Pasi Paroinen
@inkvisiit.bsky.social
Black Bird Group OSINT Analyst.
towards Kostyantynivka as well as finally pushing forwards from Chasiv Yar where the battle for the city center seems to be wrapping up after months of pitched battle. Some sort of general push towards Oskil and Lyman from the Zherebets line could also be in the cards. 9/9
February 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
towards Kostyantynivka as well as finally pushing forwards from Chasiv Yar where the battle for the city center seems to be wrapping up after months of pitched battle. Some sort of general push towards Oskil and Lyman from the Zherebets line could also be in the cards. 9/9
Where Russian forces are steadily expanding the bridgeheads and pushing Ukrainian defenders further away from likely future sites for pontoon bridges. Another possible development to keep an eye on is the breakout from recently conquered Toretsk 8/
February 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Where Russian forces are steadily expanding the bridgeheads and pushing Ukrainian defenders further away from likely future sites for pontoon bridges. Another possible development to keep an eye on is the breakout from recently conquered Toretsk 8/
bsky.app/profile/emil... In this thread Emil goes over some of the key events in January and discusses some possible future developments. In addition to these I would also pay special attention to the developing Russian bridgeheads across Oskil near Dvorichna, 7/
Vellyka Novosilka and Kurakhove have fallen, and Russians continue their offensive towards Pokrovsk.
In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/
In this thread I will examine what is to be expected of the most critical area of the eastern front in the near future, and what can the Russians realistically achieve. 1/
February 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
bsky.app/profile/emil... In this thread Emil goes over some of the key events in January and discusses some possible future developments. In addition to these I would also pay special attention to the developing Russian bridgeheads across Oskil near Dvorichna, 7/
Overcast and misty/foggy weather hampers air activity and possibly reduces the amount of glide bombing sorties flown by the Russians. The usage of drones is affected by these weather conditions as well, although in this case, the Russians are likely to benefit more. 6/
February 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Overcast and misty/foggy weather hampers air activity and possibly reduces the amount of glide bombing sorties flown by the Russians. The usage of drones is affected by these weather conditions as well, although in this case, the Russians are likely to benefit more. 6/
and begins to run into increasing manpower problems. Quality and quantity of Russian armored vehicles is also continuing to deteriorate, and increasing reliance on light wheeled vehicles could, among other issues, be a source of problem in muddy winter conditions. 5/
February 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
and begins to run into increasing manpower problems. Quality and quantity of Russian armored vehicles is also continuing to deteriorate, and increasing reliance on light wheeled vehicles could, among other issues, be a source of problem in muddy winter conditions. 5/
The likely reasons for this slowdown include the season and once the ground conditions and weather improve, we might see the pace of advance pick up and accelerate once again. But it is also possible that Russia is finally approaching the limits of its recruitment system 4/
February 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
The likely reasons for this slowdown include the season and once the ground conditions and weather improve, we might see the pace of advance pick up and accelerate once again. But it is also possible that Russia is finally approaching the limits of its recruitment system 4/
but at least for the moment the trend is pointing towards eventual stabilization during this spring. Russians will likely try to reverse this course and regain momentum as soon as possible. 3/
February 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
but at least for the moment the trend is pointing towards eventual stabilization during this spring. Russians will likely try to reverse this course and regain momentum as soon as possible. 3/
Compared to 451 and 61 sq kilometers in December respectively. This is a second month in a row of gradually slowing down Russian advance after the high point of November. I would still caution against being overly optimistic towards the overall situation, 2/
February 3, 2025 at 10:43 AM
Compared to 451 and 61 sq kilometers in December respectively. This is a second month in a row of gradually slowing down Russian advance after the high point of November. I would still caution against being overly optimistic towards the overall situation, 2/