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Zay

@isaiahescobar.bsky.social

#VeChain 🤝🏽 PNW 🎄

Follow for daily insights of #BTC #Altcoins

Don’t be like me and buy $400 Ape NFT’s that go to $0

Learn and earn from my mistakes in previous #Bitcoin cycles. 🤝🏽

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Zay

@isaiahescobar.bsky.social

Blessed to see 29 🙏🏽

November 29, 2024 at 9:39 AM

Zay

@isaiahescobar.bsky.social

Hello, my name is Isaiah. I’m passionate about #Videography, #EDM, #Fitness, #Traveling and #Mentalhealth. I came from nothing and know what it’s like to overcome struggles, which is why I’m dedicated to educating and inspiring others to grow, create, and build a better future for themselves.

November 25, 2024 at 12:23 PM

Zay

@isaiahescobar.bsky.social

KEY TAKEAWAYS.

#BITCOIN #IS #IMMUTABLE #GODBLESS 🙏🏽

Click the photo for the 🧵

Here’s the final post summarizing our discussion, tying together Bitcoin’s fundamentals, supply and demand, market narratives, financial literacy, and market cycles:

“Unveiling Bitcoin: Fundamentals, Market Cycles, and Financial Literacy”

1/ Bitcoin’s Value Foundation
At its core, Bitcoin operates on scarcity: only 21M BTC will ever exist. This fixed supply, combined with halving events reducing new Bitcoin production, ensures long-term scarcity.

2/ Supply and Demand: The Economic Engine
Limited supply meets growing demand. As institutions and individuals seek a hedge against inflation, Bitcoin’s value climbs. Its decentralized nature offers an alternative to traditional systems, driving adoption globally.

3/ Market Cycles and Emotional Narratives
Bitcoin thrives in market cycles influenced by human psychology:
• Bull runs are fueled by FOMO and optimism.
• Corrections arise from fear and uncertainty.
Narratives like inflation fears, tech adoption, or global events (e.g., economic crises) amplify these emotions, shaping price movement.

4/ Financial Literacy: The Key to Understanding Value
Understanding assets like Bitcoin goes beyond hype. Recognize the interplay of fair value (true worth based on fundamentals) vs. emotional price swings driven by stories.

5/ Bitcoin as a Market Cycle Catalyst
Bitcoin often follows predictable patterns: consolidation, breakout, trend. For instance, the COVID-19 crisis aligned with its halving cycle, creating a “perfect storm” for its rise from $10K to $60K+.

6/ Actionable Insight
Don’t let noise sway you—focus on fundamentals. Bitcoin’s code is law, guaranteeing scarcity and decentralization. Understanding its supply-demand mechanics and cyclical nature equips you to navigate its market confidently.

7/ Bitcoin isn’t about any one person, election, or event. Its value lies in its unchanging rules and how it fits into the broader financial system as a hedge and an opportunity. 🌍

November 25, 2024 at 9:06 AM

Zay

@isaiahescobar.bsky.social

Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap ensures scarcity, similar to gold. As supply decreases over time (halving events), demand increases, pushing prices up. There’s time to invest, as new supply won’t be exhausted until 2140, allowing supply-demand dynamics to drive value steadily upward.

Unlike fiat currencies, which central banks can inflate at will, Bitcoin operates on a strict limit of 21 million coins. This cap, embedded in its code, creates a fixed supply that ensures its value is dictated by supply and demand.

The Supply Side

1. Hard Cap: No more than 21 million Bitcoins will ever exist, a rule written into the protocol. This scarcity makes Bitcoin a deflationary asset.
2. Halvings: Approximately every four years, the reward for mining Bitcoin is halved, reducing the new supply entering circulation. Historically, this has led to price increases, as diminishing supply meets growing demand.
3. Lost Coins: An estimated 20% of Bitcoin has been lost forever due to forgotten keys or lost wallets, further tightening supply.

The Demand Side

1. Institutional Interest: Companies like Tesla and PayPal have embraced Bitcoin, driving mainstream adoption and creating a new wave of demand.
2. Inflation Hedge: In a world of rising debt and monetary expansion, Bitcoin’s fixed supply offers a safeguard against inflation.
3. Global Utility: Bitcoin provides financial access in regions with unstable currencies or authoritarian governments, further boosting its appeal.

Fair Value and Narratives

Bitcoin’s fair value—its price based on fundamentals like adoption and scarcity—can be distorted by emotional market narratives:
• FOMO: Bull markets attract buyers chasing rising prices.
• Fear: Regulatory or geopolitical news often leads to sharp corrections.
• Macro Events: Crises like the COVID-19 pandemic elevate Bitcoin’s status as a safe-haven asset.

Example

In 2020, inflation fears from stimulus measures coincided with Bitcoin’s halving cycle, propelling its price from $10,000 to over $60,000 by 2021. This rally was driven by both technical fundamentals and the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation.

November 25, 2024 at 9:02 AM

Zay

@isaiahescobar.bsky.social

It’s not about Trump or any leader; it’s about mathematics over manipulation. If markets reflect human psychology, Bitcoin reflects the power of trustless systems.

Click the photo for the 🧵

Why Bitcoin Will Continue to Appreciate: Supply, Demand, and Market Narratives

Increasing Demand
1. Institutional Adoption: Companies like Tesla and MicroStrategy have integrated Bitcoin into their portfolios, signaling its acceptance as a mainstream asset. Payment platforms such as PayPal have also added support, making it easier for consumers to buy and use Bitcoin.
2. Hedge Against Inflation: As global inflation rises, Bitcoin’s fixed supply offers an alternative to fiat currencies, which central banks can inflate through monetary expansion.
3. Global Accessibility: Bitcoin provides financial inclusion in regions with unstable currencies or oppressive governments, appealing to individuals seeking stability and security.

Fair Value and Market Narratives
• Fair Value: This is the price of an asset based on its fundamentals, such as supply, demand, and utility. For Bitcoin, factors like on-chain activity, mining costs, and adoption rates contribute to its fair value.
• Narratives Driving Price: Market sentiment often pushes Bitcoin’s price beyond or below its fair value:
1. FOMO: During bull runs, fear of missing out leads to increased buying.
2. Regulatory Fears: Announcements of potential crackdowns can cause sharp selloffs.
3. Macro Events: Elections, wars, and economic crises can drive demand for Bitcoin as a “safe haven” asset.

Example of Narrative and Technical Alignment
In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread economic instability. Governments implemented stimulus measures, fueling inflation fears. Bitcoin’s narrative as a hedge against fiat devaluation gained traction, aligning with its technical breakout from a long consolidation period. This combination drove its price from $10,000 to over $60,000 by early 2021.

November 25, 2024 at 8:56 AM

Zay

@isaiahescobar.bsky.social

With neither #Trump or #Biden being the reason we see this #asset at its current market price you can see in our charts here that the narrative was the reason for this to make its final move to complete our pattern.

Click the photo for the 🧵

Why Narratives Drive Markets

Narratives, or market stories, drive price action because they influence investor psychology. When people believe in a certain outcome—like economic growth, fear from geopolitical conflict, or optimism about political leadership—they adjust their trades, creating trends that align with technical analysis patterns.

Narratives in Technical Analysis

Bull Flag Pattern:
This technical setup occurs when prices consolidate sideways after a strong uptrend and then break higher. The breakout is often fueled by a strong external narrative, like an election or global event, creating momentum.
• Final Leg Up: The “last leg” in this pattern often coincides with peak optimism (or greed). Long green candles represent strong buying interest, but hesitation (e.g., candles with long wicks or small bodies) can signal the rally’s end.

Example: War Narrative

A geopolitical conflict can drive fear-based price action:
• Safe Haven Assets Rise: Gold or the U.S. Dollar sees large green candles as investors seek safety.
• Risk Assets Drop: Stocks or speculative assets fall with red candles.
• Alignment: If gold had already formed a bull flag, the fear-driven buying could push it into a strong breakout.

Example: Elections (Trump’s Influence)

When Trump was elected, the market anticipated pro-business policies, creating a rally in U.S. stocks:
• Sideways Consolidation: Pre-election, stocks formed a bull flag.
• Narrative Breakout: Optimism over tax cuts acted as the catalyst for the breakout, forming strong green candles.
• Exhaustion: Near the top, candlesticks with long wicks appeared, signaling hesitation and possible reversal.

Financial Literacy Insight

Price action reflects both technical patterns and narrative psychology. Combining these allows you to understand why an asset moves and predict future trends. Examples like Tesla in 2020 (EV optimism) or Bitcoin in 2021 (institutional adoption) show how narratives and technicals align.

November 25, 2024 at 8:39 AM

Zay

@isaiahescobar.bsky.social

I want to try and educate you on how the underlying #fundamentals of the media and the news will drive the price action in the months to follow.

Click the photo for the 🧵