But for building your own model this is crucial. I realize now my own model a couple of years ago was even worse than I thought 😅 But it did get me to 25k or so, variance in my favor surely

This is great! I remember looking at Watkins and thinking he outperformed assists like crazy. But this explains it. I assume the big data models, like fplreview, takes this into account. Surely?

Love the banter ;-) I didn't know either tbh. Given how many he's taken he is pretty consistent after all.

81.5%, above average, from 54 penalties. Mac Allister has 92.3% from 13. Why do you ask? Curios about statistical significance I bet

Holy! Actually only one point above non-qualification. Hadn't even realized with this boring format

Yeah that should be even better.

No sure about xPensWon but rebound assists could perhaps be done with a regression FPLAssists = f(xA, SoT)? Then you can see if the factor for SoT is statistically significant. If so, good news

Pras chose a very extreme example to try to fool us all :-) Risk is more or less the spread around the mean. But of course there can be scenarios where one option is strictly better (whole distribution pushed upwards), but that has nothing to do with risk per se

I'd choose 2x60% but it is still higher risk, and that is what was being discussed ;-)
See @fpl.datamonkeys.app calculation in the response.
(Just math, in FPL I agree that double/triple is perfectly fine. The risk is dwarfed by all the randomness. Unless protecting a lead in the last GW perhaps)

Sorry, that's not a correct analogy. Doubling up would be like getting two right guesses if the first coin toss comes up heads, zero otherwise. Compared to flipping twice and getting zero, one or two correct (lower probability for two correct, but also lower for zero)

~+27 vs prime is amazing tbh, even with triple captain played. Based solely on this, you've played fantastic and been a little unlucky.
Differentiating between luck and good decisions (against EV) is unfortunately only possible over long periods of time afaik.

This season is cursed. Looking forward to 26/27 after a well deserved break

This makes no sense. Just going to assume it's a joke and move on with my life