Snapback and Iranian threats re the NPT and safeguards are likely to be the two key elements of diplomatic leverage and negotiation in the months ahead.

Snapback was built into the JCPOA and embedded in UNSCR 2231. It allows JCPOA participants to reintroduce the previous UNSCRs on Iran in case of non-compliance. If Iran withdraws from NPT or hides the HEU, snapback should be triggered. But we only have until October.

I also deleted the diplomacy section. Alas.

And no, not job done. You must deal with the HEU!

Israel took out the power supplies to the site which the basis for the non-operational assessment. There is a question about damage to the centrifuges, but I think I saw earlier that Israel struck again. I'll add a site analysis to the live situation briefing page soon (maybe tomorrow though).

nice. thanks kindly!

Here's the headline assessment (sorry text too long for 1 post)

And of course, yes, I understand that Iran may not agree to this. But since the HEU situation is untenable, I believe the US would act.

It seems Iran is barrier to such an agreement right now. While I get Iran's principled position, reality is Iran created an untenable situation with the HEU. It has 400kgs of 60% currently outside international verification - enough for 10 weapons. This must be addressed.

Beyond that, the nuclear priority is to get the HEU out the country, to agree limits on enrichment, and a resumption of JCPOA like verification measures. Other priorities relate to missiles. Presumably in exchange for linked sanctions relief. An agreement still possible.

That's not what I mean or the point. There is 10 weapons worth of material that must be addressed. It can be done through diplomacy or military action. But it must be addressed. So far diplomacy is not solving it. It's not about that Israel did. It's about where we stand today.