Ian Simpson
@iansimpson27.bsky.social
Post-doc in Antarctic weather extremes, FRMetS, long-standing weather enthusiast, chess player, Doom/Quake mapper, also interested in film and classical music and animation.
On this day 30 years ago, I woke up to a covering of snow in South Tyneside. It snowed for much of the morning, and in the afternoon it warmed up a bit near the coast with sleet and hail showers with thunder, but inland the showers stayed as snow, with thundersnow at Newcastle.
November 17, 2025 at 6:27 PM
On this day 30 years ago, I woke up to a covering of snow in South Tyneside. It snowed for much of the morning, and in the afternoon it warmed up a bit near the coast with sleet and hail showers with thunder, but inland the showers stayed as snow, with thundersnow at Newcastle.
Some spectacular cumulonimbus clouds and an equally spectacular sunset sprouted up almost out of nowhere this evening in Lincoln, not long after I had given up on thundery potential for the day. These cells all turned into thunderstorms as they moved away north-eastwards. #lincoln #thunderstorms
August 27, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Some spectacular cumulonimbus clouds and an equally spectacular sunset sprouted up almost out of nowhere this evening in Lincoln, not long after I had given up on thundery potential for the day. These cells all turned into thunderstorms as they moved away north-eastwards. #lincoln #thunderstorms
I do a lot of coding in the Python programming language, which was originally named after Monty Python. Error messages are frequently annoying, but I reckon the following error messages would be fitting in some ways.
July 19, 2025 at 5:27 PM
I do a lot of coding in the Python programming language, which was originally named after Monty Python. Error messages are frequently annoying, but I reckon the following error messages would be fitting in some ways.
There's a saying that if it rains on St Swithin's Day, it will rain for another 40 days. This year it may have some substance as 15 July is bringing a regime shift. But an extreme counterexample was 1995 in Tyneside when there was rain & thunder on 15 July, then virtually no rain for 40 days.
July 15, 2025 at 11:01 AM
There's a saying that if it rains on St Swithin's Day, it will rain for another 40 days. This year it may have some substance as 15 July is bringing a regime shift. But an extreme counterexample was 1995 in Tyneside when there was rain & thunder on 15 July, then virtually no rain for 40 days.
It's highly unlikely to happen given that it's being forecast for 14 days' time, but tonight's GFS 18Z is showing a monster heatwave in mid-July with 41C in East Anglia, minima of 25C around London, and widespread maxima of 43-44C in France, Belgium and the Netherlands.
July 1, 2025 at 11:28 PM
It's highly unlikely to happen given that it's being forecast for 14 days' time, but tonight's GFS 18Z is showing a monster heatwave in mid-July with 41C in East Anglia, minima of 25C around London, and widespread maxima of 43-44C in France, Belgium and the Netherlands.
In the past, snow in May wasn't that unusual in the north. On this day 30 years ago - just a week after a large area of the country hit highs of 25 to 28C - wintry showers fell widely in Scotland and northern England, and a heavy wet snowfall around dawn brought lying snow to the Glasgow area.
May 12, 2025 at 7:21 PM
In the past, snow in May wasn't that unusual in the north. On this day 30 years ago - just a week after a large area of the country hit highs of 25 to 28C - wintry showers fell widely in Scotland and northern England, and a heavy wet snowfall around dawn brought lying snow to the Glasgow area.
On this day 28 years ago there were widespread snow showers. It was the most recent occasion when I saw snow in May. Snow in May on low ground was fairly common in the north until 1997, and happened more occasionally in the south, but it has been rare since.
May 6, 2025 at 9:31 PM
On this day 28 years ago there were widespread snow showers. It was the most recent occasion when I saw snow in May. Snow in May on low ground was fairly common in the north until 1997, and happened more occasionally in the south, but it has been rare since.
A few stills from a lightning capture that I got from a thunderstorm south of Lincoln last Thursday.
May 4, 2025 at 4:49 PM
A few stills from a lightning capture that I got from a thunderstorm south of Lincoln last Thursday.
I don't think I've mentioned this on Bsky yet, I've been pleased to see that Wetterzentrale have quietly updated their ERA synoptic archives to include ERA5 from 1940 to 2024. It's generally a significant improvement over the ERA 20th century reanalysis. Sample chart: easterly on 7 February 1991.
February 11, 2025 at 2:30 AM
I don't think I've mentioned this on Bsky yet, I've been pleased to see that Wetterzentrale have quietly updated their ERA synoptic archives to include ERA5 from 1940 to 2024. It's generally a significant improvement over the ERA 20th century reanalysis. Sample chart: easterly on 7 February 1991.
On 8/9 February 1999, a low pressure system bumping into a cold northerly flow brought widespread snow to England and Wales. As it cleared southwards, snow showers followed into most eastern coastal areas, but inland it became dry. It was the most substantial cold spell in a generally mild winter.
February 9, 2025 at 6:22 PM
On 8/9 February 1999, a low pressure system bumping into a cold northerly flow brought widespread snow to England and Wales. As it cleared southwards, snow showers followed into most eastern coastal areas, but inland it became dry. It was the most substantial cold spell in a generally mild winter.
Some exceptional warmth being modelled for the high Arctic into the beginning of next week.
January 31, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Some exceptional warmth being modelled for the high Arctic into the beginning of next week.
Now coming into T+6 hours and still staggeringly high winds forecast for Ireland. Figures are in km/h, so 220km/h west of Ireland is approximately 140mph. Could be record breaking winds especially near Ireland's west coast. For most of the mainland looks like being up to 100mph.
January 23, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Now coming into T+6 hours and still staggeringly high winds forecast for Ireland. Figures are in km/h, so 220km/h west of Ireland is approximately 140mph. Could be record breaking winds especially near Ireland's west coast. For most of the mainland looks like being up to 100mph.
Friday's storm isn't quite as scary looking as I just indicated because Wetterzentrale seems to have a glitch with the wind gusts - the consensus among other sites is for max gusts of 110-130mph to the west of Ireland and onto the west coast. Still scary by most standards though.
January 23, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Friday's storm isn't quite as scary looking as I just indicated because Wetterzentrale seems to have a glitch with the wind gusts - the consensus among other sites is for max gusts of 110-130mph to the west of Ireland and onto the west coast. Still scary by most standards though.
Very scary looking storm coming up for Ireland and possibly parts of N England on Friday. Forecast gusts of 200 knots (230mph) west of Ireland and 130-140 knots (150-160mph) over the mainland is what I usually see when the GFS goes off on one at T+240+. But this is a 36 hour forecast from ECMWF...
January 22, 2025 at 11:46 PM
Very scary looking storm coming up for Ireland and possibly parts of N England on Friday. Forecast gusts of 200 knots (230mph) west of Ireland and 130-140 knots (150-160mph) over the mainland is what I usually see when the GFS goes off on one at T+240+. But this is a 36 hour forecast from ECMWF...
Back from Christmas holidays where I temporarily lost my Bluesky login. Chance of some snow here in Lincoln but probably overnight, meaning I might have to stay up into the early hours to see it. Back to rain here by 9am tomorrow, but could be substantial snow in the north of England tomorrow.
January 4, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Back from Christmas holidays where I temporarily lost my Bluesky login. Chance of some snow here in Lincoln but probably overnight, meaning I might have to stay up into the early hours to see it. Back to rain here by 9am tomorrow, but could be substantial snow in the north of England tomorrow.
Rare red weather warnings are out for Storm Darragh tomorrow. I'm not surprised, the storm looks particularly vicious.
December 6, 2024 at 3:28 PM
Rare red weather warnings are out for Storm Darragh tomorrow. I'm not surprised, the storm looks particularly vicious.
These are some recent photos from my part of downhill Lincoln. I really hadn't been expecting anything like this!
November 19, 2024 at 12:05 AM
These are some recent photos from my part of downhill Lincoln. I really hadn't been expecting anything like this!
With Britain entering a cold snap, I've been recalling the cold snap around 17 November 1995. In Cleadon in Tyne & Wear I woke up to a covering of snow that morning. In the afternoon it warmed up a bit near the coast with hail and sleet showers accompanied by thunder, but stayed as snow inland.
November 17, 2024 at 6:11 PM
With Britain entering a cold snap, I've been recalling the cold snap around 17 November 1995. In Cleadon in Tyne & Wear I woke up to a covering of snow that morning. In the afternoon it warmed up a bit near the coast with hail and sleet showers accompanied by thunder, but stayed as snow inland.
Some substantial divergences in the model runs for next Monday/Tuesday. All three of the main models have Monday's snow mainly over N England and into S Scotland. But GFS has snow into the Midlands early Tuesday, UKMO/ECM less so. UKMO model has a very scary low, severe winds in the North Sea.
November 15, 2024 at 6:22 PM
Some substantial divergences in the model runs for next Monday/Tuesday. All three of the main models have Monday's snow mainly over N England and into S Scotland. But GFS has snow into the Midlands early Tuesday, UKMO/ECM less so. UKMO model has a very scary low, severe winds in the North Sea.
A very memorable November cold snap for me was on 8/9 November 2001. I didn't get much lying snow but in South Tyneside the weather was very dramatic. Winds got gusty at times, there was a thunderstorm with large hail at 07:30 on 8th, and a dusting of snow/hail early on 8th and of snow early on 9th.
November 8, 2024 at 8:00 PM
A very memorable November cold snap for me was on 8/9 November 2001. I didn't get much lying snow but in South Tyneside the weather was very dramatic. Winds got gusty at times, there was a thunderstorm with large hail at 07:30 on 8th, and a dusting of snow/hail early on 8th and of snow early on 9th.
It's unlikely to come off as modelled at this range, but tonight's GFS 12Z run for 18 November 2024 produced a chart which is strikingly similar to the one for 25 November 2005, which delivered heavy disruptive snowfalls to the south-west.
November 7, 2024 at 9:08 PM
It's unlikely to come off as modelled at this range, but tonight's GFS 12Z run for 18 November 2024 produced a chart which is strikingly similar to the one for 25 November 2005, which delivered heavy disruptive snowfalls to the south-west.
This was last Friday's sunset in Lincoln, I just got around to uploading it from my digital camera.
November 4, 2024 at 9:37 PM
This was last Friday's sunset in Lincoln, I just got around to uploading it from my digital camera.
It feels like Groundhog Day on the latest GFS run. Three remarkably similar charts at T+66 hours, T+144 and T+294, with the high pressure area repeatedly drawn to the same position.
October 28, 2024 at 7:24 PM
It feels like Groundhog Day on the latest GFS run. Three remarkably similar charts at T+66 hours, T+144 and T+294, with the high pressure area repeatedly drawn to the same position.
Another marked feature of the medium range forecast outputs is anomalous warmth over much of the Arctic into the beginning of November. If this keeps up for a while, any northerlies are unlikely to be cold for the time of year unless we pick up a scoop of cold air from Greenland.
October 25, 2024 at 10:53 PM
Another marked feature of the medium range forecast outputs is anomalous warmth over much of the Arctic into the beginning of November. If this keeps up for a while, any northerlies are unlikely to be cold for the time of year unless we pick up a scoop of cold air from Greenland.
Interesting ECMWF operational run this evening, bringing most of Britain quite a potent northerly for the beginning of November, although the ensemble mean chart indicates that it was probably an outlier against the other ensembles.
October 25, 2024 at 10:24 PM
Interesting ECMWF operational run this evening, bringing most of Britain quite a potent northerly for the beginning of November, although the ensemble mean chart indicates that it was probably an outlier against the other ensembles.