HoH Bracketology
@hohbracketology.bsky.social
A top 20 bracketology account in 2025, and the bracket matrix's number 2 new bracketology account
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One final bracket for the calm before the storm. March Madness is less than 30 minutes away, and had a ton of fun building the model and following college basketball. Enjoy the selection show!
Year 1's entry finished 19th out of about 250 entries. Chalking that one up as a win
if the pacers were in the CFP without haliburton they would be removed from the game at half
June 23, 2025 at 1:19 AM
if the pacers were in the CFP without haliburton they would be removed from the game at half
Take it from someone who tried to predict the bracket mostly by making a statistical model
OKC fouling up 3 there is bad data analysis. With no context foul up 3 is the right move, but Denver has the ball 90 feet away needing a 3 without a TO or Jokic on the floor. Play it out
OKC fouling up 3 there is bad data analysis. With no context foul up 3 is the right move, but Denver has the ball 90 feet away needing a 3 without a TO or Jokic on the floor. Play it out
May 6, 2025 at 4:44 AM
Take it from someone who tried to predict the bracket mostly by making a statistical model
OKC fouling up 3 there is bad data analysis. With no context foul up 3 is the right move, but Denver has the ball 90 feet away needing a 3 without a TO or Jokic on the floor. Play it out
OKC fouling up 3 there is bad data analysis. With no context foul up 3 is the right move, but Denver has the ball 90 feet away needing a 3 without a TO or Jokic on the floor. Play it out
Completely bygone topic now that we're in the sweet sixteen, but the official bracket emphasized WAB *more* than the mid year reveal. WAB had a 90.7% correlation with ranking within the seed list, crushing every metric and quad stat over the past few years by no less than 7%
Wins above bubble has an 83% correlation with seed on today's bracket reveal. That's ludicrously high and just about blows every metric out of the water in the prior three years
March 26, 2025 at 10:45 PM
Completely bygone topic now that we're in the sweet sixteen, but the official bracket emphasized WAB *more* than the mid year reveal. WAB had a 90.7% correlation with ranking within the seed list, crushing every metric and quad stat over the past few years by no less than 7%
We all need to take a lesson from North Carolina tonight: metrics matter, a lot.
I tweeted about this a while back, but UNC's metrics are great relative to the other bubble teams. They were crushing teams down the stretch and it was reflected in the metrics, which got them in
I tweeted about this a while back, but UNC's metrics are great relative to the other bubble teams. They were crushing teams down the stretch and it was reflected in the metrics, which got them in
March 19, 2025 at 3:40 AM
We all need to take a lesson from North Carolina tonight: metrics matter, a lot.
I tweeted about this a while back, but UNC's metrics are great relative to the other bubble teams. They were crushing teams down the stretch and it was reflected in the metrics, which got them in
I tweeted about this a while back, but UNC's metrics are great relative to the other bubble teams. They were crushing teams down the stretch and it was reflected in the metrics, which got them in
Year 1's entry finished 19th out of about 250 entries. Chalking that one up as a win
One final bracket for the calm before the storm. March Madness is less than 30 minutes away, and had a ton of fun building the model and following college basketball. Enjoy the selection show!
March 17, 2025 at 10:59 PM
Year 1's entry finished 19th out of about 250 entries. Chalking that one up as a win
96.7% of the bracket within one seed line, 53 exact seeds, 11 within 1 seed line, miss on UNC and Xavier being in over WVU and Indiana (Xavier is costly)
Louisville and Memphis are the two whiffs seeding teams in the field (went against my own advice with Memphis)
Louisville and Memphis are the two whiffs seeding teams in the field (went against my own advice with Memphis)
One final bracket for the calm before the storm. March Madness is less than 30 minutes away, and had a ton of fun building the model and following college basketball. Enjoy the selection show!
March 17, 2025 at 12:08 AM
96.7% of the bracket within one seed line, 53 exact seeds, 11 within 1 seed line, miss on UNC and Xavier being in over WVU and Indiana (Xavier is costly)
Louisville and Memphis are the two whiffs seeding teams in the field (went against my own advice with Memphis)
Louisville and Memphis are the two whiffs seeding teams in the field (went against my own advice with Memphis)
Interested to see where this ends up landing. Some real shockers like UM as a 5, UNC in, IU and WVU out, Louisville an 8, Memphis a 5
Formula whiffed on a couple teams it liked like UC SD and VCU, absolutely nailed the one bid teams though
All in all think this was a good first try
Formula whiffed on a couple teams it liked like UC SD and VCU, absolutely nailed the one bid teams though
All in all think this was a good first try
One final bracket for the calm before the storm. March Madness is less than 30 minutes away, and had a ton of fun building the model and following college basketball. Enjoy the selection show!
March 16, 2025 at 11:54 PM
Interested to see where this ends up landing. Some real shockers like UM as a 5, UNC in, IU and WVU out, Louisville an 8, Memphis a 5
Formula whiffed on a couple teams it liked like UC SD and VCU, absolutely nailed the one bid teams though
All in all think this was a good first try
Formula whiffed on a couple teams it liked like UC SD and VCU, absolutely nailed the one bid teams though
All in all think this was a good first try
I think we need a metric that adjusts to how a team is playing at the end of the season vs the beginning. Torvik lets you adjust date parameters, and you can see how a team rates from say, since 1/1/25 rather than since 11/1/24. Teams aren't the same as they are in November (see: Oklahoma)
The only explanation I can really give is Louisville's fate was set getting blown out by Tennessee and Ole Miss at the very beginning of the year- we know beyond all doubt they aren't that team now, but if UofL dropped 1-2 Q3 games the committee might've sent them to Dayton having won like 19 of 23
March 16, 2025 at 11:48 PM
I think we need a metric that adjusts to how a team is playing at the end of the season vs the beginning. Torvik lets you adjust date parameters, and you can see how a team rates from say, since 1/1/25 rather than since 11/1/24. Teams aren't the same as they are in November (see: Oklahoma)
Tbf, no metric had louisville as an 8
Clemson at 5 will get gripes locally but Memphis at a 5 explains what happened to Louisville better
Louisville played their way in by winning 21 of 23 (!) games. Memphis had 4 great NC wins and was dreadful in conference
Crazy emphasis on the NCSOS in Nov/Dec
Clemson at 5 will get gripes locally but Memphis at a 5 explains what happened to Louisville better
Louisville played their way in by winning 21 of 23 (!) games. Memphis had 4 great NC wins and was dreadful in conference
Crazy emphasis on the NCSOS in Nov/Dec
All of the metrics reward teams far too much for merely playing other good teams.
March 16, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Tbf, no metric had louisville as an 8
Clemson at 5 will get gripes locally but Memphis at a 5 explains what happened to Louisville better
Louisville played their way in by winning 21 of 23 (!) games. Memphis had 4 great NC wins and was dreadful in conference
Crazy emphasis on the NCSOS in Nov/Dec
Clemson at 5 will get gripes locally but Memphis at a 5 explains what happened to Louisville better
Louisville played their way in by winning 21 of 23 (!) games. Memphis had 4 great NC wins and was dreadful in conference
Crazy emphasis on the NCSOS in Nov/Dec
WVU had 3 more Q1A wins than UNC had Q1 wins, including Gonzaga and Arizona neutral, Iowa state at home, and at Kansas
North Carolina beat ucla and lost donkey digit Q1 games
Think we can all see what happened here
North Carolina beat ucla and lost donkey digit Q1 games
Think we can all see what happened here
March 16, 2025 at 11:12 PM
WVU had 3 more Q1A wins than UNC had Q1 wins, including Gonzaga and Arizona neutral, Iowa state at home, and at Kansas
North Carolina beat ucla and lost donkey digit Q1 games
Think we can all see what happened here
North Carolina beat ucla and lost donkey digit Q1 games
Think we can all see what happened here
Here is Louisville’s analytical profile via Torvik, including NET, KPI, SOR, WAB, Results Average
Then BPI, KenPom, Torvik, and the predictive average
Then BPI, KenPom, Torvik, and the predictive average
March 16, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Here is Louisville’s analytical profile via Torvik, including NET, KPI, SOR, WAB, Results Average
Then BPI, KenPom, Torvik, and the predictive average
Then BPI, KenPom, Torvik, and the predictive average
Lexington de facto home game is nice
However there were zero metrics on the team sheet that suggested Louisville is an 8. Every single one was above 28, and results based metrics were mostly in the 4-5 range
Committee just ignored *everything* but Q1 wins
However there were zero metrics on the team sheet that suggested Louisville is an 8. Every single one was above 28, and results based metrics were mostly in the 4-5 range
Committee just ignored *everything* but Q1 wins
March 16, 2025 at 10:09 PM
Lexington de facto home game is nice
However there were zero metrics on the team sheet that suggested Louisville is an 8. Every single one was above 28, and results based metrics were mostly in the 4-5 range
Committee just ignored *everything* but Q1 wins
However there were zero metrics on the team sheet that suggested Louisville is an 8. Every single one was above 28, and results based metrics were mostly in the 4-5 range
Committee just ignored *everything* but Q1 wins
For fun, predicting local teams
Indiana will be a 12 and play Texas in Dayton before being sent to play BYU on Thursday
Louisville will be a 6 and play UC San Diego round 1
Kentucky will be a 3 and play Troy round 1
Indiana will be a 12 and play Texas in Dayton before being sent to play BYU on Thursday
Louisville will be a 6 and play UC San Diego round 1
Kentucky will be a 3 and play Troy round 1
March 16, 2025 at 9:50 PM
For fun, predicting local teams
Indiana will be a 12 and play Texas in Dayton before being sent to play BYU on Thursday
Louisville will be a 6 and play UC San Diego round 1
Kentucky will be a 3 and play Troy round 1
Indiana will be a 12 and play Texas in Dayton before being sent to play BYU on Thursday
Louisville will be a 6 and play UC San Diego round 1
Kentucky will be a 3 and play Troy round 1
One final bracket for the calm before the storm. March Madness is less than 30 minutes away, and had a ton of fun building the model and following college basketball. Enjoy the selection show!
March 16, 2025 at 9:40 PM
One final bracket for the calm before the storm. March Madness is less than 30 minutes away, and had a ton of fun building the model and following college basketball. Enjoy the selection show!
Georgetown paid 10s of millions of dollars to hire Ed Cooley and not Rick Pitino.
March 16, 2025 at 12:16 AM
Georgetown paid 10s of millions of dollars to hire Ed Cooley and not Rick Pitino.
The bubble now comes down to what argument the committee arbitrarily decides it likes most Sunday
IU, Xavier, Texas, Boise, UNC, CO St, maybe VCU (if they don’t win the a10) would vie for 3 spots
I think sdsu is probably in but could add them into the mix for a fourth spot
IU, Xavier, Texas, Boise, UNC, CO St, maybe VCU (if they don’t win the a10) would vie for 3 spots
I think sdsu is probably in but could add them into the mix for a fourth spot
March 15, 2025 at 5:17 AM
The bubble now comes down to what argument the committee arbitrarily decides it likes most Sunday
IU, Xavier, Texas, Boise, UNC, CO St, maybe VCU (if they don’t win the a10) would vie for 3 spots
I think sdsu is probably in but could add them into the mix for a fourth spot
IU, Xavier, Texas, Boise, UNC, CO St, maybe VCU (if they don’t win the a10) would vie for 3 spots
I think sdsu is probably in but could add them into the mix for a fourth spot
Boise state may get an at large on their own after winning tonight, but a Broncos-Colorado State final is a nightmare for bubble teams
Boise very well may have already bumped someone out and CSU with a win definitively will pop someone’s bubble
Boise very well may have already bumped someone out and CSU with a win definitively will pop someone’s bubble
March 15, 2025 at 5:11 AM
Boise state may get an at large on their own after winning tonight, but a Broncos-Colorado State final is a nightmare for bubble teams
Boise very well may have already bumped someone out and CSU with a win definitively will pop someone’s bubble
Boise very well may have already bumped someone out and CSU with a win definitively will pop someone’s bubble
ACC officials doing the thing where they call absolutely nothing for a half and then call everything after the break
March 15, 2025 at 3:08 AM
ACC officials doing the thing where they call absolutely nothing for a half and then call everything after the break
This feels like The End™️ for North Carolina ngl
March 15, 2025 at 12:00 AM
This feels like The End™️ for North Carolina ngl
Went ahead and threw Dayton and UC Irvine on the board for the hell of it, and they do better than I thought in the formula! Just behind Boise for both of them
March 14, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Went ahead and threw Dayton and UC Irvine on the board for the hell of it, and they do better than I thought in the formula! Just behind Boise for both of them
Re ran the numbers this morning and have a few different looks at the bubble here:
Starting off, San Diego State is in better shape than expected w/ an elite NCSOS rating. Aztecs might have to go to Dayton but I think they are a little above that very last spot
Starting off, San Diego State is in better shape than expected w/ an elite NCSOS rating. Aztecs might have to go to Dayton but I think they are a little above that very last spot
March 14, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Re ran the numbers this morning and have a few different looks at the bubble here:
Starting off, San Diego State is in better shape than expected w/ an elite NCSOS rating. Aztecs might have to go to Dayton but I think they are a little above that very last spot
Starting off, San Diego State is in better shape than expected w/ an elite NCSOS rating. Aztecs might have to go to Dayton but I think they are a little above that very last spot
Probably won't run the numbers again until tomorrow or Saturday morning but really am interested to see the order of IU/Xavier/SDSU/Texas/UNC. It's all been so close and also will show who would get bumped out with a bid thief or two
March 13, 2025 at 11:04 PM
Probably won't run the numbers again until tomorrow or Saturday morning but really am interested to see the order of IU/Xavier/SDSU/Texas/UNC. It's all been so close and also will show who would get bumped out with a bid thief or two
Really bad couple of results here for IU and Xavier, Texas gets an enormous win over A&M to stay in contention and will likely move into the field for me. UNC also wins over Wake and has a real shot against a Flagg/Brown-less Duke. Boise and SDSU in a battle
March 13, 2025 at 10:58 PM
Really bad couple of results here for IU and Xavier, Texas gets an enormous win over A&M to stay in contention and will likely move into the field for me. UNC also wins over Wake and has a real shot against a Flagg/Brown-less Duke. Boise and SDSU in a battle
Big East quarters being on peacock is one of the most offensive aspects of our tv overlords taking over college sports
March 13, 2025 at 7:33 PM
Big East quarters being on peacock is one of the most offensive aspects of our tv overlords taking over college sports
IMO Indiana is still in for now but Hoo boy did it get a lot more nervy for the next couple of days
#iubb should want these teams to lose:
Xavier
Texas
North Carolina
Boise St
Colorado St
Dayton
Wake Forest
And for good measure, these teams to win
VCU
UC San Diego
#iubb should want these teams to lose:
Xavier
Texas
North Carolina
Boise St
Colorado St
Dayton
Wake Forest
And for good measure, these teams to win
VCU
UC San Diego
March 13, 2025 at 6:15 PM
IMO Indiana is still in for now but Hoo boy did it get a lot more nervy for the next couple of days
#iubb should want these teams to lose:
Xavier
Texas
North Carolina
Boise St
Colorado St
Dayton
Wake Forest
And for good measure, these teams to win
VCU
UC San Diego
#iubb should want these teams to lose:
Xavier
Texas
North Carolina
Boise St
Colorado St
Dayton
Wake Forest
And for good measure, these teams to win
VCU
UC San Diego