@hgerhauser.bsky.social
Maybe between 2030 and 2035 with demand down by 90%. Our local filling station in Germany no longer has a shop or staff, so I am not so sure how much other revenue really matters for the economics.
December 27, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Maybe between 2030 and 2035 with demand down by 90%. Our local filling station in Germany no longer has a shop or staff, so I am not so sure how much other revenue really matters for the economics.
On the other hand a lot of EV charging is at home, maybe 80%, and a lot of public charging is not at filling stations, maybe also 80%. That may leave a fairly small market for filling stations.
December 27, 2025 at 8:39 AM
On the other hand a lot of EV charging is at home, maybe 80%, and a lot of public charging is not at filling stations, maybe also 80%. That may leave a fairly small market for filling stations.
While prices can in principle fall below zero (and often do in the case of for example electric power), what is likely meant and a surprisingly common way of approaching percentage decreases rhetorically is the reversal of a 600% increase.
December 18, 2025 at 11:51 AM
While prices can in principle fall below zero (and often do in the case of for example electric power), what is likely meant and a surprisingly common way of approaching percentage decreases rhetorically is the reversal of a 600% increase.
What troubles me a little are heat losses in the distribution network and high operating temperatures. Why not supply water at about 10 C to flats that then use an individual water water heat pump?
December 17, 2025 at 1:41 PM
What troubles me a little are heat losses in the distribution network and high operating temperatures. Why not supply water at about 10 C to flats that then use an individual water water heat pump?
I think it's due to installers being very familiar with water based systems and air conditioning being relatively uncommon. I live in Germany and am happy with air to air as a cheap solution that's cut our gas consumption by about 80% (together with a separate heat pump for hot water.)
December 13, 2025 at 11:39 AM
I think it's due to installers being very familiar with water based systems and air conditioning being relatively uncommon. I live in Germany and am happy with air to air as a cheap solution that's cut our gas consumption by about 80% (together with a separate heat pump for hot water.)
Das dürfte kurzfristig der wichtigere Hebel sein, also wird auf Realverbrauch umgestellt bei der Bewertung? Wenn ja, und die 20 Gramm auf dem Papier sind plötzlich 125 Gramm, ja dann tut das weh.
December 12, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Das dürfte kurzfristig der wichtigere Hebel sein, also wird auf Realverbrauch umgestellt bei der Bewertung? Wenn ja, und die 20 Gramm auf dem Papier sind plötzlich 125 Gramm, ja dann tut das weh.
Man könnte auch die 95 Euro pro g zahlen, zumindest bei Plugin Hybriden muss das nicht viel sein, bei 20 Gramm 1900 Euro, was schon ziemlich weit weg von Quasi Verbot ist bei Autos, die jenseits von 50000 Euro kosten.
December 12, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Man könnte auch die 95 Euro pro g zahlen, zumindest bei Plugin Hybriden muss das nicht viel sein, bei 20 Gramm 1900 Euro, was schon ziemlich weit weg von Quasi Verbot ist bei Autos, die jenseits von 50000 Euro kosten.
The depth is based on easy digging of the trenches. In 1979 drilling to get to greater depth was not considered/feasible whatever. This was a very early system. The collectors in the soil are still in use, the heat pump itself was replaced after about 40 years, I don't remember the exact year.
December 12, 2025 at 6:29 AM
The depth is based on easy digging of the trenches. In 1979 drilling to get to greater depth was not considered/feasible whatever. This was a very early system. The collectors in the soil are still in use, the heat pump itself was replaced after about 40 years, I don't remember the exact year.
I think bottles are viable when you are talking hybrid heat pumps. If somebody wanted to keep using like 25000 kWh gas per year, it would of course have to be a large storage tank, bottles should do up to about 2000 kWh or something like that.
December 11, 2025 at 7:06 PM
I think bottles are viable when you are talking hybrid heat pumps. If somebody wanted to keep using like 25000 kWh gas per year, it would of course have to be a large storage tank, bottles should do up to about 2000 kWh or something like that.
My father got a heat pump in 1979, the heat source is the soil at a depth of about 2.5 m. He does have natural gas a backup, a few hundred kWh for a cold snap in late February / early March. Initially that was supplied in bottles before the gas grid was connected in the early 80`s.
December 11, 2025 at 7:02 PM
My father got a heat pump in 1979, the heat source is the soil at a depth of about 2.5 m. He does have natural gas a backup, a few hundred kWh for a cold snap in late February / early March. Initially that was supplied in bottles before the gas grid was connected in the early 80`s.
My father got a heat pump in 1979 and needs occasional backup with gas. Initially the gas grid was not available, four propane bottles did the job. I think DME (easier to produce from biogas) / propane should be ok to handle a small number of hybrid heat pumps, where the gas grid is killed off.
December 9, 2025 at 1:33 PM
My father got a heat pump in 1979 and needs occasional backup with gas. Initially the gas grid was not available, four propane bottles did the job. I think DME (easier to produce from biogas) / propane should be ok to handle a small number of hybrid heat pumps, where the gas grid is killed off.
A large fraction of EV owners in Germany who can charge at home do also have solar panels and can charge a large fraction at a very low price point that way. Nonetheless I agree the smart meter rollout here is far from optimal.
December 8, 2025 at 11:40 AM
A large fraction of EV owners in Germany who can charge at home do also have solar panels and can charge a large fraction at a very low price point that way. Nonetheless I agree the smart meter rollout here is far from optimal.
Indeed. Ideally on street residential charging should be very similar to home charging. For a small group of users a charger like the Go-e I use myself at home can store the energy consumption per user locally and there's no need for expensive intermediaries.
December 7, 2025 at 12:53 PM
Indeed. Ideally on street residential charging should be very similar to home charging. For a small group of users a charger like the Go-e I use myself at home can store the energy consumption per user locally and there's no need for expensive intermediaries.
In residential areas it is fine to restrict access to a residents. Instead of two parking spaces with each 22 kW and access for anybody, one can place 12 chargers, each 3.6 kW and next to three spaces. With 36 parking spaces it is possible to park however long one wants.
December 7, 2025 at 12:49 PM
In residential areas it is fine to restrict access to a residents. Instead of two parking spaces with each 22 kW and access for anybody, one can place 12 chargers, each 3.6 kW and next to three spaces. With 36 parking spaces it is possible to park however long one wants.
Very good piece. What I would add as an urgent near term issue is better use of the existing electricity grid.
November 29, 2025 at 12:33 PM
Very good piece. What I would add as an urgent near term issue is better use of the existing electricity grid.
Largely the climate problem can be solved at less than zero cost. PV, batteries, EV's, heat pumps need the removal of a few barriers, different market design that sort of thing. Then they are cheaper than fossil fuels. The climate emergency framing can give the opposite signal.
November 22, 2025 at 6:52 AM
Largely the climate problem can be solved at less than zero cost. PV, batteries, EV's, heat pumps need the removal of a few barriers, different market design that sort of thing. Then they are cheaper than fossil fuels. The climate emergency framing can give the opposite signal.
The focus should not be on frightening people into action, this is basically telling them that the solution will be mega expensive and cost us dearly but that it is nonetheless justified by the magnitude of calamity avoided. Or rather it is really telling them the solution will be hugely expensive.
November 22, 2025 at 6:45 AM
The focus should not be on frightening people into action, this is basically telling them that the solution will be mega expensive and cost us dearly but that it is nonetheless justified by the magnitude of calamity avoided. Or rather it is really telling them the solution will be hugely expensive.
I think there's a risk that it'll truly be bad, but the most likely is more like moving from my home near Cologne to Northern Italy than like moving to a disaster zone. Exaggerating the likely outcomes is a major factor undermining public trust in climate solutions in my opinion.
November 22, 2025 at 6:40 AM
I think there's a risk that it'll truly be bad, but the most likely is more like moving from my home near Cologne to Northern Italy than like moving to a disaster zone. Exaggerating the likely outcomes is a major factor undermining public trust in climate solutions in my opinion.
Wasserstoff ist schon deutlich teurer zu lagern und zu transportieren als andere Brennstoffe, wenn es um GuD und Kavernenspeicher geht. Bei kleinen dezentralen Motoren und Größenordnung 100 Betriebsstunden ist ein Treibstoff wie Bio DME, Bio Propan oder sogar Biodiesel die bessere Lösung.
November 22, 2025 at 5:58 AM
Wasserstoff ist schon deutlich teurer zu lagern und zu transportieren als andere Brennstoffe, wenn es um GuD und Kavernenspeicher geht. Bei kleinen dezentralen Motoren und Größenordnung 100 Betriebsstunden ist ein Treibstoff wie Bio DME, Bio Propan oder sogar Biodiesel die bessere Lösung.
Die 70 GW kann man aufteilen, zum Beispiel in 10 GW, für die es Batterien tun (Abendspitze), 30 GW für wirklich günstige Motoren (also vergleichbar mit denen in Autos sprich eher Größenordnung 50 Euro pro kW als 1000 Euro pro kW) und 30 GW an GuD, mit vielen Betriebsstunden und damit TWH.
November 22, 2025 at 5:52 AM
Die 70 GW kann man aufteilen, zum Beispiel in 10 GW, für die es Batterien tun (Abendspitze), 30 GW für wirklich günstige Motoren (also vergleichbar mit denen in Autos sprich eher Größenordnung 50 Euro pro kW als 1000 Euro pro kW) und 30 GW an GuD, mit vielen Betriebsstunden und damit TWH.
Wenn Automotoren 1000 Euro pro kW kosten würde, würde ein 100 kW Golf Motor 100000 Euro kosten. Das tut er nicht, weil er auf sehr wenige Volllaststunden ausgelegt ist. Einen bedeutenden Teil der 70 GW kann man für ähnlich wenige Betriebsstunden auslegen, also Größenordnung 100 im Jahr.
November 22, 2025 at 5:46 AM
Wenn Automotoren 1000 Euro pro kW kosten würde, würde ein 100 kW Golf Motor 100000 Euro kosten. Das tut er nicht, weil er auf sehr wenige Volllaststunden ausgelegt ist. Einen bedeutenden Teil der 70 GW kann man für ähnlich wenige Betriebsstunden auslegen, also Größenordnung 100 im Jahr.
Air conditioning units deliver near instant heat. I still have a gas boiler for colder days, when I replace it, I am planning on an air to water heat pump and/or a small water to water geothermal heat pump to complement the air conditioning units.
November 21, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Air conditioning units deliver near instant heat. I still have a gas boiler for colder days, when I replace it, I am planning on an air to water heat pump and/or a small water to water geothermal heat pump to complement the air conditioning units.
Personally, I think the most serious issue is the grid, and I now see several ways around this: batteries (including vehicle to grid), engines (stationary, but in terms of operating hours and cost per kW close to car ICE) and heat storage (including very low temperature, 20C in soil for two weeks)
November 21, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Personally, I think the most serious issue is the grid, and I now see several ways around this: batteries (including vehicle to grid), engines (stationary, but in terms of operating hours and cost per kW close to car ICE) and heat storage (including very low temperature, 20C in soil for two weeks)
1500 kWh from PV in June per household.
November 21, 2025 at 9:03 AM
1500 kWh from PV in June per household.
So a very small amount of batteries (distributed as maybe 75 kWh in the family car, 25 kWh home battery and 50 kWh next to the transformer) would mean doing away entirely with the gas grid connection without having to expand the local electricity grid at all. And 1500 kWh from PV would be fine too.
November 21, 2025 at 9:01 AM
So a very small amount of batteries (distributed as maybe 75 kWh in the family car, 25 kWh home battery and 50 kWh next to the transformer) would mean doing away entirely with the gas grid connection without having to expand the local electricity grid at all. And 1500 kWh from PV would be fine too.