Holger Zschaepitz
@holger--zschaepitz.bsky.social
Holger Zschäpitz is market maniac
and Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addiction to debt.
and Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addiction to debt.
Fed cuts rate by 25bps as expected w/one dovish dissent. But forward guidance in dovish direction. Markets are pricing in additional 2.5 cuts by the end of the year.
September 18, 2025 at 7:23 AM
Fed cuts rate by 25bps as expected w/one dovish dissent. But forward guidance in dovish direction. Markets are pricing in additional 2.5 cuts by the end of the year.
Good Morning from Germany, where experts have sharply cut their forecasts for electricity demand. Since prosperity usually goes hand in hand w/power consumption, the lower outlook for electricity demand also signals a downgrade in Germany’s growth prospects.
September 16, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Good Morning from Germany, where experts have sharply cut their forecasts for electricity demand. Since prosperity usually goes hand in hand w/power consumption, the lower outlook for electricity demand also signals a downgrade in Germany’s growth prospects.
As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. The latest Bank of America fund manager survey brings back memories of Chuck Prince. Most fund managers admit markets look overpriced. Yet–they keep on dancing.
September 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM
As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. The latest Bank of America fund manager survey brings back memories of Chuck Prince. Most fund managers admit markets look overpriced. Yet–they keep on dancing.
Etablierte Parteien in Deutschland verlieren in Landtagswahlen. Die rechtsextreme AfD verdreifacht sich auf 16,5%. Ein Schlag für Kanzler Friedrich Merz, der eine "Reformoffensive" versprochen hatte.
September 14, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Etablierte Parteien in Deutschland verlieren in Landtagswahlen. Die rechtsextreme AfD verdreifacht sich auf 16,5%. Ein Schlag für Kanzler Friedrich Merz, der eine "Reformoffensive" versprochen hatte.
#ECB ups inflation outlook for 2025, 2026, cuts it for 2027. 2025 Inflation forecast now 2.1% (from 2%), 2026 inflation forecast now 1.7%; (prior forecast 1.6%). ECB sees 2027 at 1.9% (prior estimates 2%).
September 11, 2025 at 5:57 PM
#ECB ups inflation outlook for 2025, 2026, cuts it for 2027. 2025 Inflation forecast now 2.1% (from 2%), 2026 inflation forecast now 1.7%; (prior forecast 1.6%). ECB sees 2027 at 1.9% (prior estimates 2%).
#ECB leaves rates unchanged as expected. Depo rate at 2%. Updates growth and inflation projections. Key move is 2027 inflation outlook cut to 1.9% from 2%
September 11, 2025 at 2:29 PM
#ECB leaves rates unchanged as expected. Depo rate at 2%. Updates growth and inflation projections. Key move is 2027 inflation outlook cut to 1.9% from 2%
G7 govt debt levels becoming a growing concern for investors as yields creep higher on the back of extreme fiscal imbalances, political instability, and elevated inflation, w/a particular focus on France, the UK, the US, and Japan. (HT
@knowledge_vital
) reuters.com/markets/euro...
@knowledge_vital
) reuters.com/markets/euro...
September 11, 2025 at 1:23 PM
G7 govt debt levels becoming a growing concern for investors as yields creep higher on the back of extreme fiscal imbalances, political instability, and elevated inflation, w/a particular focus on France, the UK, the US, and Japan. (HT
@knowledge_vital
) reuters.com/markets/euro...
@knowledge_vital
) reuters.com/markets/euro...
Good Morning from #Germany on ECB Day! Acc to the Taylor Rule – which gauges where interest rates should be based on inflation & employment – rates here are about 1.6ppts too low. That implies the next move should be upward. At least, no further reduction is expected for today.
September 11, 2025 at 11:05 AM
Good Morning from #Germany on ECB Day! Acc to the Taylor Rule – which gauges where interest rates should be based on inflation & employment – rates here are about 1.6ppts too low. That implies the next move should be upward. At least, no further reduction is expected for today.
Larry Ellison has become the world's richest person with $393 billion, surpassing Elon Musk after Oracle’s strong earnings added $101 billion to his wealth.
September 10, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Larry Ellison has become the world's richest person with $393 billion, surpassing Elon Musk after Oracle’s strong earnings added $101 billion to his wealth.
Oracle's market value surged by $200 billion after revealing nearly $500 billion in backlogged revenue. With an $881 billion market cap, it is now the world's 12th-largest company. Founder Larry Ellison’s fortune rose to $295 billion, making him the second-richest person after Elon Musk.
September 10, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Oracle's market value surged by $200 billion after revealing nearly $500 billion in backlogged revenue. With an $881 billion market cap, it is now the world's 12th-largest company. Founder Larry Ellison’s fortune rose to $295 billion, making him the second-richest person after Elon Musk.
Good Morning from Germany, where the real estate recovery has hit a pause. In August, prices for new builds fell 0.5% MoM, while existing homes edged up 0.3%. Overall, the index slipped 0.1% MoM, partly due to the usual summer slowdown in property transactions.
September 10, 2025 at 12:12 PM
Good Morning from Germany, where the real estate recovery has hit a pause. In August, prices for new builds fell 0.5% MoM, while existing homes edged up 0.3%. Overall, the index slipped 0.1% MoM, partly due to the usual summer slowdown in property transactions.
Good Morning from Germany, where the trade surplus dropped to $14.7bn in July; the lowest level this year as exports fell much more sharply than imports.
September 9, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Good Morning from Germany, where the trade surplus dropped to $14.7bn in July; the lowest level this year as exports fell much more sharply than imports.
The next Euro crisis cannot be gauged by the Euro-Dollar exchange rate, but rather by the exchange rate against the Swiss franc. The European currency has lost ground in this regard this year.
September 9, 2025 at 7:54 AM
The next Euro crisis cannot be gauged by the Euro-Dollar exchange rate, but rather by the exchange rate against the Swiss franc. The European currency has lost ground in this regard this year.
Mind the Gap: Gold prices have climbed to new record highs, but gold mining stocks haven’t kept up. In fact, mining shares have been lagging well behind, a trend that has persisted since 2013.
September 8, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Mind the Gap: Gold prices have climbed to new record highs, but gold mining stocks haven’t kept up. In fact, mining shares have been lagging well behind, a trend that has persisted since 2013.
German industrial output rose 1.3% in July, its first increase since March. The rebound was driven by a 9.5% surge in mechanical engineering, along with gains in autos and pharmaceuticals, though energy output fell.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
September 8, 2025 at 11:43 AM
German industrial output rose 1.3% in July, its first increase since March. The rebound was driven by a 9.5% surge in mechanical engineering, along with gains in autos and pharmaceuticals, though energy output fell.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
Auf der Münchner Automesse ziehen Deutschlands Top-Autobauer mit neuen Elektroautos nach, um der wachsenden Konkurrenz aus China zu begegnen. Trotz Stagnation sind deutsche Hersteller – mit Ausnahme von BYD – in puncto Börsenwert noch vorne.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
September 7, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Auf der Münchner Automesse ziehen Deutschlands Top-Autobauer mit neuen Elektroautos nach, um der wachsenden Konkurrenz aus China zu begegnen. Trotz Stagnation sind deutsche Hersteller – mit Ausnahme von BYD – in puncto Börsenwert noch vorne.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
Guten Morgen. Deutschland plant bis zu 71 neue Gaskraftwerke für die Stromsicherheit bis 2035. Die Kapazität von 22-36 GW soll Atom- und Kohleausstieg ausgleichen und erneuerbare Energien absichern. Der Bedarf ist deutlich über frühere Prognosen gestiegen.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
September 6, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Guten Morgen. Deutschland plant bis zu 71 neue Gaskraftwerke für die Stromsicherheit bis 2035. Die Kapazität von 22-36 GW soll Atom- und Kohleausstieg ausgleichen und erneuerbare Energien absichern. Der Bedarf ist deutlich über frühere Prognosen gestiegen.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/
US job growth slowed in Aug. Payrolls rose just 22k; unemployment hit 4.3%. But the big surprise was in revisions: June employment fell by 13k, ending a 53-month streak of continuous job growth—a major turning point for the labor market.
September 5, 2025 at 5:50 PM
US job growth slowed in Aug. Payrolls rose just 22k; unemployment hit 4.3%. But the big surprise was in revisions: June employment fell by 13k, ending a 53-month streak of continuous job growth—a major turning point for the labor market.
In the AI race between Alphabet and Microsoft, Alphabet is once again clearly ahead. ChatGPT's stock has risen nearly 128% since its launch, while Microsoft's share price has only increased 98%.
September 4, 2025 at 5:24 PM
In the AI race between Alphabet and Microsoft, Alphabet is once again clearly ahead. ChatGPT's stock has risen nearly 128% since its launch, while Microsoft's share price has only increased 98%.
In the AI race between Alphabet and Microsoft, Alphabet is once again clearly ahead. ChatGPT's stock has risen nearly 128% since its launch, while Microsoft's share price has only increased 98%.
September 3, 2025 at 5:13 PM
In the AI race between Alphabet and Microsoft, Alphabet is once again clearly ahead. ChatGPT's stock has risen nearly 128% since its launch, while Microsoft's share price has only increased 98%.
Spain's debt >100% of GDP but falling, projected <100% by 2027. Driven by growth, spending, EU funds, immigration, and tourism. Risks: moral hazard from state's regional debt takeover (e.g., €83bn in 2025) and NATO-related uncertainty.
September 3, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Spain's debt >100% of GDP but falling, projected <100% by 2027. Driven by growth, spending, EU funds, immigration, and tourism. Risks: moral hazard from state's regional debt takeover (e.g., €83bn in 2025) and NATO-related uncertainty.