I hope people will give it a read. And I wanted to thank folks who reached out to me on this. I'm available at imarlow1@bloomberg.net and on Signal at iainmarlow.24

In short, the canceled USAID projects show the shift in US focus away from longer-term health/education spending, and show China's willingness to jump in when the US pulls out -- and there are some other examples of this in Africa and South Asia, as well.

“Despite changes in the US approach to foreign assistance, we hope to see our relationship with Cambodia productively mature as we make America safer, stronger and more prosperous,” the State Department told me in a statement

In a statement, the State Department said it was funding projects that made America "safer, stronger, and more prosperous," citing the Rubio mantra from his confirmation hearing, where he vowed to examine every foreign aid dollar (though he didn't say then he'd abolish USAID)

Pete Marocco, the Trump appointee who led USAID's dismantling, was asked specifically about the Cambodia projects in a closed-door hearing earlier this month, but brushed aside concerns about China gaining influence as the US withdraws, one person familiar told me.

At the same time, while China is ready to exploit Trump's slashing of foreign aid in certain strategic areas, there's no way Beijing will make up the global health funding shortfall,
Yanzhong Huang and @tombollyky.bsky.social write in a great piece here:

www.foreignaffairs.com/china/coming...

A US ambassador's "leverage and ability to make a difference in terms of foreign policy in that country is backed up by the money that they bring, and in the Global South that money is primarily the money that USAID has," retired USAID veteran Diana Putman told me

The USAID funds and the direct engagement inherent in running on-the-ground programs in the developing world gave USAID staff key relationships that other diplomats -- both foreign and US -- may not have had, USAID veterans have told me.

That's quite apart from the millions of lives saved, obviously, but more on that in a minute.

While Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others have said they're cutting aid that doesn't directly benefit American interests, many have pointed out the national security dimension of the $40 billion+ that USAID distributed around the world annually

UNICEF said the deal was struck with China in 2024 and only announced this month (after Trump's USAID cuts).

A Cambodian govt spokesman was a bit more explicit, when asked: "If one partner withdraws support, we seek to find another partner to replace it.”

“It’s a diplomatic gift” to China, said Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development. "If they put a small amount of money into a health and education project and say, ‘Look, we’re ramping up,’ that does seem to be a bit of a publicity gift for them."

Why does this matter? Aside from the likely gap in US and Chinese funding, the swift Chinese announcement confirms fears among US lawmakers that Beijing was ready to exploit the void left by canceled USAID funding, leading to a loss of US leverage and influence.

Both focused on “inclusive education” targeting the “most vulnerable children” and used a so-called nurturing care framework, according to news releases and procurement documents. Both provided school materials, hand-washing supplies and had other similarities, the people said.

The USAID health/education projects were worth $40 million. And while China’s announcement didn’t include a dollar figure, the Chinese money funds the same types of initiatives and development goals as the US efforts, according to two people familiar with the projects