Hannah Slaughter
@hannahslaughter.bsky.social
Senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, mainly covering the labour market.
The employers named today cover household names like Go Outdoors and Holland & Barrett as well as small local businesses. And the scale of underpayment also varies, from tens to thousands of pounds per worker: at the extreme end, four employers short-changed one of their workers by over £10,000.
October 17, 2025 at 3:03 PM
The employers named today cover household names like Go Outdoors and Holland & Barrett as well as small local businesses. And the scale of underpayment also varies, from tens to thousands of pounds per worker: at the extreme end, four employers short-changed one of their workers by over £10,000.
Benefits are vital, but often fail to adequately protect living standards. 70%+ of people receiving the health and care elements of Universal Credit face material deprivation, people lose Carer’s Allowance entirely once they earn >£196 a week, and the system can be complex for claimants to navigate.
July 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Benefits are vital, but often fail to adequately protect living standards. 70%+ of people receiving the health and care elements of Universal Credit face material deprivation, people lose Carer’s Allowance entirely once they earn >£196 a week, and the system can be complex for claimants to navigate.
To get the flexibility they need, disabled people and carers often turn to flexible contracts, self-employment and the gig economy. But these can come with downsides such as unpredictable hours and a lack of sick pay.
July 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
To get the flexibility they need, disabled people and carers often turn to flexible contracts, self-employment and the gig economy. But these can come with downsides such as unpredictable hours and a lack of sick pay.
One reason is limitations on paid work – and this extends beyond not being able to work at all. For example, 58% of disabled workers say their physical health limits the kind of work they can do, and 41% of working carers have had to cut their hours due to caring.
![“I got a job more locally and it was working part time, four days a week, so it gave [my wife] some comfort that if I, if something happened, I would be able to get to her.”
(Focus group participant, working part time, caring for disabled partner)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3owuy7hp7owu7u6mev5mu7wf/bafkreiduzbngrpzep23g22hftmqaxatpafgpvbhoufno5lfqjqdgsqezbi@jpeg)
![“[My health condition] would affect [me] if I was working with the public. You need to be fully on form, don’t you? And I’m just, one day I’m on, then I’m off.”
(Focus group participant, not in paid work, with mental and physical health conditions)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:3owuy7hp7owu7u6mev5mu7wf/bafkreih5f4m636g37ui2pxckiv4mbmitoj6zhrcutasvpnllpt2aak2kmy@jpeg)
July 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
One reason is limitations on paid work – and this extends beyond not being able to work at all. For example, 58% of disabled workers say their physical health limits the kind of work they can do, and 41% of working carers have had to cut their hours due to caring.
Disability and caring can come with a big living standards penalty. Families with both a disabled member and a carer have a £3,300 income gap compared to similar families with neither, rising to £7,600 if we strip out disability benefits that just cover extra costs rather than replace income.
July 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Disability and caring can come with a big living standards penalty. Families with both a disabled member and a carer have a £3,300 income gap compared to similar families with neither, rising to £7,600 if we strip out disability benefits that just cover extra costs rather than replace income.
Disability and caring often overlap. Overall, just over a third of adults in low-to-middle income families are disabled or a carer, and 4% (800k people) are both. 43% of low-to-middle income families (5.6m) include a carer or a disabled person, and 9% of these families (1.0m) include both.
July 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Disability and caring often overlap. Overall, just over a third of adults in low-to-middle income families are disabled or a carer, and 4% (800k people) are both. 43% of low-to-middle income families (5.6m) include a carer or a disabled person, and 9% of these families (1.0m) include both.
Caring responsibilities are also more common among low-to-middle income families. 1 in 10 working-age adults in low-to-middle income families provide 5+ hours a week of unpaid care, with women and older working-age adults most likely to be carers.
July 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Caring responsibilities are also more common among low-to-middle income families. 1 in 10 working-age adults in low-to-middle income families provide 5+ hours a week of unpaid care, with women and older working-age adults most likely to be carers.
Disability is concentrated among low-to-middle income Britain. Working-age adults in these families are twice as likely to be disabled as those on higher incomes (30% vs 15%), and disability rates have risen by around half over the past 30 years.
July 18, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Disability is concentrated among low-to-middle income Britain. Working-age adults in these families are twice as likely to be disabled as those on higher incomes (30% vs 15%), and disability rates have risen by around half over the past 30 years.
And some pay measures paint a stronger picture of pay growth - for example, median earnings according to HMRC’s payroll data grew by 6.2 per cent over the year to April.
June 10, 2025 at 8:41 AM
And some pay measures paint a stronger picture of pay growth - for example, median earnings according to HMRC’s payroll data grew by 6.2 per cent over the year to April.
But on shorter term measures, there was a small uptick in private sector pay growth in the latest data - quarter-on-quarter growth ticked up to the equivalent of 4.1% a year in the three months to April, up from 3.3% in the three months to March.
June 10, 2025 at 8:41 AM
But on shorter term measures, there was a small uptick in private sector pay growth in the latest data - quarter-on-quarter growth ticked up to the equivalent of 4.1% a year in the three months to April, up from 3.3% in the three months to March.
We’d expect this kind of labour market weakening to show up in pay growth, albeit with a lag. There’s some sign of that happening - nominal growth in regular pay has fallen back to its lowest rate since September (5.2%), and real pay growth is down to 1.4% (it was above 2% as recently as February).
June 10, 2025 at 8:41 AM
We’d expect this kind of labour market weakening to show up in pay growth, albeit with a lag. There’s some sign of that happening - nominal growth in regular pay has fallen back to its lowest rate since September (5.2%), and real pay growth is down to 1.4% (it was above 2% as recently as February).
Why is employment falling? We don’t have solid evidence yet, but we’re seeing big falls in low-paying sectors like hospitality and retail (disregard the May data for now), consistent with this being linked to the NICs increase.
June 10, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Why is employment falling? We don’t have solid evidence yet, but we’re seeing big falls in low-paying sectors like hospitality and retail (disregard the May data for now), consistent with this being linked to the NICs increase.
Based on the April data, we estimate a 16-64 employment rate of 75.0 per cent - now similar to what the LFS is showing. A falling employment rate is being driven by both a rising population and, for the past six months, by falling employment.
June 10, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Based on the April data, we estimate a 16-64 employment rate of 75.0 per cent - now similar to what the LFS is showing. A falling employment rate is being driven by both a rising population and, for the past six months, by falling employment.
Starting with jobs, the number of employees in the PAYE data fell by a sizeable 55k in April. (There was also a big 109k fall in the May data but this is very likely to be revised).
June 10, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Starting with jobs, the number of employees in the PAYE data fell by a sizeable 55k in April. (There was also a big 109k fall in the May data but this is very likely to be revised).
Despite this welcome recovery, we shouldn’t forget just how sluggish the last few decades have been. Real average weekly earnings today remain just £12 higher than pre-financial crisis levels – and £278 below where they would be if they had followed their pre-financial crisis trend.
February 18, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Despite this welcome recovery, we shouldn’t forget just how sluggish the last few decades have been. Real average weekly earnings today remain just £12 higher than pre-financial crisis levels – and £278 below where they would be if they had followed their pre-financial crisis trend.
Overall, 2024 was the best year for real-terms pay growth in two-decades (excluding the pandemic years). Real wages grew by 2.2 per cent between the 2023 and 2024 calendar years – the strongest pay growth since 2004.
February 18, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Overall, 2024 was the best year for real-terms pay growth in two-decades (excluding the pandemic years). Real wages grew by 2.2 per cent between the 2023 and 2024 calendar years – the strongest pay growth since 2004.
But of course, strong wage growth is welcome news for workers. Nominal earnings growth of 5.9% is well above current inflation, meaning that workers are benefiting from a healthy real-terms pay increase of 2.5%.
February 18, 2025 at 10:03 AM
But of course, strong wage growth is welcome news for workers. Nominal earnings growth of 5.9% is well above current inflation, meaning that workers are benefiting from a healthy real-terms pay increase of 2.5%.
The Bank will be particularly interested in the fast private sector wage growth and the impact this might have on interest rates. On a shorter-term measure, private sector wage growth looks even stronger, with wages growing by the equivalent of 7.6% a year.
February 18, 2025 at 10:03 AM
The Bank will be particularly interested in the fast private sector wage growth and the impact this might have on interest rates. On a shorter-term measure, private sector wage growth looks even stronger, with wages growing by the equivalent of 7.6% a year.
Turning to pay, and there’s no sign yet of wage growth slowing. In the latest data (from December), nominal wage growth was strong in both the private and public sectors, at 6.2% and 4.7% respectively.
February 18, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Turning to pay, and there’s no sign yet of wage growth slowing. In the latest data (from December), nominal wage growth was strong in both the private and public sectors, at 6.2% and 4.7% respectively.
It’s worth noting that some business surveys (e.g. PMIs) imply a more worrying outlook for employment. That’s not currently appearing in this data, but we should keep an eye on trends over the next few months, especially given some early warning signs like a recent fall in hospitality employment.
February 18, 2025 at 10:03 AM
It’s worth noting that some business surveys (e.g. PMIs) imply a more worrying outlook for employment. That’s not currently appearing in this data, but we should keep an eye on trends over the next few months, especially given some early warning signs like a recent fall in hospitality employment.
This is combined with a fast-growing population - so we estimate that the 16+ employment rate (we use a modelled version since the one from the Labour Force Survey is currently unreliable) has fallen to 61.0 per cent, down from a recent peak of 61.8 per cent in March 2023.
February 18, 2025 at 10:03 AM
This is combined with a fast-growing population - so we estimate that the 16+ employment rate (we use a modelled version since the one from the Labour Force Survey is currently unreliable) has fallen to 61.0 per cent, down from a recent peak of 61.8 per cent in March 2023.
Starting with employment: following strong growth in employee jobs until the middle of last year, payrolled employment has flatlined, and fell slightly (by 36k) between May and December. (The data shows a slight tick up in January, but this latest data point often gets revised quite a bit.)
February 18, 2025 at 10:03 AM
Starting with employment: following strong growth in employee jobs until the middle of last year, payrolled employment has flatlined, and fell slightly (by 36k) between May and December. (The data shows a slight tick up in January, but this latest data point often gets revised quite a bit.)
This means when we look at shorter-term pay changes, the recent trend of cooling private sector pay growth has gone into reverse. Over the three months to October, private sector pay grew by the equivalent of 5.6% a year, up from 4.6% over the three months to September.
December 17, 2024 at 9:47 AM
This means when we look at shorter-term pay changes, the recent trend of cooling private sector pay growth has gone into reverse. Over the three months to October, private sector pay grew by the equivalent of 5.6% a year, up from 4.6% over the three months to September.
This has mainly been driven by the private sector - public sector pay was flat between September and October. (Though this measure excludes bonuses and one-off payments - if you include those, public sector pay grew as well.)
December 17, 2024 at 9:47 AM
This has mainly been driven by the private sector - public sector pay was flat between September and October. (Though this measure excludes bonuses and one-off payments - if you include those, public sector pay grew as well.)
Perhaps surprisingly, a weaker labour market doesn’t yet seem to be showing up when it comes to pay packets. In the latest data pay growth has ticked up to 5.2% (in cash terms) meaning a healthy real-terms growth rate of 2.2%.
December 17, 2024 at 9:47 AM
Perhaps surprisingly, a weaker labour market doesn’t yet seem to be showing up when it comes to pay packets. In the latest data pay growth has ticked up to 5.2% (in cash terms) meaning a healthy real-terms growth rate of 2.2%.