Hersh Ptyczinski
@hershptyc.bsky.social
Occasionally wins elections.
dontgiveuptheship.substack.com is my creedthoughts.gov
dontgiveuptheship.substack.com is my creedthoughts.gov
A big reminder to people out there that it isn't a law of nature that low-propensity voters will vote Republican.
In fact, you could argue that they are far more likely to swing back than for Dems to make outside gains with high propensity voters.
In fact, you could argue that they are far more likely to swing back than for Dems to make outside gains with high propensity voters.
January 8, 2025 at 7:52 PM
A big reminder to people out there that it isn't a law of nature that low-propensity voters will vote Republican.
In fact, you could argue that they are far more likely to swing back than for Dems to make outside gains with high propensity voters.
In fact, you could argue that they are far more likely to swing back than for Dems to make outside gains with high propensity voters.
Actually a good point from the reporting I've seen from the VA specials. If you're looking for signs of Dem strength, you're looking for Dems to outrun Harris, and probably by a decent margin.
Seems obvious but seeing coverage of VA as a D overperformance. Lagging Biden 2020 isn't super great.
Seems obvious but seeing coverage of VA as a D overperformance. Lagging Biden 2020 isn't super great.
January 8, 2025 at 5:23 PM
Actually a good point from the reporting I've seen from the VA specials. If you're looking for signs of Dem strength, you're looking for Dems to outrun Harris, and probably by a decent margin.
Seems obvious but seeing coverage of VA as a D overperformance. Lagging Biden 2020 isn't super great.
Seems obvious but seeing coverage of VA as a D overperformance. Lagging Biden 2020 isn't super great.
As promised my lazy recap of VA specials (2020 > 2025)
SD-10:R+24.5 > R+17.6
SD-32: D+34.8 > D+22.6
HD-25: D+27.3 > D+23.2
The takeaway? A big shrug.
SD-10:R+24.5 > R+17.6
SD-32: D+34.8 > D+22.6
HD-25: D+27.3 > D+23.2
The takeaway? A big shrug.
January 8, 2025 at 4:07 PM
As promised my lazy recap of VA specials (2020 > 2025)
SD-10:R+24.5 > R+17.6
SD-32: D+34.8 > D+22.6
HD-25: D+27.3 > D+23.2
The takeaway? A big shrug.
SD-10:R+24.5 > R+17.6
SD-32: D+34.8 > D+22.6
HD-25: D+27.3 > D+23.2
The takeaway? A big shrug.
I don't purport to know the future exactly but...
Judging by the speed Trump went from complaining about inflation to invading Greenland, I think Democrats should be aiming for 240+ seats in the 2026 midterms.
Judging by the speed Trump went from complaining about inflation to invading Greenland, I think Democrats should be aiming for 240+ seats in the 2026 midterms.
January 7, 2025 at 10:17 PM
I don't purport to know the future exactly but...
Judging by the speed Trump went from complaining about inflation to invading Greenland, I think Democrats should be aiming for 240+ seats in the 2026 midterms.
Judging by the speed Trump went from complaining about inflation to invading Greenland, I think Democrats should be aiming for 240+ seats in the 2026 midterms.
Have thought about it and I'm not going to do a deep-dive map on VA tonight. Three non-competative districts and we still haven't hit inauguration day.
To the extent we can judge the 2026 environment through specials, this one ain't it.
To the extent we can judge the 2026 environment through specials, this one ain't it.
January 7, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Have thought about it and I'm not going to do a deep-dive map on VA tonight. Three non-competative districts and we still haven't hit inauguration day.
To the extent we can judge the 2026 environment through specials, this one ain't it.
To the extent we can judge the 2026 environment through specials, this one ain't it.
I heard dem staffers constantly talking about typical media appearances "making good clips."
Stuff like that is 15 years out of date. People want to see candidates unscripted now. Clipping speeches and interviews for social media seems inauthentic and elitist now.
Stuff like that is 15 years out of date. People want to see candidates unscripted now. Clipping speeches and interviews for social media seems inauthentic and elitist now.
November 30, 2024 at 10:24 PM
I heard dem staffers constantly talking about typical media appearances "making good clips."
Stuff like that is 15 years out of date. People want to see candidates unscripted now. Clipping speeches and interviews for social media seems inauthentic and elitist now.
Stuff like that is 15 years out of date. People want to see candidates unscripted now. Clipping speeches and interviews for social media seems inauthentic and elitist now.
Today's events in Syria are a great example for why "wait and see" is the best strategy for Democrats trying to counter Trump 2.0.
Syria wasn't a camapign issue. Nobody debated it in 2024. Trump's response to renewed conflict in Syria could define his early term.
Syria wasn't a camapign issue. Nobody debated it in 2024. Trump's response to renewed conflict in Syria could define his early term.
November 30, 2024 at 9:36 PM
Today's events in Syria are a great example for why "wait and see" is the best strategy for Democrats trying to counter Trump 2.0.
Syria wasn't a camapign issue. Nobody debated it in 2024. Trump's response to renewed conflict in Syria could define his early term.
Syria wasn't a camapign issue. Nobody debated it in 2024. Trump's response to renewed conflict in Syria could define his early term.
There are very few incorrect post-election takes right now, but "Democrats stayed home and didn't vote" is a take so bad you can disregard anything the person saying it says afterward.
Losing a persuasion election is a very fixable problem. Pretending we didn't is just ignoring the obvious fix.
Losing a persuasion election is a very fixable problem. Pretending we didn't is just ignoring the obvious fix.
November 28, 2024 at 5:02 PM
There are very few incorrect post-election takes right now, but "Democrats stayed home and didn't vote" is a take so bad you can disregard anything the person saying it says afterward.
Losing a persuasion election is a very fixable problem. Pretending we didn't is just ignoring the obvious fix.
Losing a persuasion election is a very fixable problem. Pretending we didn't is just ignoring the obvious fix.
I was thinking Kitchens could net 600 from Hinds and even that was in the "close but no cigar" bucket. Needed to break better for him, not worse.
Netting less than 500 is probably the ballgame here. Absentees came in clutch for Branning, who is likely to pull this out by about 1,000 votes.
Netting less than 500 is probably the ballgame here. Absentees came in clutch for Branning, who is likely to pull this out by about 1,000 votes.
Via @calebbedillion.bsky.social: Hinds County absentee ballots broke for Kitchens, the incumbent justice, but by no means by what he needed.
Branning (R) still leads by 1,216 votes (<1%) overall.
Unknown exactly which counties still have absentees, but Hinds was the big one.
Branning (R) still leads by 1,216 votes (<1%) overall.
Unknown exactly which counties still have absentees, but Hinds was the big one.
November 27, 2024 at 5:47 PM
I was thinking Kitchens could net 600 from Hinds and even that was in the "close but no cigar" bucket. Needed to break better for him, not worse.
Netting less than 500 is probably the ballgame here. Absentees came in clutch for Branning, who is likely to pull this out by about 1,000 votes.
Netting less than 500 is probably the ballgame here. Absentees came in clutch for Branning, who is likely to pull this out by about 1,000 votes.
While we're waiting for the final buzzer here, a quick spreadsheet update.
Kitchens ran ahead of benchmark in the western counties but got crushed in the east. If he comes up short by <1000 votes, the regret might be coming up short in Yazoo and Warren.
Western. Jackson metro. Missed benchmarks.
Kitchens ran ahead of benchmark in the western counties but got crushed in the east. If he comes up short by <1000 votes, the regret might be coming up short in Yazoo and Warren.
Western. Jackson metro. Missed benchmarks.
November 27, 2024 at 4:30 PM
While we're waiting for the final buzzer here, a quick spreadsheet update.
Kitchens ran ahead of benchmark in the western counties but got crushed in the east. If he comes up short by <1000 votes, the regret might be coming up short in Yazoo and Warren.
Western. Jackson metro. Missed benchmarks.
Kitchens ran ahead of benchmark in the western counties but got crushed in the east. If he comes up short by <1000 votes, the regret might be coming up short in Yazoo and Warren.
Western. Jackson metro. Missed benchmarks.
@calebbedillion.bsky.social This is why I'm skeptical of the math for Kitchens down the home stretch here. Absentees have been coming in about 20 points worse for him than E-Day vote. If that happens in Hinds he nets about 600-700 votes.
He needs to smash expectations or have something else pop up.
He needs to smash expectations or have something else pop up.
November 27, 2024 at 3:53 PM
@calebbedillion.bsky.social This is why I'm skeptical of the math for Kitchens down the home stretch here. Absentees have been coming in about 20 points worse for him than E-Day vote. If that happens in Hinds he nets about 600-700 votes.
He needs to smash expectations or have something else pop up.
He needs to smash expectations or have something else pop up.
Oh my god. That's disgusting. Counties with unreported absentees? But there are so many of them though. Which ones?
November 27, 2024 at 3:20 PM
Oh my god. That's disgusting. Counties with unreported absentees? But there are so many of them though. Which ones?
@calebbedillion.bsky.social has been the go-to guy for explaining why this Mississippi Supreme Court race has been a nightmare to wrap up.
At this point, the number Kitchens needs is roughly the number I'd expect him to net from the outstanding vote.
Assuming we actually know what's out there.
At this point, the number Kitchens needs is roughly the number I'd expect him to net from the outstanding vote.
Assuming we actually know what's out there.
Mississippi Supreme Court runoff update: I just spoke with the Holmes County Circuit Clerk's office. These numbers below are unofficial, election-day totals with absentees not included.
Branning: 373
Kitchens: 1,710
Branning: 373
Kitchens: 1,710
November 27, 2024 at 3:02 PM
@calebbedillion.bsky.social has been the go-to guy for explaining why this Mississippi Supreme Court race has been a nightmare to wrap up.
At this point, the number Kitchens needs is roughly the number I'd expect him to net from the outstanding vote.
Assuming we actually know what's out there.
At this point, the number Kitchens needs is roughly the number I'd expect him to net from the outstanding vote.
Assuming we actually know what's out there.
I think with this, it's time for me to go to bed. This one could drag on for days. Maybe longer.
A lot of interesting stuff tonight. Branning cleaned up her home region. Kitchens beat margins in Jackson. A good night for the MS GOP to even challenge for this seat. Some good data points for Dems.
A lot of interesting stuff tonight. Branning cleaned up her home region. Kitchens beat margins in Jackson. A good night for the MS GOP to even challenge for this seat. Some good data points for Dems.
Possibly in Hinds, but unlikely. Holmes, absolutely not.
November 27, 2024 at 6:06 AM
I think with this, it's time for me to go to bed. This one could drag on for days. Maybe longer.
A lot of interesting stuff tonight. Branning cleaned up her home region. Kitchens beat margins in Jackson. A good night for the MS GOP to even challenge for this seat. Some good data points for Dems.
A lot of interesting stuff tonight. Branning cleaned up her home region. Kitchens beat margins in Jackson. A good night for the MS GOP to even challenge for this seat. Some good data points for Dems.
Looking at what's left, I think this is starting to look like a true tossup. Absentees coming in redder than I thought and mote of them in Madison + Rankin than expected.
That's enough to shave the point or two I thought Kitchens had off the top. Need to see Holmes.
That's enough to shave the point or two I thought Kitchens had off the top. Need to see Holmes.
November 27, 2024 at 5:44 AM
Looking at what's left, I think this is starting to look like a true tossup. Absentees coming in redder than I thought and mote of them in Madison + Rankin than expected.
That's enough to shave the point or two I thought Kitchens had off the top. Need to see Holmes.
That's enough to shave the point or two I thought Kitchens had off the top. Need to see Holmes.
Kudos to @yeargain.bsky.social for finding the Rankin county tally first.
I don't really see the absentee update as an issue for Kitchens. He loses Rankin by 43, beating his benchmark of -52 by 8.6 points. That's actually his third best performance tonight, besides Bolivar and Copiah (his home).
I don't really see the absentee update as an issue for Kitchens. He loses Rankin by 43, beating his benchmark of -52 by 8.6 points. That's actually his third best performance tonight, besides Bolivar and Copiah (his home).
November 27, 2024 at 5:12 AM
Kudos to @yeargain.bsky.social for finding the Rankin county tally first.
I don't really see the absentee update as an issue for Kitchens. He loses Rankin by 43, beating his benchmark of -52 by 8.6 points. That's actually his third best performance tonight, besides Bolivar and Copiah (his home).
I don't really see the absentee update as an issue for Kitchens. He loses Rankin by 43, beating his benchmark of -52 by 8.6 points. That's actually his third best performance tonight, besides Bolivar and Copiah (his home).
While we wait for Holmes County, this ended up being the winning idea of the night.
Branding ran very well in her home county and those surrounding it. But that didn't cover the map.
At the end of the night, Kitchens is probably going to squeeze enough out of Jackson to make this work.
Branding ran very well in her home county and those surrounding it. But that didn't cover the map.
At the end of the night, Kitchens is probably going to squeeze enough out of Jackson to make this work.
Should be noted, however, that Branning is from the eastern side of the state, where her best results are coming in right now. Kitchens is from Copiah County, south of Jackson.
November 27, 2024 at 5:00 AM
While we wait for Holmes County, this ended up being the winning idea of the night.
Branding ran very well in her home county and those surrounding it. But that didn't cover the map.
At the end of the night, Kitchens is probably going to squeeze enough out of Jackson to make this work.
Branding ran very well in her home county and those surrounding it. But that didn't cover the map.
At the end of the night, Kitchens is probably going to squeeze enough out of Jackson to make this work.
Never let anyone tell you that California and Mississippi have nothing in common.
Fun fact: The AP did not report any numbers from Holmes County on Nov. 5. It didn't came in until the next day, I think. There was a lot more going on then, of course.
November 27, 2024 at 4:54 AM
Never let anyone tell you that California and Mississippi have nothing in common.
BREAKING NEWS: Holmes County has been annexed by California. Results expected by November of 2026.
November 27, 2024 at 4:03 AM
BREAKING NEWS: Holmes County has been annexed by California. Results expected by November of 2026.
Looking at what's still out... I think I'd rather be Kichens? By a little sure, but...
Hinds is still half done.
Bolivar and Holmes are good counties for him (D+24 and D+48 respectively).
Everything major left is in the west side of MS, where Kitchens has outrun benchmarks.
Hinds is still half done.
Bolivar and Holmes are good counties for him (D+24 and D+48 respectively).
Everything major left is in the west side of MS, where Kitchens has outrun benchmarks.
November 27, 2024 at 3:48 AM
Looking at what's still out... I think I'd rather be Kichens? By a little sure, but...
Hinds is still half done.
Bolivar and Holmes are good counties for him (D+24 and D+48 respectively).
Everything major left is in the west side of MS, where Kitchens has outrun benchmarks.
Hinds is still half done.
Bolivar and Holmes are good counties for him (D+24 and D+48 respectively).
Everything major left is in the west side of MS, where Kitchens has outrun benchmarks.
I think it's official that CA-13 is callable before Mississippi SC District 1.
Hooray!
Hooray!
November 27, 2024 at 3:42 AM
I think it's official that CA-13 is callable before Mississippi SC District 1.
Hooray!
Hooray!
Getting impatient here so I'm going to count Madison County done at 94%. Kitchens beats benchmarks by 3.8.
Probably not enough to overcome his problems in the western part of the state. Looking at what is out still, he's in toruble.
The endgame is really Hinds and Rankin here.
Probably not enough to overcome his problems in the western part of the state. Looking at what is out still, he's in toruble.
The endgame is really Hinds and Rankin here.
November 27, 2024 at 3:19 AM
Getting impatient here so I'm going to count Madison County done at 94%. Kitchens beats benchmarks by 3.8.
Probably not enough to overcome his problems in the western part of the state. Looking at what is out still, he's in toruble.
The endgame is really Hinds and Rankin here.
Probably not enough to overcome his problems in the western part of the state. Looking at what is out still, he's in toruble.
The endgame is really Hinds and Rankin here.
As western Mississippi comes in, nothing is getting clearer. Every completed county since the last spreadsheet update has been Kitchens beat his margins.
It may come down to whether Western MS is more population dense than Eastern MS outside of Jackson... I have no idea. If you now, tell me.
It may come down to whether Western MS is more population dense than Eastern MS outside of Jackson... I have no idea. If you now, tell me.
November 27, 2024 at 2:46 AM
As western Mississippi comes in, nothing is getting clearer. Every completed county since the last spreadsheet update has been Kitchens beat his margins.
It may come down to whether Western MS is more population dense than Eastern MS outside of Jackson... I have no idea. If you now, tell me.
It may come down to whether Western MS is more population dense than Eastern MS outside of Jackson... I have no idea. If you now, tell me.
And then Kitchens beats his benchmark by winning Copiah County by 36 points whereas he needed *checks notes* to lose by less than 5.
It's his home county. It probably isn't enough to save him. It is *technically speaking* the first county flip post-2024 (was Trump+5.
It's his home county. It probably isn't enough to save him. It is *technically speaking* the first county flip post-2024 (was Trump+5.
November 27, 2024 at 2:36 AM
And then Kitchens beats his benchmark by winning Copiah County by 36 points whereas he needed *checks notes* to lose by less than 5.
It's his home county. It probably isn't enough to save him. It is *technically speaking* the first county flip post-2024 (was Trump+5.
It's his home county. It probably isn't enough to save him. It is *technically speaking* the first county flip post-2024 (was Trump+5.