/m...
#machinelearning #datascience #stats
openforecast.org/2025/02/04/m...
Don’t use MAE-based error measures for intermittent demand! A new post for social media on my website: openforecast.org/2025/01/21/d...
#forecasting #machinelearning #datascience
#forecasting #machinelearning #datascience
Don’t use MAE-based error measures for intermittent demand! - Open Forecasting
I’m currently doing a literature review for one of my papers on intermittent demand forecasting with machine learning, and I’ve noticed a recurring fundamental mistake in several recently published pa...
openforecast.org
January 21, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Don’t use MAE-based error measures for intermittent demand! A new post for social media on my website: openforecast.org/2025/01/21/d...
#forecasting #machinelearning #datascience
#forecasting #machinelearning #datascience
There is no such thing as an “assumption-free approach”.
One thing that bothers me when I read posts on social media or papers in peer-reviewed journals is the claim that a proposed approach is “assumption-free.” In forecasting, this is never true. Here’s why: openforecast.org/2025/01/07/t...
One thing that bothers me when I read posts on social media or papers in peer-reviewed journals is the claim that a proposed approach is “assumption-free.” In forecasting, this is never true. Here’s why: openforecast.org/2025/01/07/t...
January 7, 2025 at 4:43 PM
There is no such thing as an “assumption-free approach”.
One thing that bothers me when I read posts on social media or papers in peer-reviewed journals is the claim that a proposed approach is “assumption-free.” In forecasting, this is never true. Here’s why: openforecast.org/2025/01/07/t...
One thing that bothers me when I read posts on social media or papers in peer-reviewed journals is the claim that a proposed approach is “assumption-free.” In forecasting, this is never true. Here’s why: openforecast.org/2025/01/07/t...
A paper to read over the Xmas holiday: Wang et al. (2023) – Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review by Xiaoqian Wang, @robjhyndman.com, Feng Li, and Yanfei Kang
openforecast.org/2024/12/23/a...
openforecast.org/2024/12/23/a...
A paper to read over the Xmas holiday: Wang et al. (2023) - Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review - Open Forecasting
Christmas and the New Year are upon us, and I wanted to publish a celebratory post before taking a break. Instead of writing something educational, I decided to simply recommend a paper for you to rea...
openforecast.org
December 23, 2024 at 2:47 PM
A paper to read over the Xmas holiday: Wang et al. (2023) – Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review by Xiaoqian Wang, @robjhyndman.com, Feng Li, and Yanfei Kang
openforecast.org/2024/12/23/a...
openforecast.org/2024/12/23/a...
Intermittent demand: don’t try to predict WHEN it will happen: openforecast.org/2024/12/11/i...
#forecasting #machinelearning #ml #datascience
#forecasting #machinelearning #ml #datascience
Intermittent demand: don't try to predict WHEN it will happen - Open Forecasting
I’ve seen several times ML experts applying principles of classification for intermittent demand forecasting. For example, they try predicting, WHEN the demand will happen. This is not a very sensible...
openforecast.org
December 11, 2024 at 11:37 AM
Intermittent demand: don’t try to predict WHEN it will happen: openforecast.org/2024/12/11/i...
#forecasting #machinelearning #ml #datascience
#forecasting #machinelearning #ml #datascience
A good summary of a very important research by @kandrika.bsky.social
Managed to writing up another blog post. It's about my presentation at Drexel University (online), where I presented my current research called forecast congruence with Nikos Kourentzes.
kandrikapritularga.com/2024/12/07/p...
kandrikapritularga.com/2024/12/07/p...
Presenting Forecast Congruence at Drexel University
Oliver Schaer, a colleague of mine at Drexel University, US, invited me to talk about my current research with Nikos Kourentzes in forecast evaluation; we call it forecast congruence. This research…
kandrikapritularga.com
December 8, 2024 at 3:54 PM
A good summary of a very important research by @kandrika.bsky.social
Why Naive is not a good benchmark for intermittent demand? Here is a brief post to answer this question: openforecast.org/2024/12/02/w...
#forecasting #machinelearning #datascience
#forecasting #machinelearning #datascience
Why Naive is not a good benchmark for intermittent demand - Open Forecasting
While Naive is considered a standard benchmark in forecasting, there is a case where it might not be a good one: intermittent demand. And here is why I think so. Naive is a forecasting method that use...
openforecast.org
December 2, 2024 at 9:12 PM
Why Naive is not a good benchmark for intermittent demand? Here is a brief post to answer this question: openforecast.org/2024/12/02/w...
#forecasting #machinelearning #datascience
#forecasting #machinelearning #datascience
It was a great experience. We are now thinking of repeating this in Spring 2025
Ivan (@isvetunkov.bsky.social) and I just finished our first online Demand Forecasting with R. We learnt basic principles of forecasting as a set of rigorous activities - it's not merely talking about models! It was fun and pleasure to meet people across the world to join us. Happy forecasting!
December 1, 2024 at 7:43 AM
It was a great experience. We are now thinking of repeating this in Spring 2025