If you picked the winner first (prob 1/3), you lose by switching
If you pick a loser first (prob 2/3), Monty is forced to pick the other loser, and you are left with the winner.
So, if you switch, you win so long as you pick a loser to start with - so 2/3 of the time
If you picked the winner first (prob 1/3), you lose by switching
If you pick a loser first (prob 2/3), Monty is forced to pick the other loser, and you are left with the winner.
So, if you switch, you win so long as you pick a loser to start with - so 2/3 of the time