Key insight #4: in extreme scenarios, prohibitive trade barriers could slash global GDP by up to 9% and push inflation up by 4 pp in the first year.

Key insight #3: a firm level stress test shows that sudden supply chain disruptions in inputs from high risk countries could cause significant output losses across sectors, regions and firms

Key insight #2: European firms are reorganizing supply chains, but critical foreign dependencies persist

Key insight #1: selective trade decoupling in tech products is reshaping global trade