In this episode of "ask ian," **Ian Bremmer** breaks down Notre Dame football. * * * After finishing 10–2 and missing the championship tournament, Notre Dame withdrew from bowl-game consideration altogether, a decision Ian says is less about football and more about branding, politics, and playing by your own rules. The school has already secured a special deal guaranteeing tournament entry next year if they finish in the top 12. Ian jokes that Notre Dame’s strategy resembles American foreign policy: dominating the unranked, avoiding the toughest opponents, and still commanding all the airtime. "Maybe they are America’s team,” he says.

In this Quick Take, **Ian Bremmer** unpacks the **Trump** administration’s new national security strategy, particularly its heightened focus on Europe. * * * He says that the document’s frequent references to Europe signal a strategic reassessment of transatlantic ties, stressing that “an exit from Europe and certainly a weaker EU would be in American interests." Ian also notes Russia’s response, pointing out that the Kremlin’s alignment with the US strategy. With new voices shaping American policy, he warns that the coming months will test how Europe and the United States navigate emerging points of tension ahead.

Egyptians are voting this month in parliamentary elections that aren’t expected to change who’s in charge, but could allow President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to rule beyond 2030. 596 seats are up for grabs in Egypt’s House of Representatives, but mostly _parties friendly to his regime_ made the ballot in an election rife with irregularities. * * * So why are no Western leaders calling out this undemocratic process? Because Egypt has become too strategically indispensable for anyone to challenge el-Sisi’s authoritarian grip. **The structure is rigged from the start.** Egypt’s House of Representatives, the country’s _primary legislative body_, consists of 596 members serving five-year terms. Twenty-eight seats are appointed directly by the President. Of the remainder, 284 are filled by individual candidates, and 284 seats are awarded through a closed-list, winner-takes-all system across four mega-districts, where any party that wins more than 50 percent of the vote takes every seat in the district. In a country where the president won the last election with 97% of the vote, this winner-take-all system for the mega-districts has been criticized for _favouring the ruling party_ and those loyal to the regime. **Irregularities abound.** The first round of voting in November was marred by allegations of vote-buying and illegal campaigning that saw a total of 45 district elections _annulled_ and rerun. There were also claims the government _manipulated drug test_ results to exclude candidates. Some opposition figures were _barred_ based on new military service requirements. El-Sisi even ordered an investigation into the vote after _external reports warned_ against ignoring public anger about the process. Only candidates from the _National Unified List_participated in the mega-district elections, however, ensuring victory for pro-government parties in those seat-heavy areas. Worse yet, candidates allegedly had to pay between 30 million and 70 million Egyptian pounds ($USD 629,504 - 1.4m) to be included in the unified list, which comprised 12 pro-government parties. **Why does this election matter?** Because el-Sisi reportedly wants to ask the House of Representatives to pass a constitutional amendment to enable him to rule past his current term limit of 2030. That amendment would then be put to the people in a referendum, as was the case in 2019, when Egyptians _voted_ to extend el-Sisi’s term until 2030 with nearly 90% in favor. **So why does the world stay silent?** Western and Gulf governments fear a collapse of the Egyptian state more than they fear its authoritarian drift. The nation of 110 million people struggles with _high poverty_ levels and depends on IMF support and foreign aid from the Gulf. A destabilised Egypt could threaten critical Suez shipping lanes and endanger the management of European migration. It could also inspire other movements in the region, much as the “Arab Spring” did in 2011, which saw the political arm of the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood win Egyptian elections in 2012 before being ousted in a coup by the military the following year. US President **Donald Trump** also considers Egypt a key player in talks to stabilise Gaza, mediate between Israel and Hamas, and manage the flow of aid at the Rafah crossing into Gaza. Washington is reportedly also trying to _broker a summit_ between Israeli Prime Minister **Benjamin Netanyahu** and el-Sisi to help normalize relations between the two countries. In all these contexts, it appears, continuity trumps concerns over democracy and human rights.

**31.9%:** Citizens of Hong Kong still aren’t enthused about the “patriots only” system of pseudo-democracy, as just _31.9%_ of the city’s 4.1 million registered voters showed up at the polls in Sunday’s legislative election. China implemented this system – whereby only pre-approved candidates can run – in 2021. Turnout in the last election before this new rule, back in 2016, was 58%. **2:** Tensions between two old rivals in East Asia continue to rise. Chinese fighter jets _twice_ fixed their radar on Japanese military planes that were flying over international waters over the weekend, the Japanese government said. Beijing disputed Tokyo’s account. Japan is _frustrated_ that the Trump administration hasn’t offered more support amid this _growing dispute_. **** * * * **$1.08 trillion:** China’s trade annual surplus climbed past the trillion dollar mark this last year, reaching _$1.08 trillion_. No country has reached such a level of exports before. The record comes despite US President **Donald Trump’** s tariffs on China, which Chinese companies have bypassed by shifting the transshipment or final assembly of products to other countries. It is also due to China now selling twice as much to the EU as it buys. **8:** First the jewel robbery at the Louvre, and now, two different men stole _eight_ engravings from French artist Matisse and five from Brazilian painter Candido Portinari from a library in São Paulo, Brazil on Sunday. **$82.7 billion:** Netflix, the world’s largest streaming service, _announced_ on Friday that it would purchase Warner Bros. Discovery, which owns HBO Max. However, the deal could be over before it begins: Trump said yesterday that the deal “ _could be a problem_” because of Netflix’s existing market share in streaming. His administration must greenlight the deal before it goes through.

### Fighting flares on the Thai-Cambodia border Thailand and Cambodia’s ceasefire is on the verge of collapse. Strikes were launched across their disputed border _today_, following clashes over the weekend that resulted in the death of a Thai soldier. Both sides accused the other of firing first. Thailand and Cambodia have been fighting along their border for decades, but declared a ceasefire after pressure from US President **Donald Trump** in July. The flare-up could _jeopardize_ ongoing trade talks with the US for both countries. We will be watching to see whether that threat is enough to incentivize restraint, or if the hostilities escalate. * * * ### Trump makes ties to “Monroe Doctrine” official US President**Donald Trump** has taken an alternative approach to foreign policy from some of his predecessors: He has reduced ties with Europe – he _hasn’t approved_ any new Ukraine funding – while bombing ships coming from Venezuela and Colombia and building up a military presence in the region. Now, his approach has _become official_: the White House released a national security _strategy paper_, which states that the administration will enforce a “Trump Corollary” to the “Monroe Doctrine,” an 1823-policy that asserted that the Americas were off-limits to European interference. The document also pans Europe, and declares that the continent must “stand on its own feet.” Historians may be concerned: Europe has previously struggled to get along without US involvement… ### Benin’s government says it thwarted a coup effort Several West African countries face _threats of insurgency_ from Islamist militants, but for Benin – a major cotton producer in the region – the problem is internal: President **Patrice Talon** said on Sunday it _foiled a coup attempt_ from mutinous government soldiers. The dissenting soldiers had stormed into the national television offices and declared a government takeover live on air, arguing that Talon hasn’t managed Benin’s security very well – the army has suffered major losses in the northern region. Talon had a helping hand from Nigeria, whose fighter jets helped to quell the coup. There is now a manhunt for the _perpetrators_ of the coup efforts.

Computer scientist and Nobel laureate Geoffrey Hinton joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast to talk about artificial intelligence, the technology transforming our society faster than anything humans have ever built. The question is: how fast is too fast? Hinton is known as the “Godfather of AI.” He helped build the neural networks that made today’s generative AI tools possible and that work earned him the 2024 Nobel Prize in physics. But recently, he’s turned from a tech evangelist to a whistleblower, warning that the technology he helped create will displace millions of jobs and eventually destroy humanity itself. * * * The Nobel laureate joins Ian to discuss some of the biggest threats from AI: Mass job loss, widening inequality, social unrest, autonomous weapons, and eventually something far more dire: AI that becomes smarter than humans and might not let us turn it off. But he also sees a path forward: if we can model good behavior and program ‘maternal instincts’ into AI, could we avoid a worst-case scenario? "They're going to be much smarter than us. We are not going to be fully in control anymore," says Hinton, "We have to somehow figure out how to make them care more about us than they do about themselves." _Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on_ _Apple Podcasts_ _,__Spotify_ _,__Stitcher_ ___, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published_

Is AI coming for your job or … not? On Ian Explains, **Ian Bremmer** takes a look at whether the AI jobs apocalypse is truly upon us and the future of the global labor market. Plenty of companies have announced mass layoffs recently—Target, UPS, Microsoft, and IBM have all cut thousands of jobs. And many are pointing to ‘AI efficiency’ as the reason. But, so far, the data doesn’t show that AI is causing mass unemployment. Yes, certain sectors are getting squeezed by AI (entry-level coders, for example) but other factors, like tariffs, inflation, and US monetary tightening are also having a direct impact. * * * But that doesn’t mean AI won’t bring big changes. AI adoption is happening faster than any technology in human history. Faster than the internet, faster than electricity. And that speed means turbulence. AI could turbocharge productivity, create new industries, and help developing countries leapfrog stages of development. But it could also eliminate whole swaths of workers or widen income inequality between countries. What happens next depends less on the tech, and more on what governments and companies decide to do with it. **GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).** **New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode:****subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel****and turn on notifications (🔔).**

What happens when AI becomes smarter than humans? On GZERO World, **Geoffrey Hinton** , widely known as the ‘Godfather of AI,’ joins **Ian Bremmer** to talk about how the technology he helped create could wipe out millions of jobs, destabilize societies, and eventually take over. Hinton helped build the neural network that led to today’s generative AI tools like ChatGPT. That work won him the 2024 Nobel Prize in physics. But the godfather has become a whistleblower. Now he warns AI could wipe out humanity completely. * * * Hinton and Bremmer talk about the biggest risks from AI, including mass job displacement, tech companies sidelining safety concerns in the race for superintelligence, and the long-term existential risks. Hinton warns that unless humans start thinking fundamentally differently about AI, the consequences will be disastrous. He compares AI models to alien beings, who need to be taught empathy, along with intelligence. If we can find a way to make AI truly care about humanity, can we avoid a worse-case scenario. "AI going to be much smarter than us. We are not going to be fully in control anymore," warns Hinton, "If they do get smarter than us, I think there's a significant chance they'll take over." **GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).** ******New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.****Don't miss an episode:****subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel****and turn on notifications (🔔).**

Remember Xinjiang? There was a time, not long ago, when China’s crackdown on the Uyghurs, a Muslim minority group living in Xinjiang province in Northwestern China, was a hot topic – in the media, among human rights activists, and even among the world’s most powerful governments and international organizations. In 2021, the first Trump administration, in one of its final acts, declared China’s treatment of the Uyghurs a “genocide.” A year later, the UN _alleged_ “crimes against humanity.” On both sides of the Atlantic, governments slapped human rights sanctions on China, and imposed restrictions on the import of products believed to have been made with forced labor in Xinjiang. Some of the most prominent Western brands _were blasted_ for using Xinjiang products. **But these days the attention has faded.** Have a look at this chart showing the share of media articles about the Uyghurs in major US and global English language media: High profile leaders in the US and Europe have said little about this issue in many months. Other Muslim majority nations that once spoke out – such as Turkey and Indonesia – have gone silent on the issue as well. How did the lights go down on this story? **First, a refresher:** A decade ago, the Chinese government began a severe crackdown on Xinjiang, in response to the rise of a Uyghur separatist movement that had ties to international jihadists. After a knife-wielding separatist killed dozens at a Xinjiang train station in 2014, President Xi Jinping visited the region, telling officials to use “the tools of dictatorship” to ensure stability and calm. As many as one million Uyghurs people were thrown into an archipelago of “re-education camps,” many for offenses as mild as observing Muslim holidays, praying, or speaking with relatives in Muslim-majority countries abroad. “Campers” were cut off from their families and language, ordered to renounce Islam, and forced to pledge loyalty to the Communist Party. Many were sent to labor camps. Survivors told of torture, sexual abuse, and forced sterilizations. Meanwhile, Xi’s government used the region to test advanced new surveillance tools, social control technologies, and social credit schemes. Ethnic Chinese from elsewhere in the country were brought in to dilute the Uyghur population. The government invested billions in infrastructure – Xinjiang _lies along key “Belt and Road” trade routes_ linking China to Central and Western Asia. While Beijing initially denied the existence of the camps, it later said they were merely vocational schools. Around 2019, it promised to close them altogether. Still, hundreds of conventional prisons remain open, and as many as half a million Uyghurs are still held in them according to _a recent report_ by the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. **Why is so little of this in the headlines these days?** Experts point to several reasons. First, there has been more competition for what Georgetown scholar James Millward calls “atrocity attention.” Millward, who has written extensively on Xinjiang, says the wars in Ukraine and Gaza – rife with their own human rights violations, and far easier to cover than remote, tightly-controlled Xinjiang – have drawn the eyes of the world’s journalists and activists away from Northwestern China. Second, China has successfully reframed the global perception of Xinjiang in a kinder, gentler way, relying on surveillance technologies rather than overt policing to control the population, inviting in _travel influencers_ to post videos of carefully orchestrated Uyghur cultural festivals and breathtaking natural vistas, all while using China’s economic heft to dissuade foreign governments from speaking out. Lastly, experts point to changes in US foreign policy which have rippled throughout the world. The Trump administration’s _de-emphasis_ of human rights, coupled with moves to rework long-standing US trade relationships in line with the “America First” approach, have raised the stakes for speaking about Xinjiang – after all, if the world’s number one economy is suddenly seen as an unreliable trade partner, other countries are less willing to press the world’s _number two_ economy, China, on human rights issues. “I think we are unfortunately at a moment historically,” says Maya Wang, Deputy Asia Director at Human Rights Watch in Washington, DC, “where human rights are just falling out of the foreign policy agenda entirely.”

### Putin leaves India with not much to show for it Despite the lavish ceremony, Russian President **Vladimir Putin** and Indian Prime Minister **Narendra Modi’** s meeting produced few concrete outcomes. India and Russia highlighted their “ _special_” partnership and signed smaller agreements on minerals, pharmaceuticals, shipping, and trade frameworks. But on the most sensitive issues – oil and defense – no breakthroughs emerged. India, under heavy US pressure to curb Russian oil purchases, offered no public commitments, leaving future energy ties unclear. Speculation about major weapons deals also went unfulfilled as Delhi balances Moscow with Washington. Meanwhile, a US delegation is _expected_ to make its own trip to India to discuss trade next week. * * * ### Kyrgyzstan tumbles away from democracy Kyrgyzstan, once Central Asia’s lone (if imperfect) democracy, is rapidly sliding into authoritarianism under President **Sadyr Japarov.** His allies dominated the latest parliamentary election after he rewrote rules to weaken political parties and suppress opposition, changes that limited turnout to just _36.9%._ Japarov, who rose to power after being freed from prison during the 2020 unrest, has banned the media, jailed rivals, and scrapped presidential term limits. He has pushed a Russian-style “foreign agents” law, deepening alignment with Moscow while helping Russia evade sanctions. Despite shrinking freedoms, strong economic growth and fatigue after multiple revolutions keep him popular — leaving Kyrgyzstan’s democratic future increasingly uncertain. ### UAE-backed separatist group breaks open Yemeni civil war Yemen’s decade-long civil war had reached something of a stalemate, until the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) _seized control_ of large parts of the oil-rich Hadramout region from the Yemeni government this week. The STC is rival to both the Saudi-backed government forces and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, meaning the war-torn Arabian state is now the site of a proxy war between a trio of Middle East powers. The STC now plans to move east into neighboring Al-Mahra. Its main plan, though, may be broader: they reportedly wish to stop Saudi Arabia from reaching a settlement with the Houthis.

**23,900:** There is finally some daylight in Honduras’ presidential election, as former Tegucigalpa Mayor **Nasry Asfura** – the far-right candidate whom US President **Donald Trump** endorsed – pulled ahead of former sports broadcaster **Salvador Nasralla** by _23,900 votes_. With 87% of tally sheets counted, Asfura is now at 40.25%, while Nasralla – who is _crying foul_ about the count – is at 39.39%. There is no runoff – whoever gets the most votes wins. * * * **4:** There may be a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, but the grievances among certain European nations towards Israel has not ended. _Four countries_ – Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain – announced they will boycott next year’s Eurovision song contest after Israel were allowed to compete. This boycott also means the local broadcasters in these countries won’t show the competition. **37%:** Only _37%_ of immigrants arrested in major ICE raids this year had a previous conviction, and just 7% had a violent conviction. Another 30% had criminal charges pending, while 33% had no criminal charges at all. The data in certain cities is more stark: 84% of those arrested in Washington, D.C., had no criminal charges against them. **5.25%:** India’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate yet again amid surging economic growth and low inflation, putting it at _5.25%_. Reserve Bank of India Governor **Sanjay Malhotra** has now cut the benchmark rate by 1.25 percentage points since he came into office a year ago. India’s domestic-focused economy has made it less vulnerable to US tariffs, allowing for this “Goldilocks” period.

### Indonesia identifies aggravator of Sumatra flood deaths After the death toll from cyclone-induced floods in Sumatra surpassed 800 – making it the most deadly natural disaster to hit the Indonesian island since the 2004 tsunami – the Indonesian government has _pledged to take action_ against mining firms that illegally cleared forests, which may have added to the potency of the floods. The environment ministry will also _query_ logging and palm plantations after logs _turned into projectiles_ during the tropical storm. Will it be enough? Some locals are furious with the government for ignoring their protests over deforestation – North Sumatra lost 28% of the tree-covered area of its tree-covered area from 2001 to 2024, according to a monitoring group, contributing to the devastation over the weekend. * * * ### Tunisian crackdown widens Police on Thursday _arrested_ opposition leader **Ahmed Nejib Chebbi** just days after he was sentenced to 12 years in prison in a mass trial of government critics that human rights experts say was a sham. On Tuesday, leading human rights lawyer **Ayachi Hammami** , a former government official himself, was also arrested. Tunisia, the birthplace of the Arab spring in 2011, has been _sliding swiftly back towards authoritarianism_under the presidency of **Kais Saied** , a constitutional lawyer _known as “robocop”_ for his lack of charisma. He suspended parliament in 2021, and has ruled virtually unopposed since then. ### Washington hosts DRC-Rwanda peace ceremony The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s President**Félix Tshisekedi** and his Rwandan counterpart **Paul Kagame** will _sign_ a symbolic US-brokered peace deal in Washington, even as heavy fighting between Congolese forces and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels continues in eastern DRC. The process first began in June, but requires Rwanda to withdraw M23 troops and the DRC to eradicate a militia of Hutu extremists within its borders. Neither has yet complied and parallel talks between the Congolese government and the M23 have stalled. Alongside the peace proceedings, the US is also eyeing Congo’s vast mineral wealth.

**4.8 million:** Child deaths are set to rise for the first time this millennium, with _4.8 million_ children under five projected to die this year amid sharp drops in foreign aid. Global health spending is down 25% as major donors scale back disease programs, while vaccine skepticism is driving declines in immunization. **** * * * **6,500:** Up to _6,500_ people in Kolwezi, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, risk displacement from the EU- and US-backed Lobito Corridor, a major rail and infrastructure project meant to speed exports of critical minerals. **7-1:** The Vatican Commission voted _7-1_ on Thursday against allowing women to serve as deacons, arguing that historical research and theological investigation precludes women from becoming deacons. Advocates for change argued otherwise, noting that women had served in the clergy – Paul the Apostle referenced a deacon called “Phoebe” in one of his letters. **48:** The draw for next year’s soccer World Cup will take place tomorrow at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C., a ceremony that will determine which countries in the _48-team_ tournament will face each other in the opening round – known as the group stage. Six of the 48 World Cup spots remain up for grabs, in what will be the largest-ever iteration of this global tournament.

After months of rumors, **Nigel Farage** has reportedly said the quiet part out loud: the Reform UK leader told donors that he plans for his far-right party to join forces with the center-right Conservative Party, according to the _Financial Times_. If the two parties strike such a deal, it will likely mean the British right will return to power at the next election, which will happen no later than May 2029. It would be the first time in recent memory that the establishment center-right party of a major European country agreed to share power with a far-right populist upstart. * * * Until now, establishment parties __ in Western Europe have refused to entertain such a move. Centrist groups in Germany, for example, have consistently refused to go into coalition with the surging far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, so Chancellor **Friedrich Merz** has to make do with a _fragile alliance_ with the center-left Social Democrats. In France, the center-right Republicans – the de-facto party of former Presidents **Jacques Chirac** and **Nicolas Sarkozy** – _dumped_ its leader last year for making a deal with the far-right National Rally (RN). In Portugal, the ruling center-right alliance has _refused_ to make a deal with the upstart far-right Chega party, even as it repeatedly fails to draw enough votes in recent elections to win a majority. **Why haven’t these countries done this?** For one thing, the center right and far right disagree on many issues, notably on Ukraine, immigration, the remit of the European Union, and liberalism – and establishment parties are terrified that these populist upstarts will undo everything they’ve built over the last few decades. There’s also a tactical aspect: center-right parties may fear that they would lose voters to center-left groups if they made such a pact. Meanwhile, some far-right leaders in Western Europe – Farage, RN frontman **Jordan Bardella** , and Alternative for Germany head **Alice Weidel** – may be eyeing power for themselves, as each of their _parties_ _now_ _leads_ in the polls. Some issues are more specific to individual countries. Farage, for example, distrusts the Tories on the personal level: he felt that former Prime Minister **Boris Johnson** _betrayed_ a _pact_ they made ahead of the 2019 election by allowing immigration and implementing a “softer” exit from the European Union. In France, the antipathy between the center-right and the far-right is _intergenerational_. The German “firewall” that precludes centrist parties from building coalitions with far-right groups is there at least in part to prevent a repeat of 1933 and the Nazi takeover. **Why the change in the United Kingdom?** First off, Reform UK is surging in the polls, streaming clear of both the Conservatives and the ruling Labour Party as immigration _replaces_ health care as the top issue in the United Kingdom. But the reason for a potential right-wing alliance in the United Kingdom is also a systematic one. The United Kingdom has a first-past-the-post system, meaning you can win any seat with a simple plurality. For example, in South West Norfolk the Labour candidate _won the 2024 race with just 11,847 votes_ (less than 27%) to unseat former Prime Minister **Liz Truss** , who split the right-leaning voters with a Reform UK candidate. This has ramifications nationwide: Labour won nearly two thirds of all seats in 2024, despite winning barely a third of the vote. Nonetheless, if you add together the polling numbers for center-right and far-right parties in Western European nations, it would be enough for them – in coalition – to win outright majorities. Taking the United Kingdom as a case in point, Reform UK and the Conservative would combine for 45% of the vote. No single party has achieved such a figure since 1970. Even allowing for some leaking of voters, this coalition would likely be the biggest party. **Be careful what you wish for.** There is an example of the center-right making a deal with the far-right: Dutch Prime Minister **Dick Schoof** _struck_ a deal with far-right leader **Geert Wilders** to go into a coalition government in 2024. Less than a year later, the government _collapsed_, as Wilders exited the coalition in protest against its asylum policy. This move didn’t bear fruit, either: Wilders’ party lost seats in the October election. **Shifting leverage.** The center right across Western Europe may soon be running out of options, though. The UK Conservatives had their worst performance in history last year. The French Republicans have become a fringe group. And while the center-right Christian Democrats hold power in Germany, the coalition is already cracking – the hard-left bailed Merz out this week during a pension-reform vote. Deal or no deal, these parties must change – in a meaningful fashion – to stay relevant. “The Conservative Party is changing,” the Tory leader **Kemi Badenoch** said in her first speech after she won the January leadership race. A year later, with talk of a historic tie up with Reform, it may change far more than anyone could possibly have imagined.

Nearly four years into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the push to end the war is intensifying. The past few weeks produced not one but two proposals. Summits convene near daily. American envoys are shuttling between Kyiv and Moscow. Public displays of applause for President Trump's efforts to stop the bloodshed while everyone scrambles to shape the terms. * * * Yet despite the flurry of diplomatic activity, the odds of a ceasefire remain slim. Not in the coming weeks, and probably not for many months to come. The reason is straightforward: Russia and Ukraine still have fundamentally incompatible goals, and neither side has found sufficient reason to compromise yet. Trump's singular focus on getting a deal no matter the details isn't changing that calculus. The US president wants to end this war regardless of the consequences for Ukraine or Europe. That's been a priority throughout his second term, and he's annoyed it hasn't panned out already. When you want to get a deal at the lowest possible cost and don't particularly care about the terms or outcomes (either short or long term), the path of least resistance is to pressure the weaker party. That weaker party, of course, is Ukraine. Not just because it has a smaller economy, population, and military than Russia. But also because Kyiv is currently caught up in a corruption scandal that recently claimed President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Trump and some of his team know Zelensky is in a challenging position domestically and are betting that pressing him harder will be even more likely than usual to yield results. What they apparently don’t understand: Zelensky’s weakness makes concessions harder, not easier. Sure, recent polling shows only one-quarter of Ukrainians now want to fight until total victory – a dramatic reversal from the war’s early years. But the same polls show most Ukrainians still want an end to the war on Ukrainian, not Russian, terms. Even if he was so inclined, a more politically vulnerable Zelensky is less able to support a deal that smells like capitulation when his own people and military continue to overwhelmingly oppose it. For its part, Russia knows it’s in a stronger position and isn’t trying to reach terms Ukraine might accept. In fact, President Putin isn’t trying to end the war at all right now. He believes Russia can achieve better outcomes on the battlefield than at the negotiating table. Russian forces are making slow, grinding progress in the Donbas. The costs are enormous – tens of thousands of casualties, economic strain, international isolation – but Putin has shown he's willing to bear them, and he’s convinced that time is on Russia’s side. What Putin is doing by putting forward maximalist demands he knows Kyiv can’t possibly accept – de jure recognition of Russia's territorial annexations, Ukrainian neutrality with no meaningful security guarantees, effective limits on Ukraine's sovereignty – is exploiting Trump's impatience for a deal. The goal isn’t to negotiate in good faith but to look constructive to Trump and sympathetic European leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Slovakia’s Robert Fico in the hopes that Washington will blame Ukraine for the diplomatic failure. In Putin’s best-case scenario, this gets Russia two things: greater impunity in its attacks on Ukraine without worrying about American blowback, and a more divided and weaker NATO. But Putin’s strategy of appearing constructive while rejecting real compromise has limits. Trump has already shown he can turn on Russia, too. His frustration with Putin’s intransigence earlier this year led to long-range strike permissions for Ukraine, sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, and pressure on India to reduce oil purchases. Meanwhile, Ukraine, Europe, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have done enough to ensure that Washington won’t restrict intelligence sharing with Kyiv or block Ukrainian deep strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. More importantly, the United States no longer holds all the cards. Washington is selling weapons and providing intelligence, but European nations are now fully funding Ukraine’s war effort. That gives Europe real leverage. Whether they leverage Russia’s frozen assets or issue more common debt, European leaders have made clear they won’t let Ukraine lose for lack of money. So the war will grind through another round of failed talks, another winter, probably another spring. Russian forces will keep trying to take more ground. Ukraine will keep defending while striking Russian infrastructure. The human and economic costs will mount. Ukrainians’ position will likely deteriorate, even as Russians pay an enormous price in blood and treasure for limited gains. There won’t be enough willingness to compromise anytime soon. I wish that weren't the case. But when the parties' core objectives are fundamentally incompatible, no amount of external pressure or diplomacy can bridge the gap. Peace will come eventually – when the battlefield and material circumstances force it. It won't come from the current diplomatic push, no matter how much Trump wants it.

### Ultra-Orthodox conscription to divide Israel’s parliament again Here we go again: Israel’s Knesset is once more _considering_ a bill that would force certain ultra-Orthodox Jewish men, who are part of the Haredi sect, to serve in the military – just like the rest of the country. There’s a difference this time: support for Haredi conscription _jumped_ during the course of the two-year war with Hamas, with 85% _backing_ it as of July. In an attempt to get it through parliament, the latest bill hedges a little, granting exemptions to Haredi Jews who are in full-time education. This has _prompted_ fresh fury from many lawmakers who don’t believe the bill goes far enough – including some from Prime Minister **Benjamin Netanyahu** ’s Likud party. Will the issue collapse Netanyahu’s government for a third time? * * * ### France and China meet with trade and Ukraine on the table French President **Emmanuel Macron** arrived in China on Wednesday for a three-day state visit where trade is expected to be high on the agenda. France – and the EU overall – has a massive trade imbalance with China, with Beijing accounting for _46%_ of France’s total trade deficit. Macron is expected to try to balance the bill a bit, pushing for greater market access for French exports and more investment in French companies. The Russia-Ukraine war is also on the agenda, with the French president hoping he can convince China to use its leverage over Russia to hinder its ability to continue the war. China has been _accused_ of providing technology to Russia and helping it avoid international sanctions. ### Putin makes high-stakes visit to India Russia’s president _begins_ a three-day official visit to India tomorrow, his first since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The visit comes amid intense US pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil. Deals are expected on agriculture, pharma, and Indian migrant labor, but the spotlight is on energy and weapons. India has recently _reduced its reliance_ on Russia for both, but Moscow remains a key supplier – rumors abound of a potential blockbuster deal for Russian fighter jets. The optics matter: Putin wants to show that he still has powerful friends outside of the US and Europe. Indian Prime Minister **Narendra Modi** , meanwhile, has a trickier balancing act: to underscore India’s strategic independence without further angering its long-standing partners in the world’s largest economy.

Last fall, Haiti created a transitional presidential council tasked with regaining control over the gang-ravaged Caribbean country and ushering in elections by February 2026. On Tuesday, the transitional government passed a _law_ calling for elections in August, missing the original deadline but calming fears that leaders intended to indefinitely delay the vote to stay in power. But calling an election and actually steering a country toward democracy are two very different challenges. Especially when gangs control an estimated _90%_ of the capital and are continuing to expand their influence across the country. Gang violence, once concentrated in the capital Port-au-Prince, has spread deep into southern and central Haiti, particularly the Artibonite and Centre provinces. One in four people now live in _gang-controlled_ neighborhoods. While it's impossible to know exactly how large the gangs are, **Juan Marquez** , head of the country office for UN Office on Drugs and Crime in Haiti says their ranks are rapidly outpacing the state’s security forces. “Poverty and inequality are major fuel for the population to end up joining gangs. It becomes a source of revenue for individuals who do not have any other kinds of livelihoods.” * * * The cascade of gang activity has left Haitians with fewer safe places to flee, made armed groups harder to police, and further eroded what remains of state authority. This weekend, one of the deadliest assaults of the year left half of central Artibonite under gang control. Survivors fled toward the coast, pleading for the government to intervene — or to arm them so they are able to defend themselves. Furious _demonstrators_ later tried to storm the mayor’s office, _vowing_ to “take justice into [their] own hands.” "It's a natural response because at the end of the day,” Marquez said, “the state cannot be present in a lot of these territories so the communities are coming together to protect themselves although this might represent a risk for the future." As state authority crumbles, criminal groups are filling the void. They have tightened their grip on key trade routes, allowing them to extort the population and drive up the cost of essentials like cooking fuel and rice. The result: more than half the country — about 5.7 million people — are facing severe food shortages. And with gangs now in control of ports and key strategic corridors, Marquez says that “transnational organized crime is fueling the security crisis,” turning the country into a hub for drug trafficking. A record 1,045 kilograms of cocaine was seized in July 2025, Haiti’s largest drug bust in over 30 years. Meanwhile, The Department of Homeland Security announced that temporary immigration protections for Haitians in the US will end on Feb. 3, slating _348,000_ people for deportation. Haiti was also included in the list of countries from which the US is _pausing_ green card and citizenship applications. The international response has been insufficient. A UN-backed multinational mission led by Kenyan police deployed to Haiti last year to help confront the spiraling violence. But it remains understaffed and underfunded, with only about 40% of the 2,500 personnel originally envisioned. With a depleted national police force, an underdeveloped army, and a multinational mission lacking sufficient resources, experts warn that gangs will continue to hold the upper hand without far stronger international backing. Until then, Haiti’s transitional government faces the monumental task of restoring security and delivering an electoral process in a country where Marquez says the very notion of state control is rapidly slipping away. "Little by little, the gangs have been gaining more leverage, more territorial control, and more fire power.”

**1:** The family of**Alejandro Carranza Medina** from Colombia became the _first_ to file a formal complaint related to the US boat bombings in the Caribbean, alleging to the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights on Tuesday that Medina was illegally killed in an airstrike by the US military. The US claims that the bombing targeted a suspected drug boat, but the Medina family’s complaint claims the victim was a fisherman, and that he was unjustly killed. **** * * * **€210 billion:** The European Union is considering a workaround that would allow it to raise up to _€210 billion_ ($245 billion) for Ukraine, using emergency powers to nullify the veto of countries like Hungary and ease Belgium’s concerns over who would have to repay the loan. The funds would be backed by frozen Russian assets in Europe. **9:** Republican**Matt Van Epps** won Tennessee’s special US House election by a narrower-than-expected _nine_-point margin, despite US President **Donald Trump** ’s strong backing and heavy GOP spending. Democrat **Aftyn Behn** ’s above-expectation performance in the red district energized Democrats, who say the result signals GOP vulnerability ahead of the midterms. **11:** The search for the wreckage of the missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370, which disappeared while flying 239 people from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in 2014, will resume on Dec. 30 – over _11 years_ since the crash. Exploration firm Ocean Infinity is conducting this latest search, and with a large incentive: it would receive $70 million if it finds the wreckage. **$250:** Computer magnates **Michael** and **Susan Dell** pledged to deposit _$250_ into the accounts of 25 million children born between 2016 and 2024. The couple will invest $6.25 billion in total. The accounts will complement the $1,000-accounts that the White House will grant to children born during the second Trump administration.

Ian Bremmer breaks down why the latest Russia-Ukraine “peace push” is headed back to Moscow and why the outlook is bleak. * * * President Trump wants the war over regardless of the consequences for Ukraine or Europe. That means applying pressure to the weaker party, and with Kyiv rocked by a major corruption scandal and the fall of chief of staff Andriy Yermak, Ukraine is now more vulnerable diplomatically. Russia knows this. Rather than proposing terms Ukraine might accept, Putin is putting forward maximalist demands designed to look like engagement while ensuring rejection, hoping Trump’s team will blame Kyiv and peel Europeans away. With Europe now providing almost all financial support to Ukraine, divisions between Washington and key NATO allies make a meaningful agreement even less likely. “The war continues, people die, and Ukraine’s final position could be worse,” Ian warns. A small silver lining: Jared Kushner has joined the negotiations and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is asserting more independence. But for now, Ian says, the prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal is not heading in a positive direction.

**515:** There are close presidential races, and then there’s the one in Honduras, where just _515 votes_ separate the top two candidates following Sunday’s election in the Central American nation. Officials say that former Tegucigalpa Mayor **Nasry Asfura** and former sports broadcaster**Salvador Nasralla** are locked in a “technical tie.” Officials are still tallying the votes, and have called for patience. * * * **17:** Japan’s two-year government bond yield jumped above 1% for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis _17 years ago_ after Bank of Japan Governor **Kazuo Ueda** suggested the central bank would raise interest rates later this month. Ueda’s comments had ripple effects far beyond Japan’s borders, too: US and German bonds also took a hit. **9 million:** Rare exceptions aside, humans have escaped death from bird flu. The same cannot be said for avian animals, as almost _nine million_ poultry birds have been culled globally since October. Cattle, pigs, cats, & dogs have also been infected with the current strain of the disease. Experts are monitoring the virus in case it mutates into something that’s more harmful to people. **22:** Former Rep. **Mark Green** , a Republican who _retired_ from Congress in July, won Tennessee’s 7th District by _22 points_ last year, but today’s special election to replace him looks set to be a lot closer. _Polls_ show that Republican **Matt Van Epps** has an edge over Democrat **Aftyn Behn** , but not by much – one recent survey found the gap at just two points. A GOP defeat would be _another warning sign_ for the party ahead of the midterms.

### Washington is growing uncomfortable with Venezuela strike The White House sought to _shift blame_ away from Secretary of War **Pete Hegseth** on Monday, instead declaring that Admiral**Frank Bradley** ordered the killing of two people on a boat – even after the boat was destroyed. A _report_ from the _The New York Times_ undermined the original _Washington Post_ _report_ over Hegseth’s role in the strikes, appearing to affirm the White House’s position. Nonetheless, Congress is questioning whether this move constitutes a war crime. Even Sen. **Jim Justice**(R-WV), who represents the second-reddest state, _criticized_ the second strike. The domestic uproar comes as it emerged that US President **Donald Trump** _refused_ Venezuelan dictator**Nicolas Maduro’s** amnesty requests during a Nov. 21 phone call. Is a US hit on Caracas now imminent? * * * ### Tax protests rock Bulgaria Tens of thousands of people _took to the streets_ of the Bulgarian capital, Sofia, to protest a new budget that would raise taxes to pay for expanded social services. Several dozen people were arrested after clashing with the police. What’s at issue? Bulgaria is the most corrupt EU country, _according to_ Transparency International, so when people hear “higher taxes” they mostly hear “thicker lining for officials’ pockets.” The protests have thrown the fate of the ruling center-right government into doubt just weeks before Bulgaria finally joins the Eurozone. If the government falls, Bulgarians would head into their eighth general election in the past four years. ### China-Japan coastguard faceoff in disputed waters There’s tension in the East China Sea after China and Japan’s coast guards faced off near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. China _said_ that its coast guard took “necessary” action after a Japanese fishing boat illegally entered its waters. Meanwhile Japan attested that Chinese vessels intruded into Japanese waters and threatened a fishing boat. The incident comes amid worsening China-Japan ties after the new Japanese Prime Minister **Sanae Takaichi** suggested Japan could respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan. Meanwhile, both sides have militarized their coast guards in recent years and are increasing their patrols near the islands, upping the risk of confrontation in an area that has been a long-running flashpoint in the East China Sea.

It hasn’t been an easy year for Ukrainian President **Volodymyr Zelensky** – and not just because Russia is still invading his country. US President **Donald Trump** ’s return to office heralded a sharp slowdown in new White House spending on Ukraine – it has dropped to _virtually zero_ this year. Europe has made up for some of the shortfall, but is now struggling to _find new funds_ for the war effort. Further, the US recently _authored_ a plan that would force Ukraine to relinquish sizable parts of its territory. Now, a _corruption scandal_ is engulfing the Ukrainian leader, forcing his top aide, **Andriy Yermak** , to _resign_. Yermak was officially Zelensky’s chief of staff, but reportedly held a far greater role – he was also the vice president, lead negotiator, and held vast powers on economic and security matters. His exit will thus leave a major void in Zelensky’s government. **** * * * **What this means for peace negotiations.** The Trump administration _believes_ that the corruption scandal will make Zelensky more willing to accept a peace agreement – even one that includes measures that have been red lines for Kyiv. Trump has been publicly pressuring the Ukrainian leader, dishing out another ultimatum for accepting a deal that involves giving up land in exchange for security guarantees. The message seemed to fall on amenable ears: Zelensky _told_ his countrymen on Nov. 21 that he must either accept a deal or lose the US as an ally. Washington and Kyiv reportedly made a little more progress during talks in Miami over the weekend. **Not so fast.** There’s just one problem with the White House’s belief that it can pressure Zelensky into accepting a deal: Ukrainian soldiers _don’t support_ the US peace plan, and Ukrainians at large increasingly believe that Washington is trying to force Kyiv to accept an unfair peace deal, according to _polling_ from the Kyiv International Institute of Technology. If Zelensky accepts a bad deal, it might further harm his domestic standing. “Zelensky’s political problems arguably make it even harder for him to make any major concessions to secure a cease-fire,” said Eurasia Group’s Eastern Europe expert **Alex Brideau**. “While the public wants negotiations and an end to the war, it does not support a deal that meets Russian demands on territory and neutrality.” **What does Zelensky want?** He is focused on “obtaining security guarantees from Western partners that would protect the country from any future Russian invasion,” said Brideau. The US has offered this to Ukraine, but with the caveat that they must hand land to Russia that the Kremlin hasn’t yet taken – something the comedian-turned-wartime leader isn’t ready to do. As such, Zelensky on Monday _turned_ to a more sympathetic ally for support: Europe. The continent has been Ukraine’s principal supporter this year, and was _quietly aghast_ at the 28-point peace proposal that the US released last month. After meeting with Ukraine’s leader in Paris, French President **Emmanuel Macron** reiterated that it was up to Kyiv whether it chooses to cede territory. **Not rushing yet.** Zelensky wants to make a deal “as quickly as he can,” per Brideau. The Ukrainian leader even said that “now more than ever, there is a chance to end this war,” while visiting Ireland on Tuesday. However, he isn’t time-constrained, in large part because Ukraine _refuses_ to hold an election during wartime – Zelensky’s five-year term technically expired 18 months ago. “Under martial law, Ukraine cannot hold national elections,” says Brideau. “Until there is a path for a lasting cease-fire, the government will keep renewing the martial law declaration every three months.” If there was an election, _recent_ _polling_ suggests that Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom **Valerii Zaluzhnyi** would defeat Zelensky in a hypothetical race. The incumbent leader, though, has said that he would step down if the war _ended_. For all the various negotiations that have taken place between Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington, this isn’t necessarily going to happen imminently. “A quick deal will remain elusive,” said Brideau, “given the wide gulf between Russia and Ukraine on their core demands and insufficient external pressure to force a change by one or both.”

**Ian Bremme** r breaks down **President Trump** ’s ultimatum to Venezuelan leader **Nicolás Maduro** , “leave with your family or be removed,” and why US military action now appears imminent. * * * With America’s naval power and 15,000 troops positioned off Venezuela’s coast, Ian argues Trump wouldn’t make such a threat unless he intends to act. But the motive isn’t democracy: “Trump doesn’t care if you’re a dictator or a democrat,” Ian says. Instead, he sees incentives tied to drugs entering the US and Venezuela’s massive oil reserves. The risks, however, are huge. From civilian exposure around Maduro to regional opposition from **Mexico** , **Colombia** , **Brazil** , and **Europe** , and little domestic support, a unilateral US operation could be messy, unpopular, and dangerous. “I hope it goes well,” Ian admits, “but I think it’s a very bad idea, and that doesn’t make it unlikely.”

Youth unemployment is making headlines from China to Canada, with many countries’ rates at historic highs. While the global youth unemployment rate for 2025 is projected to be slightly lower than that of 2020, at 12.8%, regional disparities abound. In developed countries, four in five workers aged 24-29 have a regular paid job, but in developing countries, that number is only one in five. Analysts blame the lingering fallout from COVID-19, economic uncertainty from trade wars, and the advent of artificial intelligence. The fallout is fueling Gen Z discontent, creating migration pressures, and threatening social unrest in nations around the globe. **** * * * **The hot spots.** Africa’s youth has been struggling, with an estimated 26.1% of those aged 15-24 not in employment, education or training as of 2022. At the same time, Africa’s population is the youngest on the planet – and projected to have the greatest growth in the next fifty years. Lack of employment prospects have already spawned Gen Z demonstrations in Kenya and Morocco, and a growing population could exacerbate that trend. In contrast, many Asian countries, including Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, and Singapore, are experiencing demographic decline – but employment prospects for youth are also dropping. China’s official youth unemployment rate, which excludes students, reached a peak of 18.9% in August, before declining to 17.3% in October. South Korea’s youth unemployment rate hit 5.3% that same month, due to an increase in young graduates unable to find work. And in Nepal youth unemployment sits north of 20% – a factor in violent youth-led protests that toppled the country’s government in September. South America is also experiencing high youth unemployment and attendant social unrest. According to the International Labor Organization, the youth unemployment rate is triple that of adults, with 60% of young people employed on the black market, without workplace rights and social protections. This year has seen Gen Z protests hit Peru and Mexico, over corruption, crime, poor job prospects, and the cost of living. **Why are young people failing to find work?** From 2020-2023, the COVID-19 pandemic locked millions of young people out of classrooms and first jobs, delaying their entry into the labor market and widening skill gaps. Today, trade wars have caused further economic disruption: countries like Canada and China report layoffs and hiring freezes of young people due to high US tariffs and accompanying economic uncertainty. But the top reason is AI, which is gobbling up clerical, customer-service and entry-level jobs that used to absorb first-time workers, particularly university graduates. Some popular disciplines, like computer science, have cratered: a report by the United Kingdom’s National Foundation for Education Research found a 50% decline in job advertisements for software development and IT between 2020 and 2025, with four times as many postings for senior than junior programming roles. Another report by the British Standards Institution surveyed 850 business leaders across the UK, US, France, Germany, Australia, China and Japan: 39% said they had cut entry-level roles and replaced them with AI. **For geopolitics, that means three things.** Gen Z protests could multiply, with frustrated out-of-work young people demanding change. If states cannot deliver it, they could clamp down, such as by using digital repression to prevent tech-savvy youth from mobilizing – a tactic already deployed in Nepal, China, and many African nations. Unemployed young people will also put pressure on migration channels, notably to Europe and North America. Over half of young people in several North African nations report a desire to emigrate. Young Indonesians use the hashtag #JustRunAwayFirst to describe their frustration with domestic job prospects. The UN reported that 72 million international migrants originated from Asia in 2024, 13% more than in 2020, due in part to a sense of “futurelessness.” The social contract could fray, including in authoritarian states. Prior to 2014, most Chinese believed that inequality was largely the result of individual failings in an ascendant China. By 2023, the majority blamed inequality on unequal opportunities, corruption, and a failing economy. Beijing is reportedly concerned about “involution,” a term that describes the feeling of futility young people feel about their lack of job prospects and ability to afford the “good life.”

### Is the US attack on Venezuela imminent? US President **Donald Trump** announced on Saturday that the airspace above Venezuela should be seen as “ _closed in its entirety_.” Caracas _slammed_ the move and said it contravenes international law, while its citizens _prepare_ for strikes. Trump’s announcement comes two days after he said the US would _commence_ land strikes on the South American nation of over 26 million people – the White House has also been bombing boats in the Caribbean and _building_ up its military presence there for months now. Amid signs that an invasion is imminent, there is also _discontent emerging_ in Washington about the potential action, after a Washington Post _report_ found that Secretary of War **Pete Hegseth** ordered the US military to kill two people on a drug-carrying boat – even after the boat had been destroyed. Trump will _convene_ a meeting on Venezuela this evening. * * * ### Honduras’ election couldn’t be closer Hondurans went to the polls yesterday to choose between two conservative candidates, former Tegucigalpa Mayor **Nasry Asfura** and former sports broadcaster **Salvador Nasralla**. Early results show that the two are neck in neck, with just 4,000 votes separating them. Their campaigns focused on jobs and crime, as Honduras has the highest homicide rate in Central America and unemployment hovers at _5.2%_. US President **Donald Trump** has also weighed in, endorsing Asfura and saying he was the only candidate the White House would work with. Trump also pardoned the former president of Asfura’s party on Friday. As the vote rolls in with no clear winner yet, the candidates are showing signs that they may not accept the results, trading _accusations_ of election fixing. ### Skepticism of migrants and refugees spreads to developing nations Amid burgeoning tensions with the Taliban, Pakistan has been rapidly expelling Afghans from its territory, _removing_ one million of the three million Afghans from its borders this year alone. Many have never lived in Afghanistan. Pakistan isn’t the only developing country growing skeptical of migrants and refugees from war-torn nations: Uganda, once a safe haven for Africans fleeing war – as well as Afghans – has _announced_ new restrictions on which refugees it will accept. Egypt, Kenya, and Somalia, are also moving to limit refugee arrivals. Where will those who are fleeing Afghanistan, the Sudan civil war, and other internal conflicts go?