Matti Heino
@heinonmatti.bsky.social
Crisis preparedness 🛡️ Complex systems approach to behaviour change science. Resilience 🔀 Antifragility. PhD social psychology by accident.
E.g. say in pic more is better: if we want people in A to move to E, it might make sense as an intervention strategy to go A->C->D->E instead of attempting to go A->E 🤔
October 27, 2025 at 6:52 PM
E.g. say in pic more is better: if we want people in A to move to E, it might make sense as an intervention strategy to go A->C->D->E instead of attempting to go A->E 🤔
This story is making waves in the media. But even if we ignore potential issues from multiple comparisons, do these CIs make sense?
www.ersnet.org/news-and-fea...
www.ersnet.org/news-and-fea...
October 27, 2025 at 5:23 PM
This story is making waves in the media. But even if we ignore potential issues from multiple comparisons, do these CIs make sense?
www.ersnet.org/news-and-fea...
www.ersnet.org/news-and-fea...
This is pretty great! But what do you mean by "time points" e.g. here? Based on the figure in paper, I'm guessing it's the maximum number of time points any individual has, which I wouldn't guess from the label "time points"...
October 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
This is pretty great! But what do you mean by "time points" e.g. here? Based on the figure in paper, I'm guessing it's the maximum number of time points any individual has, which I wouldn't guess from the label "time points"...
Also, people are never regulated by just one of the (qualitative!) categories. Here's an image of a single person's four distinguishable temporal work motivation profiles.
Disclaimer: just for conceptual illustration, measurements are imperfect, etc.
(source: heinonmatti.github.io/complexity-b...)
Disclaimer: just for conceptual illustration, measurements are imperfect, etc.
(source: heinonmatti.github.io/complexity-b...)
October 17, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Also, people are never regulated by just one of the (qualitative!) categories. Here's an image of a single person's four distinguishable temporal work motivation profiles.
Disclaimer: just for conceptual illustration, measurements are imperfect, etc.
(source: heinonmatti.github.io/complexity-b...)
Disclaimer: just for conceptual illustration, measurements are imperfect, etc.
(source: heinonmatti.github.io/complexity-b...)
Data science du jour: The structure of European preparedness 🫡 Each dot is an individual respondent in a dataset of 27 000 Europeans, reporting on their civil preparedness attitudes and supplies.
October 15, 2025 at 6:54 PM
Data science du jour: The structure of European preparedness 🫡 Each dot is an individual respondent in a dataset of 27 000 Europeans, reporting on their civil preparedness attitudes and supplies.
Fun two days at the #jyuEMBA course, speaking and workshopping about complexity in organisational leadership!
Also did a spontaneous affordance mapping exercise on the carpet, because we didn't have big enough tables 😁
Also did a spontaneous affordance mapping exercise on the carpet, because we didn't have big enough tables 😁
October 8, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Fun two days at the #jyuEMBA course, speaking and workshopping about complexity in organisational leadership!
Also did a spontaneous affordance mapping exercise on the carpet, because we didn't have big enough tables 😁
Also did a spontaneous affordance mapping exercise on the carpet, because we didn't have big enough tables 😁
This commentary should be read as a case study of a more general issue in social psychology, not restricted to intergroup conflict.
July 6, 2025 at 10:34 AM
This commentary should be read as a case study of a more general issue in social psychology, not restricted to intergroup conflict.
Came across an English word that was new to me. Looked it up and turned out it was the device that uses these.
Memories from childhood flushing in: not particular events but smells, emotions, and the excited feeling of burnt fingertips.
Memories from childhood flushing in: not particular events but smells, emotions, and the excited feeling of burnt fingertips.
June 15, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Came across an English word that was new to me. Looked it up and turned out it was the device that uses these.
Memories from childhood flushing in: not particular events but smells, emotions, and the excited feeling of burnt fingertips.
Memories from childhood flushing in: not particular events but smells, emotions, and the excited feeling of burnt fingertips.
Sound check complete! T-minus-25min to the defence of my little doctoral side project.
May 16, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Sound check complete! T-minus-25min to the defence of my little doctoral side project.
This was interesting. Even though windows in COVID rooms were open, air purifiers reduced viral load by ~98%. And look how much virus there was in the corridor:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
May 15, 2025 at 2:53 PM
This was interesting. Even though windows in COVID rooms were open, air purifiers reduced viral load by ~98%. And look how much virus there was in the corridor:
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Actually, frequentist sources brushed it off as being an outlier not worth a second look – assuming thin tails. Meanwhile, various groups of extremists are pointing the finger to fat-tailed distributions. Image from paper in progress.
May 15, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Actually, frequentist sources brushed it off as being an outlier not worth a second look – assuming thin tails. Meanwhile, various groups of extremists are pointing the finger to fat-tailed distributions. Image from paper in progress.
I really like Gemini 2.5-pro(exp) for coding. But this "testimonial" that appeared in a newsletter, is BS. A fern is one of the easiest things to code with publically available examples, and I imagine a prompt saying "make code that visualises a fern" would've worked ages ago.
May 8, 2025 at 9:09 AM
I really like Gemini 2.5-pro(exp) for coding. But this "testimonial" that appeared in a newsletter, is BS. A fern is one of the easiest things to code with publically available examples, and I imagine a prompt saying "make code that visualises a fern" would've worked ages ago.
Thank you! I'm only seeing dunkelzifferfactor now that I'm looking at German websites. I was happy to find this website had data for Baden-Württemberg, but struggled with interpreting the factor.
covidisnotover.info/aktuelle-cor...
covidisnotover.info/aktuelle-cor...
May 6, 2025 at 11:47 AM
Thank you! I'm only seeing dunkelzifferfactor now that I'm looking at German websites. I was happy to find this website had data for Baden-Württemberg, but struggled with interpreting the factor.
covidisnotover.info/aktuelle-cor...
covidisnotover.info/aktuelle-cor...
@lakens.bsky.social just as a curiosity, citation 3 in the authors' response letter is your primer
May 2, 2025 at 9:49 AM
@lakens.bsky.social just as a curiosity, citation 3 in the authors' response letter is your primer
Great reminder by @nntaleb.bsky.social on X. Also, the observation by Nacho that this was conceived of as being "impossible" means there's so much to do in terms of education...
May 1, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Great reminder by @nntaleb.bsky.social on X. Also, the observation by Nacho that this was conceived of as being "impossible" means there's so much to do in terms of education...
The golden time to collect lessons from the Iberian blackout is NOW. Memories will transform as time goes on and new explanations arise. Contact me if community resilience is of interest to you, you're already doing a project, and we don't have to duplicate efforts!
April 29, 2025 at 3:01 PM
The golden time to collect lessons from the Iberian blackout is NOW. Memories will transform as time goes on and new explanations arise. Contact me if community resilience is of interest to you, you're already doing a project, and we don't have to duplicate efforts!
Interesting piece. Started thinking about recent Finnish work suggesting a community resilience framework, which separates acute resilience (immediate response capacities) from basic resilience (e.g. more long-term adaptive capacity, social cohesion, and democratic stability). Curious of thoughts?
April 27, 2025 at 2:04 PM
Interesting piece. Started thinking about recent Finnish work suggesting a community resilience framework, which separates acute resilience (immediate response capacities) from basic resilience (e.g. more long-term adaptive capacity, social cohesion, and democratic stability). Curious of thoughts?
Nice quote from @luca-dellanna.com's newsletter. As complexity of our operating environments increases, individuals must be increasingly supplemented with networked teams. But "The challenge is making sure the teams work together smoothly and efficiently." (necsi.edu/why-teams)
April 24, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Nice quote from @luca-dellanna.com's newsletter. As complexity of our operating environments increases, individuals must be increasingly supplemented with networked teams. But "The challenge is making sure the teams work together smoothly and efficiently." (necsi.edu/why-teams)
Wanted to know if the #H5N1 herds in @helenbranswell.bsky.social's graph were geographically connected:
- The better image is what Manus AI did for about 200 credits (got 1000 as an early adopter gift).
- The mess is what vanilla Claude 3.7 produced.
- The better image is what Manus AI did for about 200 credits (got 1000 as an early adopter gift).
- The mess is what vanilla Claude 3.7 produced.
April 8, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Wanted to know if the #H5N1 herds in @helenbranswell.bsky.social's graph were geographically connected:
- The better image is what Manus AI did for about 200 credits (got 1000 as an early adopter gift).
- The mess is what vanilla Claude 3.7 produced.
- The better image is what Manus AI did for about 200 credits (got 1000 as an early adopter gift).
- The mess is what vanilla Claude 3.7 produced.
Two quotes came to mind:
April 8, 2025 at 2:39 PM
Two quotes came to mind:
April 4, 2025 at 8:49 AM
I'm a trainer in the Finnish 72hours.fi concept and a preparedness researcher, currently writing a funding proposal to address the concept's weak points from a behavioural science perspective. Interested in discussions about making the EU preparedness strategy work!
March 26, 2025 at 9:05 PM
I'm a trainer in the Finnish 72hours.fi concept and a preparedness researcher, currently writing a funding proposal to address the concept's weak points from a behavioural science perspective. Interested in discussions about making the EU preparedness strategy work!
In the Finnish Behavioural Policy Team, we tried to make the point that beneficial, difficult things should be made easier. The point didn't do well in a fight with the narrative that difficult things should be abolished.
web.archive.org/web/20230428...
web.archive.org/web/20230428...
March 24, 2025 at 11:19 AM
In the Finnish Behavioural Policy Team, we tried to make the point that beneficial, difficult things should be made easier. The point didn't do well in a fight with the narrative that difficult things should be abolished.
web.archive.org/web/20230428...
web.archive.org/web/20230428...