Chris
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heycg.bsky.social
Chris
@heycg.bsky.social
290 followers 360 following 180 posts
Sports, bad math, #Rstats, graph crimes, and other shenanigans.
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heycg.bsky.social
Example of college football's circle of parity for 2025 season
Circle of parity for 2025 college football season
November 17, 2025 at 5:35 PM
heycg.bsky.social
College football double-digit favorites that have lost outright this season so far
List of double-digit point spread favorites that have lost outright this season according to TeamRankings
October 21, 2025 at 6:55 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Been messing around with trying to visualize college football possessions/drives in a different format

Here are two examples from the last two Penn State games using a bowling style scorecard by frame and a baseball style line score

#Rstats
Oregon 30, Penn State 24 - bowling style scorecard of possessions show points, number of plays, and percentage of available yards gained for each drive UCLA 42, Penn State 37 - baseball style line score showing points, explosive plays (big plays over 20+ yards) and turnovers instead of runs/hits/errors
October 8, 2025 at 3:49 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Added an OT games filter to the results page

Week 5 featured six OT games, up to 15 total on the season

cfbtxt.com/results/
Overtime games during 2025 college football season thus far
September 28, 2025 at 5:00 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Week 4 features 5 games between the Sun Belt and CUSA, plus 5 Big Ten conference matchups

Added a conference matchups table to cfbtxt dot com

cfbtxt.com/conferences/
College football 2025 conference matchups by week of the season, showing week 4 that features 5 games between the Sun Belt and CUSA Week 4 college football games between Sun Belt and CUSA conferences Week 3 and 4 Big Ten conference games
September 20, 2025 at 1:17 PM
heycg.bsky.social
First few weeks of college football featured only 5 conference games, there are 16 conference games on the slate in Week 3

A look at scheduling patterns by game type over the course of the season

#Rstats
#collegefootball
Cumulative count of conference, non-conference, and FCS vs FBS games over the 2025 regular season Number of league games each week by conference for 2025 season Cumulative count of conference, non-conference, and FBS vs FCS games by conference
September 13, 2025 at 1:45 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Carolina football is 160-164 over the past 25 seasons averaging 6.2 wins and 6.3 losses
North Carolina football is 160-164 over the past 25 seasons averaging 6.2 wins and 6.3 losses
August 27, 2025 at 12:07 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Trying to measure schedule similarity in college football

For example, while Penn State and Ohio State play each other this season, the teams only share two common opponents despite both being in the Big Ten

Plus, how schedule similarity has declined over time using a sample of seasons
Venn diagram of Penn State and Ohio State shared opponents for 2025 college football regular season Beeswarm plot showing the decline in schedule similarity over time using sample seasons from 1995, 2005, 2015, and 2025
August 13, 2025 at 4:06 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Why a nine game conference schedule can make college football data worse, the difference between rankings and ratings, and advice for the playoff committee

A Q&A with FEI creator @bcfremeau.bsky.social and some visualizations: blessyourchart.substack.com/p/149-a-conv...
The 2002 Notre Dame-Boston College game that sparked Brian Fremeau's college football analytics work and led to the FEI ratings. Shows how starting field position affects the likelihood of each of the eight possible offensive drive outcomes. Data available at bcftoys.com. FEI projections using only prior season data will miss outliers, but most program ratings remain stable year-to-year, especially defenses compared to offenses and special teams. Data and viz from Brian Fremeau. Comparison of inter-conference matchups from 2019 and 2020 seasons. The 2020 season was irregular due to the COVD pandemic.
August 6, 2025 at 2:44 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Virginia has the third "easiest" league schedule and the "weakest" non-conference schedule using @espnbillc.bsky.social numbers by opponent's SP+ percentile

All ACC teams sorted by lowest conference opponent SP+ percentile, Syracuse's schedule overall is tough
ACC football teams sorted by lowest conference opponent SP+ percentile
July 30, 2025 at 8:54 PM
heycg.bsky.social
2025 non-conference games between "power" conferences and a network of opponents across these leagues with Notre Dame included

Starting to surface more college football data here:
byc.evidence.app/2025-college...

#Rstats
Shows scheduled non-conference games between the ACC, SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, and Notre Dame during the 2025 college football regular season. Arizona and Kansas State play a 'non-conference' game, but both are members of the Big 12 and the game is not surfaced on the chart. Shows number of games between ACC, SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 for the 2025 regular season
July 30, 2025 at 3:01 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Georgia and Stanford are on opposite ends of the spectrum for sure
July 22, 2025 at 12:27 AM
heycg.bsky.social
thank you for sharing it, realized I needed to clean up some of the queries for independents like Notre Dame that don't play conference games
Show the 2025 Notre Dame football schedule with a travel and rest breakdown of opponents
July 21, 2025 at 11:44 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Attempting to pull together the largest transfer portal "imports" in college football over the past few seasons

The "follow the leader" or follow the head coach/coordinator model in action, some of these feel like a merger and acquisition

#collegefootball
Table shows the most amount of players to transfer from one program to another program over the past three seasons
May 14, 2025 at 3:00 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Some data viz on the ACC hoops schedule going from 20 to 18 league games next season

Change in conference vs non-conference games over time and the rarity of non-conference games after January 1

Plus, a results matrix for ACC baseball
blessyourchart.substack.com/p/142-the-accs-schedule-adjustments
Shows the percentage of regular season D-I men's basketball games played by ACC teams in conference and out of conference since 2010 ~99 percent of all D-I non-conference games this past men's basketball season were played before January 1 Results matrix for ACC baseball teams through May 5 games
May 7, 2025 at 8:25 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Trying out some dot plots with NFL Draft data

#Rstats
April 23, 2025 at 11:29 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Men's NCAA Tournament performance of teams ranked in the preseason AP top-25 poll

11 of the 25 teams are still playing or in the Sweet 16

Plus, surfacing three-point shooting numbers by round of the tournament given the inflated ball discourse

blessyourchart.substack.com/p/137-the-ap...
11 of the 25 teams ranked in the preseason AP top-25 poll are still playing in the 2025 NCAA Tournament or in the Sweet 16 Men's basketball three-point shooting numbers by round of the NCAA Tournament since 2011
March 26, 2025 at 2:06 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Taking a look at the performance of teams in the NCAA men's tournament by region

Uses @barttorvik.bsky.social's Game Score metrics and odds to win region or advance to Final Four

Teams aren't necessarily as "good" or "bad" as their best/worst performance

#MarchMadness
East Region: NCAA men's basketball tournament Performance of teams using Bart Torvik's Game Score Midwest Region: NCAA men's basketball tournament Performance of teams using Bart Torvik's Game Score SouthtRegion: NCAA men's basketball tournament Performance of teams using Bart Torvik's Game Score West Region: NCAA men's basketball tournament Performance of teams using Bart Torvik's Game Score
March 19, 2025 at 8:16 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Few charts and tables after the regular season of ACC men's basketball

Slope chart showing change in preseason poll and final standings using the tournament seedings

Data from last 11 ACC tournaments or since the format changed to 15 teams

#CollegeBasketball
#Rstats
Slope chart comparing preseason poll predictions for ACC men's basketball and the final regular season standings ACC Men's Basketball Tournament since 2014 table showing records and titles by seed ACC Men's Basketball Tournament since 2014 table showing records, seed summary, and and titles by team
March 11, 2025 at 4:00 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Trying to learn network plots

Showing common opponents across ACC and SEC this season in men's basketball

#Rstats #CollegeBasketball
Common opponents from ACC and SEC teams in men's basketball using tidygraph package from R
March 7, 2025 at 2:51 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Best and worst margin of victory per game in regular season play in ACC history or since 1953-54 season

Data via @stathead.com

Duke has a +421 point differential in 19 ACC games so far this season or 22.3 advantage per game

That's just shy of the 1998-98 Blue Devils mark of 24.3 per game
Best margin of victory per game in regular season play in ACC men's basketball history, a whole lot of Duke Worst margin of victory per game in regular season play in ACC men's basketball history, a whole lot of Clemson
March 4, 2025 at 8:45 PM
heycg.bsky.social
my goodness
scores.cbbdata.com
March 1, 2025 at 7:27 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Partnered with @seeryanc.bsky.social and took a look at #UNC hoops lineup changes over the season using 2-guards, 3-guards, and 4-guards

Plus, some quad comparisons using WAB data

#CollegeBasketball

blessyourchart.substack.com/p/133-contex...
North Carolina men's basketball lineup changes by type (2-Guard, 3-Guard, 4-Guard) since the start of the season. UNC has abandoned the 4-Guard lineup as of late. Table of North Carolina men's basketball lineup changes by type (2-Guard, 3-Guard, 4-Guard) since the start of the season. UNC has abandoned the 4-Guard lineup as of late. College basketball comparison of Quadrant 1 games for Gonzaga, Indiana, and North Carolina. Each game is plotted based on the odds that a bubble team would win it.
February 28, 2025 at 9:14 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Plotting adjusted strength of schedule rankings using data from kenpom.com

An 18-team ACC has zero teams within the top-30 of the current rankings

North Carolina (32nd) ranks the highest, and that's after playing a SWAC-esque non-conference slate that ranks seventh nationally
Men's college basketball strength of schedule rankins by conference using kenpom.com's adjusting efficiency ratings. North Carolina has the toughest schedulein the ACC, but that ranks 32nd overall.
February 27, 2025 at 9:52 PM
heycg.bsky.social
Elliot Cadeau has been whistled for 80 fouls this season, that’s 22 more than any other Carolina player

Tried to look at _when_ during the game Cadeau commits fouls

scraping the play-by-play using bigballR

#CollegeBasketball
#UNC
#Rstats
Bar chart of when North Carolina’s Elliot Cadeau commits fouls, bins the game time in five minutes segments Table showing the timestamp of game time when Elliot Cadeau is whistled for fouls
February 18, 2025 at 12:57 AM