Isentrope
@isentrope.bsky.social
He/him/his | politics, news and memes mostly
Did you grind the meat as finely as gyro meat? That's been the main thing stopping me from making gyro and it didn't look like the TikTok doner vids did that kind of prep.
December 15, 2025 at 11:57 PM
Did you grind the meat as finely as gyro meat? That's been the main thing stopping me from making gyro and it didn't look like the TikTok doner vids did that kind of prep.
This happens with NYT anecdotes a lot. I remember a few where they just interviewed literal political operatives and passed them off as random people.
December 15, 2025 at 11:54 PM
This happens with NYT anecdotes a lot. I remember a few where they just interviewed literal political operatives and passed them off as random people.
I wonder how his fundraising is looking. If the scandals did nothing, he'd tell us that he raised a lot of money in October or November. Instead, his finance people all quit.
December 12, 2025 at 4:59 AM
I wonder how his fundraising is looking. If the scandals did nothing, he'd tell us that he raised a lot of money in October or November. Instead, his finance people all quit.
It's super controversial in pizzamaking circles but you can definitely just put pizzas on screens and take them off after the dough has set to bake on the stone/steel directly if you have launch anxiety.
December 12, 2025 at 1:11 AM
It's super controversial in pizzamaking circles but you can definitely just put pizzas on screens and take them off after the dough has set to bake on the stone/steel directly if you have launch anxiety.
She did get Duckworth to endorse today so that's not nothing. Pritzker needs to put up or shut up soon though for sure. Not a great look for him if he thinks he's got a shot at 2028 if he couldn't do redistricting or get an ally as a Senator.
December 12, 2025 at 1:06 AM
She did get Duckworth to endorse today so that's not nothing. Pritzker needs to put up or shut up soon though for sure. Not a great look for him if he thinks he's got a shot at 2028 if he couldn't do redistricting or get an ally as a Senator.
Probably some insurance in case Paxton won the primary. Also this operation probably cost very little and could be a way to induce donors to give as proof of organizational competence.
December 11, 2025 at 11:23 PM
Probably some insurance in case Paxton won the primary. Also this operation probably cost very little and could be a way to induce donors to give as proof of organizational competence.
WI probably needs to get done by January/Feb but their filing deadline is June 1 so it gives theoretically enough time. I think it'd be 3 safe D, 1 lean D, 1 lean R and 3 safe R at most, with the lean R being a rental next year assuming a D+8 midterm environment.
December 11, 2025 at 10:27 PM
WI probably needs to get done by January/Feb but their filing deadline is June 1 so it gives theoretically enough time. I think it'd be 3 safe D, 1 lean D, 1 lean R and 3 safe R at most, with the lean R being a rental next year assuming a D+8 midterm environment.
MD and IL seemed pretty strongly opposed and probably can't be dislodged this cycle. The excuses they gave don't seem like they'd work for 2028 if these redistricting wars keep up though, and by then you'd also have NY (+2-3), NJ (+1-2), CO (potentially +3) and WA/OR (+1 each)
December 11, 2025 at 10:18 PM
MD and IL seemed pretty strongly opposed and probably can't be dislodged this cycle. The excuses they gave don't seem like they'd work for 2028 if these redistricting wars keep up though, and by then you'd also have NY (+2-3), NJ (+1-2), CO (potentially +3) and WA/OR (+1 each)
MO might get paused because of the referendum. Looks like IL and MD really just won't redistrict this cycle so it's down to VA for 3-4 and WI for 2-3 (third being a rental seat).
December 11, 2025 at 10:15 PM
MO might get paused because of the referendum. Looks like IL and MD really just won't redistrict this cycle so it's down to VA for 3-4 and WI for 2-3 (third being a rental seat).
Didn't Pence support redistricting though?
December 11, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Didn't Pence support redistricting though?
Tbf a lot of the spike in SEA exports is likely Chinese exports re-exported to the U.S. to evade tariffs
December 8, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Tbf a lot of the spike in SEA exports is likely Chinese exports re-exported to the U.S. to evade tariffs
Hell, people were talking about Manchin recently about how he said he opposed the second reconciliation bill to get McConnell to support CHIPS+, and changed his mind on reconciliation literally 3 hours after Biden signed CHIPS+.
December 8, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Hell, people were talking about Manchin recently about how he said he opposed the second reconciliation bill to get McConnell to support CHIPS+, and changed his mind on reconciliation literally 3 hours after Biden signed CHIPS+.
Why does it need to be explicit? Trump got into a faux tiff with the P2025 people to disavow it and yet a lot of his agenda comes from P2025 planning. Obama said he opposed gay marriage in 2008 and changed his mind in 2012. Running on this is just needlessly polarizing.
December 8, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Why does it need to be explicit? Trump got into a faux tiff with the P2025 people to disavow it and yet a lot of his agenda comes from P2025 planning. Obama said he opposed gay marriage in 2008 and changed his mind in 2012. Running on this is just needlessly polarizing.
Spinach mushroom ricotta calzones are great too.
December 8, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Spinach mushroom ricotta calzones are great too.
And for Randy Barnett to retweet it...
December 8, 2025 at 6:11 PM
And for Randy Barnett to retweet it...
This has been the case for a while, as Purcell as an exception basically swallows the rule. I think they did this with the AL VRA case too?
December 5, 2025 at 7:13 PM
This has been the case for a while, as Purcell as an exception basically swallows the rule. I think they did this with the AL VRA case too?
The methodology was to recruit likely voters by text and there are certainly parts of Maine that not only don't have good cell reception, but don't have rural broadband either.
December 5, 2025 at 5:49 AM
The methodology was to recruit likely voters by text and there are certainly parts of Maine that not only don't have good cell reception, but don't have rural broadband either.
DDHQ does have a tendency to jump the gun a lot. Even as recently as last month, they prematurely called the Seattle mayoral race too.
December 5, 2025 at 4:25 AM
DDHQ does have a tendency to jump the gun a lot. Even as recently as last month, they prematurely called the Seattle mayoral race too.
Are their losses still from pension liabilities? I thought some of that obligation was reduced recently.
December 5, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Are their losses still from pension liabilities? I thought some of that obligation was reduced recently.
These cuts look more suited for baklava than cake.
December 5, 2025 at 4:12 AM
These cuts look more suited for baklava than cake.
But that does not really shore up their credibility for ME, especially someone who used to work for them running a shop with no history.
December 5, 2025 at 2:29 AM
But that does not really shore up their credibility for ME, especially someone who used to work for them running a shop with no history.
OK, well if you want to say that they are a good pollster for local races solely based on your experience that electoral dynamics are fluid such that 20-50% of the electorate make up their minds in the last two weeks, I'll take your word for it.
December 5, 2025 at 2:29 AM
OK, well if you want to say that they are a good pollster for local races solely based on your experience that electoral dynamics are fluid such that 20-50% of the electorate make up their minds in the last two weeks, I'll take your word for it.
It's tied to the primary, not the general, and Texas just happens to have early primaries. It's still wild though that Purcell went from 21 days before the general election (entirely reasonable) to 6 months before a primary.
December 5, 2025 at 2:09 AM
It's tied to the primary, not the general, and Texas just happens to have early primaries. It's still wild though that Purcell went from 21 days before the general election (entirely reasonable) to 6 months before a primary.
If local races break as much as 20-50 points in the last 2 weeks of an election, then why bring them up in this context? Most people who follow polls expect a federal or state poll taken 2 weeks before an election to not be off by that much.
December 5, 2025 at 12:03 AM
If local races break as much as 20-50 points in the last 2 weeks of an election, then why bring them up in this context? Most people who follow polls expect a federal or state poll taken 2 weeks before an election to not be off by that much.
But in fairness to Change, at least their TX-SEN poll this week sampled RVs for the primary in March - Z to A sampled LVs for a primary in June. It's the classic playbook to spike a poll to get the results you want, and no one will call them out if they're wrong 7 months from now.
December 4, 2025 at 9:37 PM
But in fairness to Change, at least their TX-SEN poll this week sampled RVs for the primary in March - Z to A sampled LVs for a primary in June. It's the classic playbook to spike a poll to get the results you want, and no one will call them out if they're wrong 7 months from now.