Eastern European setting stone houses and shiny range rovers driving through cobbled courtyards is such a generic scene in every American “thriller” production that there can actually be just a hotkey command to incorporate it into any script

Came across a remarkable stat in an article - 15,000 private funds were launched in last 5y and more than 40,000 total in the market as of last y. Many of them probably personal playthings, but nonetheless the rapid proliferation is something

Broad credit (CDX) has tightened by 40% since their end of q3 wides last y

You don’t need research papers for these simple items

-Fed cut off the deep left tail of corp defaults when they crossed a line to buy credit in 2020

-Crossed another line in 2023 and told you they wont let “the system” fail for want of liquidity

=> Not worth it chasing ghosts of past mkt regimes

Summer finally here - beautiful weather

For context, even during the famous December 2018 collapse and then pivot, credit spreads didn’t blow out past 200 (or 2% over Tsy)

We have already hit near 200 bps twice last year (end June and then Oct) and didn’t get anywhere near there YTD 23 despite stresses in financials (biggest IG sector)

Ppl focus on stocks all the time for sentiment, but you have to wonder what the wealth effect from cash sitting and compounding at 4-5% (w reinvestment turned on) will be by the end of this year

First tweet on bluesky - “hello world” :)