Would such a bet pay out with a negative probability? 😏

Jokes aside, there’s an active market for freight space traded by commodity firms. Surely a bet could be constructed through trading O&G/commodity securities as firms experience higher inventory carry costs (due to increased storage demand)

Bringing you the latest in “preferences over attributes aren’t always convex…”

Who usually selects into the market for political betting? Could totally be wrong, but I’d be surprised if that selection is an unbiased sample of the larger population. Perhaps those betting have already priced a cut into their expectations?

Ok Mr. Bellman, do you have a convex set though 👀

I’m having a much better time on here than I did on Twitter (or “X”). The differences are very noticeable! I hope more of Econ Twitter moves here…