IL-09 Poll Updates
@il9forecast.bsky.social
A project by @coleurbanist.bsky.social to model the IL-09 democratic primary
This file has demographic data on a precinct level, my computed progressive score, probabilities that each candidate will win each precinct and their median result in that precinct.
drive.google.com/file/d/1Cs4l...
drive.google.com/file/d/1Cs4l...
drive.google.com
February 10, 2026 at 4:55 AM
This file has demographic data on a precinct level, my computed progressive score, probabilities that each candidate will win each precinct and their median result in that precinct.
drive.google.com/file/d/1Cs4l...
drive.google.com/file/d/1Cs4l...
Uhhh, realized I was working with inherently flawed turnout data. I ended up fixing it! The map looks mostly the same but Biss does win some more precincts in Chicago.
Huge updates to the model including how it fundamentally works, and some more information on the page.
chicagomaps.neocities.org/IL09_precinc...
chicagomaps.neocities.org/IL09_precinc...
IL-09 Democratic Primary Prediction Model v.0.8
chicagomaps.neocities.org
February 10, 2026 at 4:21 AM
Uhhh, realized I was working with inherently flawed turnout data. I ended up fixing it! The map looks mostly the same but Biss does win some more precincts in Chicago.
The hardest part to make sure is correct in the model is to make sure that turnout is reasonably accurate. Unfortunately, turnout varies wildly.
So another future project is to make sure that I can handle different turnout scenarios.
So another future project is to make sure that I can handle different turnout scenarios.
February 10, 2026 at 2:06 AM
The hardest part to make sure is correct in the model is to make sure that turnout is reasonably accurate. Unfortunately, turnout varies wildly.
So another future project is to make sure that I can handle different turnout scenarios.
So another future project is to make sure that I can handle different turnout scenarios.
I want to emphasize the second half of this. The precinct level shadings are purely for fun. If anything of this has any value (doubtful) it is the districtwide stuff.
Especially since individual precincts can be unpredictable
Especially since individual precincts can be unpredictable
This is probably close to the final version but I may make tweaks here and there as I consider other factors that may be relevant.
Don't take this too seriously. Trying to predict individual precincts is kind of absurd but I wanted to get something that looks plausible for fun.
Don't take this too seriously. Trying to predict individual precincts is kind of absurd but I wanted to get something that looks plausible for fun.
February 10, 2026 at 1:50 AM
I want to emphasize the second half of this. The precinct level shadings are purely for fun. If anything of this has any value (doubtful) it is the districtwide stuff.
Especially since individual precincts can be unpredictable
Especially since individual precincts can be unpredictable
Future projects:
⚫️A function to call on election night
⚫️A function to project final results based on results already in
⚫️more sophisticated logic to simulate different turnout scenarios
⚫️open sourcing the project (this one is honestly the lowest priority)
⚫️A function to call on election night
⚫️A function to project final results based on results already in
⚫️more sophisticated logic to simulate different turnout scenarios
⚫️open sourcing the project (this one is honestly the lowest priority)
February 10, 2026 at 1:44 AM
Future projects:
⚫️A function to call on election night
⚫️A function to project final results based on results already in
⚫️more sophisticated logic to simulate different turnout scenarios
⚫️open sourcing the project (this one is honestly the lowest priority)
⚫️A function to call on election night
⚫️A function to project final results based on results already in
⚫️more sophisticated logic to simulate different turnout scenarios
⚫️open sourcing the project (this one is honestly the lowest priority)
Huge updates to the model including how it fundamentally works, and some more information on the page.
chicagomaps.neocities.org/IL09_precinc...
chicagomaps.neocities.org/IL09_precinc...
IL-09 Democratic Primary Prediction Model v.0.8
chicagomaps.neocities.org
February 10, 2026 at 12:08 AM
Huge updates to the model including how it fundamentally works, and some more information on the page.
chicagomaps.neocities.org/IL09_precinc...
chicagomaps.neocities.org/IL09_precinc...