@hunanceltic.bsky.social
My first round of NCAA predictions on Substack had a positive ROI! Check out my pick for the CFP Championship game! open.substack.com/pub/lauerpow...
Baro 2025 CFP Championship Prediction
Some won, some lost, but the process looked good on all of the blog's first bets
open.substack.com
January 12, 2026 at 5:31 PM
My first round of NCAA predictions on Substack had a positive ROI! Check out my pick for the CFP Championship game! open.substack.com/pub/lauerpow...
Bears ML hit yesterday! Chargers can be boosted into Baro Bet range and SF has gone deep into that territory this week. Check out all my predictions here: lauerpower.substack.com/p/lauers-sta...
January 11, 2026 at 3:30 PM
Bears ML hit yesterday! Chargers can be boosted into Baro Bet range and SF has gone deep into that territory this week. Check out all my predictions here: lauerpower.substack.com/p/lauers-sta...
Baro Backs Boosted Bears Bet!
With the FanDuel 30% boost on 3 leg same game parlays, I was able to craft this in order to get positive EV on betting on the Bears today according to my Baro model. lauerpower.substack.com/p/lauers-sta...
With the FanDuel 30% boost on 3 leg same game parlays, I was able to craft this in order to get positive EV on betting on the Bears today according to my Baro model. lauerpower.substack.com/p/lauers-sta...
January 10, 2026 at 6:33 PM
Baro Backs Boosted Bears Bet!
With the FanDuel 30% boost on 3 leg same game parlays, I was able to craft this in order to get positive EV on betting on the Bears today according to my Baro model. lauerpower.substack.com/p/lauers-sta...
With the FanDuel 30% boost on 3 leg same game parlays, I was able to craft this in order to get positive EV on betting on the Bears today according to my Baro model. lauerpower.substack.com/p/lauers-sta...
Rough finish for the Rebels, heckuva game for both teams! While both bets lost (Ole Miss +3.5 and +180), the process was good.
Baro gave Ole Miss a 45% chance and to bet at 40%; we got it at 36%. The bet wasn’t expected to win, but over time these edges add up.
Let’s go Hoosiers!
bit.ly/49o6t0s
Baro gave Ole Miss a 45% chance and to bet at 40%; we got it at 36%. The bet wasn’t expected to win, but over time these edges add up.
Let’s go Hoosiers!
bit.ly/49o6t0s
2025 CFP Semi-Final Baro Report
CFP Picks and NCAA Football Power Rankings!
lauerpower.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 4:40 AM
Rough finish for the Rebels, heckuva game for both teams! While both bets lost (Ole Miss +3.5 and +180), the process was good.
Baro gave Ole Miss a 45% chance and to bet at 40%; we got it at 36%. The bet wasn’t expected to win, but over time these edges add up.
Let’s go Hoosiers!
bit.ly/49o6t0s
Baro gave Ole Miss a 45% chance and to bet at 40%; we got it at 36%. The bet wasn’t expected to win, but over time these edges add up.
Let’s go Hoosiers!
bit.ly/49o6t0s
Last chance bets for tonight:
Ole Miss +2.5 or higher (currently +3.5)
Ole Miss +150 or higher (may require boosting)
@therebelwalk.bsky.social
lauerpower.substack.com/p/2025-cfp-s...
Ole Miss +2.5 or higher (currently +3.5)
Ole Miss +150 or higher (may require boosting)
@therebelwalk.bsky.social
lauerpower.substack.com/p/2025-cfp-s...
2025 CFP Semi-Final Baro Report
CFP Picks and NCAA Football Power Rankings!
lauerpower.substack.com
January 9, 2026 at 12:02 AM
Last chance bets for tonight:
Ole Miss +2.5 or higher (currently +3.5)
Ole Miss +150 or higher (may require boosting)
@therebelwalk.bsky.social
lauerpower.substack.com/p/2025-cfp-s...
Ole Miss +2.5 or higher (currently +3.5)
Ole Miss +150 or higher (may require boosting)
@therebelwalk.bsky.social
lauerpower.substack.com/p/2025-cfp-s...
ALERT: FD has a 30% boost for tonight.
My Baro Model Target for the Ole Miss ML was +150. The market was a PASS at +138, but the boost moves it to +180.
We now have clear Positive EV on the Rebels to win outright.
My robust statistical breakdown here: lauerpower.substack.com/p/2025-cfp-s... #CFP
My Baro Model Target for the Ole Miss ML was +150. The market was a PASS at +138, but the boost moves it to +180.
We now have clear Positive EV on the Rebels to win outright.
My robust statistical breakdown here: lauerpower.substack.com/p/2025-cfp-s... #CFP
2025 CFP Semi-Final Baro Report
CFP Picks and NCAA Football Power Rankings!
lauerpower.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 5:33 PM
ALERT: FD has a 30% boost for tonight.
My Baro Model Target for the Ole Miss ML was +150. The market was a PASS at +138, but the boost moves it to +180.
We now have clear Positive EV on the Rebels to win outright.
My robust statistical breakdown here: lauerpower.substack.com/p/2025-cfp-s... #CFP
My Baro Model Target for the Ole Miss ML was +150. The market was a PASS at +138, but the boost moves it to +180.
We now have clear Positive EV on the Rebels to win outright.
My robust statistical breakdown here: lauerpower.substack.com/p/2025-cfp-s... #CFP
Should the Eagles be favored over SF? Are the Broncos even an above average team? I applied my robust statistical model to the NFL and found some value picks for Wild Card weekend. Check out the first edition of Lauer's Statistical Power: open.substack.com/pub/lauerpow...
Lauer’s Statistical Power: The Baro 2025 Wild Card Report
No time for intros, just get to the picks!
open.substack.com
January 8, 2026 at 12:14 AM
Should the Eagles be favored over SF? Are the Broncos even an above average team? I applied my robust statistical model to the NFL and found some value picks for Wild Card weekend. Check out the first edition of Lauer's Statistical Power: open.substack.com/pub/lauerpow...
@minakimes.bsky.social you probably have watched enough film to confirm this: did Aaron Rodgers dye his beard this week? I feel like he was going grayer than what I'm seeing
January 5, 2026 at 2:42 AM
@minakimes.bsky.social you probably have watched enough film to confirm this: did Aaron Rodgers dye his beard this week? I feel like he was going grayer than what I'm seeing
@cjzero.bsky.social I heard about back-to-back fake punts by the Colts, you got that please?
January 4, 2026 at 8:27 PM
@cjzero.bsky.social I heard about back-to-back fake punts by the Colts, you got that please?
@rodger.bsky.social I understand that you are probably watching the Knicks but also hope you are watching this silly bowl game
December 17, 2025 at 2:51 AM
@rodger.bsky.social I understand that you are probably watching the Knicks but also hope you are watching this silly bowl game
@nfl4th.com What were the percentages on that weird 4th-and-8 Arizona went for at the end instead of taking the FG?
November 4, 2025 at 4:18 AM
@nfl4th.com What were the percentages on that weird 4th-and-8 Arizona went for at the end instead of taking the FG?
My favorite NFL Cartoonist! Please check out his stuff and subscribe to his Patreon if you like it
LIFE UPDATE
So I got laid off yesterday ☹️
I'm hoping to take this time to put more effort into the Draw Play as a whole, so I am re-opening my Patreon and commissions with renewed vigor. I gave more detail on my site itself:
www.thedrawplay.com/comic/placeh...
So I got laid off yesterday ☹️
I'm hoping to take this time to put more effort into the Draw Play as a whole, so I am re-opening my Patreon and commissions with renewed vigor. I gave more detail on my site itself:
www.thedrawplay.com/comic/placeh...
SITE NEWS AND UPDATE - The Draw Play
Dave lives on Six and Eleven Street
www.thedrawplay.com
October 10, 2025 at 6:46 PM
My favorite NFL Cartoonist! Please check out his stuff and subscribe to his Patreon if you like it
Reposted
Let me tell you a beautiful story about this couch. 🧵
IG msviciousdesign
IG msviciousdesign
September 26, 2025 at 11:58 PM
Let me tell you a beautiful story about this couch. 🧵
IG msviciousdesign
IG msviciousdesign
@benjaminsolak.bsky.social no skeets since Thursday, R U OK?
September 17, 2025 at 2:28 PM
@benjaminsolak.bsky.social no skeets since Thursday, R U OK?
@miketanier.bsky.social Cincy vs Minny is a showdown of TWO Veteran Backup QBs Making Their First Starts TM! What's do we do???
September 17, 2025 at 12:15 AM
@miketanier.bsky.social Cincy vs Minny is a showdown of TWO Veteran Backup QBs Making Their First Starts TM! What's do we do???
@alexckaufman.bsky.social Hello! I read your reports on Geothermal energy (via @walthickey.bsky.social) and they seem exciting! I have not kept up on fracking technology but remember from (probably a decade ago) that it was causing earthquakes. Has that been resolved? Is that a risk with geothermal?
June 2, 2025 at 3:40 PM
@alexckaufman.bsky.social Hello! I read your reports on Geothermal energy (via @walthickey.bsky.social) and they seem exciting! I have not kept up on fracking technology but remember from (probably a decade ago) that it was causing earthquakes. Has that been resolved? Is that a risk with geothermal?
@zachweinersmith.bsky.social I'm getting this error in the comments, which is unfortunate, because I think SMBC has the best comments on the web
April 27, 2025 at 2:34 PM
@zachweinersmith.bsky.social I'm getting this error in the comments, which is unfortunate, because I think SMBC has the best comments on the web
I have historically believed 2 things: 1) the president doesn't control the economy and 2) the stock market isn't the economy. Trump is really going to test my beliefs
April 4, 2025 at 10:18 PM
I have historically believed 2 things: 1) the president doesn't control the economy and 2) the stock market isn't the economy. Trump is really going to test my beliefs
@cjzero.bsky.social do you have a clip of that mentalist who guessed Kenny's ATM PIN (and read Ernie and Clark's minds) at the Purdue halftime on CBS? I can't find it anywhere and it blew my mind
March 20, 2025 at 5:44 PM
@cjzero.bsky.social do you have a clip of that mentalist who guessed Kenny's ATM PIN (and read Ernie and Clark's minds) at the Purdue halftime on CBS? I can't find it anywhere and it blew my mind
@howardbeck.bsky.social here's a list of subtle changes to the NBA to support expansion:
* Expand the NBA to 40 teams
* Cut it in half
* Introduce relegation
* Every team plays home/away for a total of 38 games
* Top 16 make the playoffs
* Bottom 4 relegated
* 2 seasons per year Spring/Fall
Easy!
* Expand the NBA to 40 teams
* Cut it in half
* Introduce relegation
* Every team plays home/away for a total of 38 games
* Top 16 make the playoffs
* Bottom 4 relegated
* 2 seasons per year Spring/Fall
Easy!
February 18, 2025 at 4:53 PM
@howardbeck.bsky.social here's a list of subtle changes to the NBA to support expansion:
* Expand the NBA to 40 teams
* Cut it in half
* Introduce relegation
* Every team plays home/away for a total of 38 games
* Top 16 make the playoffs
* Bottom 4 relegated
* 2 seasons per year Spring/Fall
Easy!
* Expand the NBA to 40 teams
* Cut it in half
* Introduce relegation
* Every team plays home/away for a total of 38 games
* Top 16 make the playoffs
* Bottom 4 relegated
* 2 seasons per year Spring/Fall
Easy!
@nflbluesky.bsky.social should pay me for this idea: There are 17 games in a season, give every team one neutral site game so that every team plays 8 home and away and 1 neutral. They don't have to be overseas! Buffalo-Detroit could be in Toronto. Rams-Chiefs in St. Louis.
January 15, 2025 at 4:38 PM
@nflbluesky.bsky.social should pay me for this idea: There are 17 games in a season, give every team one neutral site game so that every team plays 8 home and away and 1 neutral. They don't have to be overseas! Buffalo-Detroit could be in Toronto. Rams-Chiefs in St. Louis.
@rbsdm.com should Pitt's have gone for 2 to cut the lead to 4? Can 4th down bot check that too? It might not have mattered but they'll need a two later anyways to go up 3 (or if the Bengals kick a FG)
January 5, 2025 at 3:45 AM
@rbsdm.com should Pitt's have gone for 2 to cut the lead to 4? Can 4th down bot check that too? It might not have mattered but they'll need a two later anyways to go up 3 (or if the Bengals kick a FG)
Reposted
The censorship algorithm on Twitter reduced our audience by roughly 95%, and seriously, who does that to a wildlife biology & advocacy group ?
So we moved 😇 over here to BlueSky
If you could, please help us regain our following
Follow
Retweet and
Repeat ;-)
Together we can change the world.
So we moved 😇 over here to BlueSky
If you could, please help us regain our following
Follow
Retweet and
Repeat ;-)
Together we can change the world.
January 4, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The censorship algorithm on Twitter reduced our audience by roughly 95%, and seriously, who does that to a wildlife biology & advocacy group ?
So we moved 😇 over here to BlueSky
If you could, please help us regain our following
Follow
Retweet and
Repeat ;-)
Together we can change the world.
So we moved 😇 over here to BlueSky
If you could, please help us regain our following
Follow
Retweet and
Repeat ;-)
Together we can change the world.
I'm not great at live tweeting, but on my group thread I noted during the TD that put Texas up 15 that they should go for 2 to go up 3 scores. That might have helped them win in regulation! I'm sure there are some college football people who I should follow who said the same thing.
January 2, 2025 at 3:03 PM
I'm not great at live tweeting, but on my group thread I noted during the TD that put Texas up 15 that they should go for 2 to go up 3 scores. That might have helped them win in regulation! I'm sure there are some college football people who I should follow who said the same thing.
Picks for today (all ML)
ARZ over SEA -104
Both of my models have ARZ as a considerable favorite is this one
NE over MIA +300
DAL over WAS +420
NYG over TB +220
Both models like these lines relative to predictions. Give a 70% chance of any of these hitting and netting positive across all 3 bets.
ARZ over SEA -104
Both of my models have ARZ as a considerable favorite is this one
NE over MIA +300
DAL over WAS +420
NYG over TB +220
Both models like these lines relative to predictions. Give a 70% chance of any of these hitting and netting positive across all 3 bets.
November 24, 2024 at 4:52 PM
Picks for today (all ML)
ARZ over SEA -104
Both of my models have ARZ as a considerable favorite is this one
NE over MIA +300
DAL over WAS +420
NYG over TB +220
Both models like these lines relative to predictions. Give a 70% chance of any of these hitting and netting positive across all 3 bets.
ARZ over SEA -104
Both of my models have ARZ as a considerable favorite is this one
NE over MIA +300
DAL over WAS +420
NYG over TB +220
Both models like these lines relative to predictions. Give a 70% chance of any of these hitting and netting positive across all 3 bets.